The demographic benefit of international migration : hypothesis and application to the Middle Eastern and North African contexts

The view that international migration has no impact on the size of world population is a sensible one. But the author argues, migration from developing to more industrial countries during the past decades may have resulted in a smaller world population than the one which would have been attained had no international migration taken place for two reasons: most of recent migration has been from high to low birth-rate countries, and migrants typically adopt and send back to their home countries models and ideas that prevail in host countries. Thus, migrants are potential agents of the diffusion of demographic modernity, that is, the reduction of birth rates among nonmigrant communities left behind in origin countries. This hypothesis is tested with data from Morocco and Turkey where most emigrants are bound for the West, and Egypt where they are bound for the Gulf. The demographic differentials encountered through migration in these three countries offer contrasted situations-host countries are either more (the West) or less (the Gulf) advanced in their demographic transition than the home country. Assuming migration changes the course of demographic transition in origin countries, the author posits that it should work in two opposite directions-speeding it up in Morocco and Turkey and slowing it down in Egypt. Empirical evidence confirms this hypothesis. Time series of birth rates and migrant remittances (reflecting the intensity of the relationship kept by emigrants with their home country) are strongly correlated with each other. Correlation is negative for Morocco and Turkey, and positive for Egypt. This suggests that Moroccan and Turkish emigration to Europe has been accompanied by a fundamental change of attitudes regarding marriage and birth, while Egyptian migration to the Gulf has not brought home innovative attitudes in this domain, but rather material resources for the achievement of traditional family goals. Other data suggest that emigration has fostered education in Morocco and Turkey but not in Egypt. And as has been found in the literature, education is the single most important determinant of demographic transition among nonmigrant populations in migrants'regions of origin. Two broader conclusions are drawn. First, the acceleration of the demographic transition in Morocco and Turkey is correlated with migration to Europe, a region where low birth-rates is the dominant pattern. This suggests that international migration may have produced a global demographic benefit under the form of a relaxation of demographic pressures for the world as a whole. Second, if it turns out that emigrants are conveyors of new ideas in matters related with family and education, then the same may apply to a wider range of civil behavior.Population Policies,Gender and Social Development,Anthropology,Voluntary and Involuntary Resettlement,Human Migrations&Resettlements

International migration and education : a web of mutual causation

Paper commissioned for the Global Education Monitoring Report 2019 Consultation on MigrationAfter reviewing the various definitions of international migration and refugee situations, the paper proposes a general framework in which to capture the complex two-way relationship between education and migration, and its consequences on both migrants and non-migrants in each of the origin and destination countries. It successively reviews: the over-education of migrants compared to non-migrants and the selection processes at play in origin and destination countries; the debate surrounding highly-educated migration from developing to developed countries and the inconclusive evidence regarding losses and gains for countries and individuals; the different ways in which migration impacts the education of non-migrant children in the origin countries through financial, but also ideational remittances; the school performances of migrant children and the various consequences of diversity in the classrooms for children of both migrant and local origin; the challenge of educating refugee children and avoiding that a whole generation be lost. The paper concludes on the many grey areas in our understanding of a crucial connexion and suggests practical steps to improve knowledge

Europe must take on its share of the Syrian refugee burden, but how?

While peace talks between Syria’s government and opposition entered into deadlock in Geneva, battles rage on the ground, and the death toll and the refugee wave rise. Europe wanted its voice to be heard in the talks, but can it keep its eyes — and borders — closed to the men, women and children fleeing Syria? How can Europe better respond to the human and political disaster looming on its external border?The MPC is co-financed by the European University Institute and the European Union

Building a knowledge-based economy and nationalising jobs in Kuwait: assessing compatibility of these national objectives

The Government of Kuwait is keen to free the country from a double dependency, on oil exports and labour imports. The challenge is to transform a weak demography into strong human capital and build a knowledge-based economy. But will nationals or foreign nationals be the main holders of the needed knowledge? Universities that had an impressive start fifty years ago began to retreat towards the end of the last century, and the proportion of graduates to decline in recent generations. Time has come on the one hand to establish greater links between universities and the labour market, and on the other to ensure more and better paid job opportunities for graduates in the private sector.Le gouvernement du Koweït souhaite libérer le pays d'une double dépendance, en matière d'exportations d'hydrocarbures et d'importations de main-d'oeuvre. Comment transformer une démographie faible en capital humain fort afin de construire une économie du savoir, tel est le défi. Qui seront les détenteurs du savoir: les nationaux ou les résidents étrangers? Après des débuts spectaculaires il y a cinquante ans, les universités du pays ont commencé à ralentir vers la fin du siècle dernier, et la proportion de diplômés à décliner parmi les jeunes générations. Le temps est venu d'établir un lien plus fort entre universités et marché du travail, et de revaloriser l'embauche de diplômés par le secteur privé

The European response to the Syrian refugee crisis : what next?

Although over 450,000 Syrians fled to countries nearby Syria, numbers seeking refuge within the EU remain small. In 2011, a total of 8,920 Syrians applied for asylum within EU borders, while in the first three quarters of 2012 applications increased slightly, reaching a total of 11,573. Only 1,490 irregular entries of Syrians were recorded during the last three quarters of 2011, which rose to 2,739 in the first two quarters of 2012. Numbers of Syrians applying for immigration have also remained negligible. In light of the overall magnitude of the crisis compared with the actual numbers reaching Europe, this paper reviews EU’s response to the crisis. First, it presents the facts: a historical review of displacements from Syria, the numbers, and the route of travel for Syrian refugees, migrants, and asylum seekers to Europe. This is followed by a review of European responses to the Syrian crisis. Finally, the paper concludes with recommendations for addressing the Syrian refugee crisis. In short, the EU could consider: establishing a Regional Protection Programme (RPP) with a large increase of Syrian refugee resettlement as a required component; increasing refugee resettlement for those who have been affected by the Syrian crisis and are the most in need; continue positive asylum procedures throughout the EU, and grant prima facie recognition including provision of sufficient assistance to Syrian asylum seekers; encourage visa facilitation and family reunification for Syrians; and continue to work with its international partners to find a political and humanitarian solution to the Syrian crisis.The MPC is co-financed by the European University Institute and the European Union

L'urbanisation du monde arabe : un éclairage démographique

Les politiques restent préoccupés par la croissance urbaine : c'est ainsi que le thème « répartition de la population, urbanisation et migrations internes » occupait 25 des 399 paragraphes, soit 6 %, du Programme d'action de la Conférence internationale sur la population et le développement du Caire de septembre 1994. Que Le Caire fût élu, neuf jours durant (du 5 au 13 septembre 1994), capitale de la démographie mondiale était d'ailleurs doublement emblématique : de la fixation sur la ville d..

Note sur la diffusion de l’instruction scolaire d’après les recensements égyptiens

Désormais familière dans le paysage comme dans l'expérience ordinaire des personnes, l'école était pratiquement absente de l'un et de l'autre au siècle dernier. Sa diffusion, au cours des cent dernières années, aura obéi à quelques lois simples qui en ont déterminé la forme : 1°) l'instruction scolaire n'est dispensée qu'aux enfants, à des âges relativement bien délimités pour une classe donnée ; 2°) le niveau atteint au sortir de l'école demeure au-delà de l'âge auquel il a été atteint, si b..

La montée du chômage en Égypte (1960-1995)

Parmi les arguments qui remettent en question le classement usuel des États entre pays industriels et pays en développement, la montée du chômage au cours des deux dernières décennies devrait venir en bonne place tant elle semble transcender cet ordre binaire du monde. Avec un étonnant synchronisme, on l'enregistre dans les contextes nationaux les plus divers, comme si le chômage relevait au contraire d'un ordre global, faisait partie des évolutions partagées et manifestait lui aussi cette in..

We do not need migrants

The idea that Europe has a large enough population and would fare better with fewer immigrants is typically a very short term vision. Europe’s population projections show a dramatic trend of decrease and ageing that, in the absence of immigration, will translate into: an unprecedented reduction in Europe’s demographic weight in the world; the unsustainability of its welfare systems; the ageing of its skill

Drowned Europe

The drowning of 800 migrants, 19 April 2015, after the capsizing of a smuggling boat, triggered responses from across Europe. But when EU leaders met four days later, the news-cycle had moved on and the European Council, 23 April, gave a disappointing response. The 28 agreed to scale up their joint search-and-rescue efforts at sea to the more substantial efforts of what Italy has achieved alone in the last year. There were, also, a handful of other minor actions. Mr Junker, President of the Commission, lamented that the EU should be more ambitious. He was right, in as much as the EU meeting will not sustainably curb the deadly trends we have seen in the Mediterranean in recent years.The MPC is co-financed by the European University Institute and the European Union