Trends in Malaria Cases, Hospital Admissions and Deaths Following Scale-Up of Anti-Malarial Interventions, 2000–2010, Rwanda

Background: To control malaria, the Rwandan government and its partners distributed insecticide-treated nets (ITN) and made artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) widely available from 2005 onwards. The impact of these interventions on malaria cases, admissions and deaths was assessed using data from district hospitals and household surveys. Methods: District records of ITN and ACT distribution were reviewed. Malaria and non-malaria indictors in 30 district hospitals were ascertained from surveillance records. Trends in cases, admissions and deaths for 2000 to 2010 were assessed by segmented log-linear regression, adjusting the effect size for time trends during the pre-intervention period, 2000–2005. Changes were estimated by comparing trends in post-intervention (2006–2010) with that of pre-intervention (2000–2005) period. All-cause deaths in children under-five in household surveys of 2005 and 2010 were also reviewed to corroborate with the trends of deaths observed in hospitals. Results: The proportion of the population potentially protected by ITN increased from nearly zero in 2005 to 38% in 2006, and 76% in 2010; no major health facility stock-outs of ACT were recorded following their introduction in 2006. In district hospitals, after falling during 2006–2008, confirmed malaria cases increased in 2009 coinciding with decreased potential ITN coverage and declined again in 2010 following an ITN distribution campaign. For all age groups, from the pre-intervention period, microscopically confirmed cases declined by 72%, (95% Confidence Interval [CI], 12-91%) in 2010, slide positivity rate declined 58%, (CI, 47%–68%), malaria inpatient cases declined 76% (CI, 49%–88%); and malaria deaths declined 47% (CI, 47%–81%). In children below five years of age, malaria inpatients decreased 82% (CI, 61%-92%) and malaria hospital deaths decreased 77% (CI, 40%–91%). Concurrently, outpatient cases, admissions and deaths due to non-malaria diseases in all age groups either increased or remained unchanged. Rainfall and temperature remained favourable for malaria transmission. The annual all-cause mortality in children under-five in household surveys declined from 152 per 1,000 live births during 2001–2005, to 76 per 1,000 live births in 2006–2010 (55% decline). The five-year cumulative number of all-cause deaths in hospital declined 28% (8,051 to 5,801) during the same period. Conclusions: A greater than 50% decline in confirmed malaria cases, admissions and deaths at district hospitals in Rwanda since 2005 followed a marked increase in ITN coverage and use of ACT. The decline occurred among both children under-five and in those five years and above, while hospital utilization increased and suitable conditions for malaria transmission persisted. Declines in malaria indicators in children under 5 years were more striking than in the older age groups. The resurgence in cases associated with decreased ITN coverage in 2009 highlights the need for sustained high levels of anti-malarial interventions in Rwanda and other malaria endemic countries

Major Reduction in Anti-Malarial Drug Consumption in Senegal after Nation-Wide Introduction of Malaria Rapid Diagnostic Tests

BACKGROUND: While WHO recently recommended universal parasitological confirmation of suspected malaria prior to treatment, debate has continued as to whether wide-scale use of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) can achieve this goal. Adherence of health service personnel to RDT results has been poor in some settings, with little impact on anti-malarial drug consumption. The Senegal national malaria control programme introduced universal parasite-based diagnosis using malaria RDTs from late 2007 in all public health facilities. This paper assesses the impact of this programme on anti-malarial drug consumption and disease reporting. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Nationally-collated programme data from 2007 to 2009 including malaria diagnostic outcomes, prescription of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and consumption of RDTs in public health facilities, were reviewed and compared. Against a marked seasonal variation in all-cause out-patient visits, non-malarial fever and confirmed malaria, parasite-based diagnosis increased nationally from 3.9% of reported malaria-like febrile illness to 86.0% over a 3 year period. The prescription of ACT dropped throughout this period from 72.9% of malaria-like febrile illness to 31.5%, reaching close equivalence to confirmed malaria (29.9% of 584,873 suspect fever cases). An estimated 516,576 courses of inappropriate ACT prescription were averted. CONCLUSIONS: The data indicate high adherence of anti-malarial prescribing practice to RDT results after an initial run-in period. The large reduction in ACT consumption enabled by the move from symptom-based to parasite-based diagnosis demonstrates that effective roll-out and use of malaria RDTs is achievable on a national scale through well planned and structured implementation. While more detailed information on management of parasite-negative cases is required at point of care level to assess overall cost-benefits to the health sector, considerable cost-savings were achieved in ACT procurement. Programmes need to be allowed flexibility in management of these funds to address increases in other programmatic costs that may accrue from improved diagnosis of febrile disease

Accelerating Progress Towards the 2030 Neglected Tropical Diseases Targets: How Can Quantitative Modeling Support Programmatic Decisions?

Over the past decade, considerable progress has been made in the control, elimination, and eradication of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Despite these advances, most NTD programs have recently experienced important setbacks; for example, NTD interventions were some of the most frequently and severely impacted by service disruptions due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Mathematical modeling can help inform selection of interventions to meet the targets set out in the NTD road map 2021-2030, and such studies should prioritize questions that are relevant for decision-makers, especially those designing, implementing, and evaluating national and subnational programs. In September 2022, the World Health Organization hosted a stakeholder meeting to identify such priority modeling questions across a range of NTDs and to consider how modeling could inform local decision making. Here, we summarize the outputs of the meeting, highlight common themes in the questions being asked, and discuss how quantitative modeling can support programmatic decisions that may accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

INTRODUCTION Investment in Africa over the past year with regard to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, which, to date, exceeds 100,000 sequences generated to track the pandemic on the continent. These sequences have profoundly affected how public health officials in Africa have navigated the COVID-19 pandemic. RATIONALE We demonstrate how the first 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Africa have helped monitor the epidemic on the continent, how genomic surveillance expanded over the course of the pandemic, and how we adapted our sequencing methods to deal with an evolving virus. Finally, we also examine how viral lineages have spread across the continent in a phylogeographic framework to gain insights into the underlying temporal and spatial transmission dynamics for several variants of concern (VOCs). RESULTS Our results indicate that the number of countries in Africa that can sequence the virus within their own borders is growing and that this is coupled with a shorter turnaround time from the time of sampling to sequence submission. Ongoing evolution necessitated the continual updating of primer sets, and, as a result, eight primer sets were designed in tandem with viral evolution and used to ensure effective sequencing of the virus. The pandemic unfolded through multiple waves of infection that were each driven by distinct genetic lineages, with B.1-like ancestral strains associated with the first pandemic wave of infections in 2020. Successive waves on the continent were fueled by different VOCs, with Alpha and Beta cocirculating in distinct spatial patterns during the second wave and Delta and Omicron affecting the whole continent during the third and fourth waves, respectively. Phylogeographic reconstruction points toward distinct differences in viral importation and exportation patterns associated with the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants and subvariants, when considering both Africa versus the rest of the world and viral dissemination within the continent. Our epidemiological and phylogenetic inferences therefore underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic on the continent and highlight key insights and challenges, for instance, recognizing the limitations of low testing proportions. We also highlight the early warning capacity that genomic surveillance in Africa has had for the rest of the world with the detection of new lineages and variants, the most recent being the characterization of various Omicron subvariants. CONCLUSION Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve. This is important not only to help combat SARS-CoV-2 on the continent but also because it can be used as a platform to help address the many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats in Africa. In particular, capacity building for local sequencing within countries or within the continent should be prioritized because this is generally associated with shorter turnaround times, providing the most benefit to local public health authorities tasked with pandemic response and mitigation and allowing for the fastest reaction to localized outbreaks. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century

Summary of types of maps used in most recent available report by country.

<p>Summary of types of maps used in most recent available report by country.</p

Maps used in NMS, GF applications, MPRs; dates of report and evidence of sub-national planning.

#<p>See <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0053198#pone-0053198-t001" target="_blank">Table 1</a> for definitions of map codes (1–11);</p>*<p>E: NMS goal is elimination;</p>**<p>PE: NMS aims to achieve pre-elimination;</p>&<p>M&E plan available; Cells shaded in grey indicate that no report is available.</p

Map showing types of the most recent malaria maps used by NMCPs in Global Fund applications, National Malaria Strategies, and Malaria Programme Reviews.

<p>Map showing types of the most recent malaria maps used by NMCPs in Global Fund applications, National Malaria Strategies, and Malaria Programme Reviews.</p

Description of codes for map types used by NMCPs.

<p>Description of codes for map types used by NMCPs.</p