Introducing a genetically modified banana in Uganda: Social benefits, costs, and consumer perceptions

"Banana is a staple crop consumed by Ugandan households. The Uganda National Agricultural Research Organization has implemented conventional and biotechnology programs that seek improving bananas and address the crop's most important pest and disease problems. A major thrust is the development of genetically modified (GM) bananas. The purpose of this paper is to examine potential social welfare impacts of adopting a GM banana in Uganda. The study has three objectives. First, suggest and apply an approach to calculate reversible and irreversible benefits and costs of introducing a GM banana. The study applies a real option approach to estimate, ex ante, the maximum incremental social tolerable irreversible costs (MISTICs) that would justify immediate introduction of the technology. Second, suggest an approach for assessing producer/consumer preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for introducing a GM banana. Finally, the paper discusses main implications for biosafety decision making for GM crops in Uganda. Results of MISTICs estimation for different scenarios indicate that in delaying the approval of a GM banana, Uganda foregoes potential annual benefits ranging approximately from US$179 million to US$365 million. Average annual MISTICs per household vary between US$34 and US$ 69. Results indicate that only if the average household is willing to give up at least US$38 per year to avoid introduction of a GM banana, should postponing an immediate release be considered. Results imply that although GM bananas promise vast benefits, realization of those benefits depends on consumers' perceptions and attitudes and the willingness to pay for the GM technology." from Author's AbstractGM banana, Real option, Choice experiment, Biosafety, MISTICs,

Parables: applied economics literature about the impact of genetically engineered crop varieties in developing economies

"A vast literature has accumulated since crop varieties with transgenic resistance to insects and herbicide tolerance were released to farmers in 1996 and 1997. A comparatively minor segment of this literature consists of studies conducted by agricultural economists to measure the farm-level impact of transgenic crop varieties, the size and distribution of the economic benefits from adopting them, consumer attitudes toward GE products, and implications for international trade. This paper focuses only on the applied economics literature about the impact of transgenic crop varieties in non-industrialized agricultural systems, with an emphasis on methods. A number of studies have surveyed the findings for both industrialized and non-industrialized agriculture, at various points in time, but surveys of methods are less frequent and have typically examined only one overall question or approach. Clearly, the methods used in research influence the findings that are presented and what they mean. Understanding the methods therefore enhances understanding of the findings. Four categories of impact analysis are considered: farmers, consumers, industry and trade. In part due to methodological limitations and the relatively brief time frame of most analyses, results are promising, but the balance sheet is mixed. Thus, findings of current case studies should not be generalized to other locations, crops, and traits. The aim of this review is to progress toward the defining a “best practices” methodology for national researchers who seek to produce relevant information about emerging crop biotechnologies for national policymakers. " Authors' AbstractGenetically engineered crops, Economic impacts, Technology adoption, Developing economies, Economics methods, Best practices, biotechnology,

Risk assessment and management of genetically modified organisms under Australia's Gene Technology Act:

"Compared to both Canada and the United States, Australia has been slow to approve commercial planting of transgenic crops. Two probable reasons exist for the slow approval rate of transgenic crops in Australia. The first reason is community perceptions about the risks associated with transgenic technologies. The second is the regulatory framework currently employed to approve commercial releases. This paper examines some of the potential regulatory issues that may be affecting the review process and approval of transgenic technologies. First we provide a brief introduction to the regulatory structure in Australia, second we consider the impact of regional, national and state jurisdictions, third we argue that the regulator needs to consider the use of benefits analysis in decision making, fourth we argue for the use of probabilistic risk assessments in certain circumstances, and fifth we look at potential problems inherent in majority voting in a committee and recommend alternatives." Authors' AbstractRisk assessment,

A latent class approach to investigating consumer demand for genetically modified staple food in a developing country: The case of GM bananas in Uganda

genetically modified bananas, Consumers, Choice experiment, latent class model, preference heterogeneity, Science and technology, Genetic resources, Genetically engineered crops, Genetically modified crops,

The Cost of Biotechnology Regulation in the Philippines

This paper identifies direct costs and opportunity costs of bio-safety regulation for four transgenic products in the Philippines: Bt eggplant, Bt rice, ringspot-virus resistant papaya, and virus resistant tomatoes. It finds that direct regulatory costs while significant, are generally smaller than the research costs for technology development. However, both research and regulatory costs are overshadowed by even a relatively brief delay in product release, which may occur due to unexpected regulatory delays.Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

THE DISTRIBUTION OF BENEFITS RESULTING FROM BIOTECHNOLOGY ADOPTION

The purposes of this study are two-fold: (1) to estimate the size of total benefits arising from the adoption of agricultural biotechnology, and (2) to measure the distribution of total benefits among key stakeholders along the production and marketing chain, including U.S. farmers, gene developers, germplasm suppliers, U.S. consumers, and the producers and consumers in the rest of the world. This study focuses on the benefits that resulted from the adoption of herbicide-tolerant soybeans as well as insect-resistant (Bt) and herbicide-tolerant cotton in 1997. In this analysis, various data sources are examined for measuring the farm-level effects of adopting biotechnology and the resulting benefit estimates are compared. The size and distribution of the benefits arising from the adoption of biotech crops vary significantly, depending on the farm-level effects obtained from the various data sources and the supply and demand elasticity assumptions for the domestic and world markets. Estimates of the benefits derived from farm-level impacts that isolate the effects biotechnology appear to be the most plauible. This study does not lend support to the popular belief that U.S. farmers received at least one-half, or as much as two-thirds, of the total benefits realized from the adoption of biotechnology. In contrast, the results of this study indicate that in 1997, U.S. farmers realized considerably less than half of the total benefits. The bulk of the benefits appear to have gone to the gene supplier, seed companies, U.S. consumers, and the rest of the world.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Biofuels and Rural Economic Development in Latin America and the Caribbean

Biofuel expansion is seen as a way to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, as an alternative energy source for transportation and other uses, as a way to reduce Green House Gases, and as way to revitalize the agricultural sector. Very little discussions have been focused on Latin America, except for Brazil. Potential negative impacts re-enforce the need of performing more in depth analysis of the potential impact of biofuels expansion in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Paper estimates biofuels production potential based on current production situation and develops a forward-looking analysis of the long-term impact of biofuels expansion in Latin America and its effects on prices, trade, food security, malnutrition and other indicators using the IMPACT-WATER model developed by IFPRI. The analysis conducted for this paper of potential crops in the region show that from a technical and productivity standpoint in which to base biofuels expansion continues to be sugarcane and palm oil trees. Most countries in Latin America will not have a production constraint in terms of meeting existing and projected mandatory blends requirements. However, if the goal is to obtain energy independence, this result only holds for a few countries, with obvious food security implications as countries dedicate higher shares of their agricultural land to biofuels expansion. Our analysis, and those made in other studies, show that biofuels expansion is not likely to have a binding land production constraint in Latin America, with a few exceptions. The forward-looking estimations from the IMPACT-WATER model show that Brazil will continue to be the major player in the ethanol market. Brazil will expand its ethanol exports to meet growing demand in other countries including some in Latin America. Other countries such as Argentina and Colombia will likely continue their biofuels expansion plans, although our estimate show that they will not likely meet their demand based on current production potential. The IMPACT-WATER simulations also show that biofuels impacts on food security and malnutrition will likely happen in those countries where the feedstock used for biofuels production is a critical component of a major share of the population, other things equal. An example of this potential is Mexico and most of the Central America region, where a high proportion of the diet is composed of maize. The extent to which biofuels efforts can contribute towards addressing or affecting all broader contextual issues depend on a series of strategic determinants of impact success, ranging from the characteristics of installed capacity and industrial organization and coordination to whether any nascent market for biofuels will be economically sustainable and financially viable without continuous government support or interventions.Community/Rural/Urban Development, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Insecticide use on vegetables in Ghana: Would GM seed benefit farmers?

"Tomato, cabbage, and garden egg (African eggplant, or Solanum aethiopicum) are important crops for small-scale farmers and migrants in the rural and peri-urban areas of Ghana. Genetic modification has the potential to alleviate poverty through combating yield losses from pests and diseases in these crops, while reducing health risks from application of hazardous chemicals. This ex ante study uses farm survey data to gauge the potential for adoption of genetically modified (GM) varieties, estimate the potential impact of adoption on farm profits, and highlight economic differences among the three crops. Farmers' expenditures on insecticides are below the economic optimum in all three crops, and the estimated function for damage abatement shows that insecticide amounts are significant determinants of cabbage yields only. Nonetheless, yield losses from pests and disease affect insecticide use. A stochastic budget analysis also indicates a higher rate of return to vegetable production with the use of resistant seeds relative to the status quo, even considering the technology transfer fee for GM seed. Non–insecticide users could accrue higher marginal benefits than current insecticide users. Comparing among vegetable crops with distinct economic characteristics provides a wider perspective on the potential impact of GM technology. Until now, GM eggplant is the only vegetable crop that has been analyzed in the peer-reviewed, applied economics literature. This is the first analysis that includes African eggplant." from authors' abstractBiotechnology Developing countries, Genetically modified crops, pesticides, Pests Management, eggplant, damage abatement, stochastic budget analysis,

Vegetable Production and Pesticide Use in Ghana: Would GM Varieties Have an Impact at the Farm Level?

The objective of this study is to evaluate pesticide use as an important factor affecting potential adoption and farm level impact of genetically modified (GM) vegetable varieties in Ghana. Tomato is the most consumed vegetable and a food security crop. Cabbage is a vegetable of growing importance but limited cultivation and is produced in urban areas. Garden egg is a native African crop of wide consumption and importance for rural economies. Farm level information was collected in randomly selected sites in southern and central regions of Ghana. Partial budget analysis shows that investments in pesticides are rather low, especially for tomato and garden egg. Analysis of production using an abatement framework shows that insecticide amounts are significant in determining cabbage output levels only. Rate of returns of GM seeds however can still be high. GM varieties would need to show not only a high abatement rate and a high yield potential but mainly an affordable price, to reduce total costs and induce adoption.Farm, Genetically Modified, Ghana, Tomato, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Health Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade, Marketing, Productivity Analysis, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,