The Russia-Ukraine war, soaring food prices, and the Turkish economy: insights from computable general equilibrium

The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has led to considerable human suffering and raised concerns regarding the potential implications for the global economy. Türkiye, as a neighboring country and a major player in the region, maintains close ties with Ukraine and Russia and heavily relies on agricultural imports from both countries making it susceptible to market shocks caused by the war. In this research paper, we examine the economic impact of war-induced soaring food prices on the Turkish economy using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, which is a widely used tool for simulating the effects of shocks and policy changes on a country’s economy. We considered two utility functions with varying elasticity parameters to explore both micro-level and macro-level impacts of the price shock, encompassing household demand, industrial production, price and trade dynamics, income, investment, and welfare implications. The findings reveal significant effects on agricultural imports of crops (wheat, maize, barley, rice, and cereal grains), fruit and vegetables, and oil products, leading to an increase in both import and domestic prices, resulting in food inflation in the country. Additionally, the findings show that while the trade balance for the agricultural sector improved, the services, manufacturing, and forestry sectors have experienced an increased trade deficit. Furthermore, the war has caused a decline in foreign direct investment flowing into the country. Finally, the war-led price shock resulted in an estimated income loss of 0.2 or 0.8 percent of real GDP depending on the utility function, and a significant welfare loss. Based on these findings, several policy recommendations were discussed. The findings of the study highlight the importance of considering the interplay between food prices and micro and macroeconomic indicators

Overview of Disaster Preparedness and Response Strategies Regarding COVID-19 Crisis Control for Public Safety and Health Protection

The ongoing Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has incurred tremendous human, social, and economic costs, globally. Major economies across all continents are struggling to contain the COVID-19 pandemic and to flatten the infected curve.  This study focuses on critically reviewing the strategies opted globally to control COVID-19. The main objective of this paper is to overview the pandemic conditions, responses of the public, and actions of the governments with  the  aim to  highlight  the  importance  of  public health  preparedness  and  risk  management  strategies. The current study    uses    an    organized    method    of    locating,    assembling, summarizing, and evaluating the literature on COVID-19 control strategies adopted in different countries. It overviews the conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic in the countries hardest hit by it. The study uses the systemic literature review method to overview, summarize, and organize the literature regarding COVID-19 spread control strategies. A comprehensive Disaster Management and Response System (DMRS) strategy can be productive in limiting the pandemic spread and may also help to flatten the curve. The current study,  based  on  the  experiences of different  countries,  frames  a DMRS  strategy  to  contain  COVID-19  which  includes immediate government intervention, early recognition of the crisis, removal of cognitive  and confirmation biases,  political  and  religious biases, consensus development,  establishment  of a central  command  and control   center,   public   engagement,   integration   of   institutional functioning  using  ICT,  maintaining the medical  supply  chain, limiting  public  mobility  and  mass  gathering,  practicing  social distancing,    quarantining    and    isolation,    clear    and    effective communication for information dissemination, massive testing, and the use of ICT for information sharing, alerting, contact tracing and surveillance

Estimating Protection in Services Sector: A PPML Analysis

The paper provides the tariff equivalent (AVEs) of the trade regulations in services from the gravity equation estimated at the sectoral level and access protection by comparing the actual trade values against a benchmark (free trader). The AVEs are calculated using the bilateral trade flows in 19 services sectors for 121 countries from the latest version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database for 2014. We conclude that protection is heterogeneous across the sectors and is indirectly linked with the level of development. The countries with the least protected services are developed countries. On average, the most restrictive sector is the Gas sector with average AVE of 440 percent while the most open sector is Air transport with average AVE of 38 percent. Taking the average of AVEs in all sectors, Luxemburg, Singapore, Belgium, and Ireland are the most open economies while Bangladesh, Zimbabwe, Pakistan, and Tajikistan are more restrictive. As part of services is implicit in merchandise trade, Services value-added accounts for more than 60 percent of global GDP in 2020; liberalization can have spillover effects and welfare gains. Protection is primarily high in developing (emerging) countries; liberalization of the service sector is expected to increase their competitiveness and global trade share. Further, it can decrease the widening inequality amid the pandemic

Estimating Protection in Services Sector: A PPML Analysis

The paper provides the tariff equivalent (AVEs) of the trade regulations in services from the gravity equation estimated at the sectoral level and access protection by comparing the actual trade values against a benchmark (free trader). The AVEs are calculated using the bilateral trade flows in 19 services sectors for 121 countries from the latest version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database for 2014. We conclude that protection is heterogeneous across the sectors and is indirectly linked with the level of development. The countries with the least protected services are developed countries. On average, the most restrictive sector is the Gas sector with average AVE of 440 percent while the most open sector is Air transport with average AVE of 38 percent. Taking the average of AVEs in all sectors, Luxemburg, Singapore, Belgium, and Ireland are the most open economies while Bangladesh, Zimbabwe, Pakistan, and Tajikistan are more restrictive. As part of services is implicit in merchandise trade, Services value-added accounts for more than 60 percent of global GDP in 2020; liberalization can have spillover effects and welfare gains. Protection is primarily high in developing (emerging) countries; liberalization of the service sector is expected to increase their competitiveness and global trade share. Further, it can decrease the widening inequality amid the pandemic

Antibacterial effects of quercetagetin are significantly enhanced upon conjugation with chitosan engineered copper oxide nanoparticles

The development of antibiotic alternatives that entail distinctive chemistry and modes of action is necessary due to the threat posed by drug resistance. Nanotechnology has gained increasing attention in recent years, as a vehicle to enhance the efficacy of existing antimicrobials. In this study, Chitosan copper oxide nanoparticles (CHI-CuO) were synthesized and were further loaded with Quercetagetin (QTG) to achieve the desired (CHI-CuO-QTG). Size distribution, zeta potential and morphological analysis were accomplished. Next, the developed CHI-CuO-QTG was assessed for synergistic antibacterial properties, as well as cytotoxic attributes. Bactericidal assays revealed that CHI-CuO conjugation showed remarkable effects and enhanced QTG effects against a range of Gram + ve and Gram - ve bacteria. The MIC50 of QTG against S. pyogenes was 107 µg/mL while CHI-CuO-QTG reduced it to 9 µg/mL. Similar results were observed when tested against S. pneumoniae. Likewise, the MIC50 of QTG against S. enterica was 38 µg/mL while CHI-CuO-QTG reduced it to 7 µg/mL. For E. coli K1, the MIC50 of QTG was 42 µg/mL while with CHI-CuO-QTG it was 23 µg/mL. Finally, the MIC50 of QTG against S. marcescens was 98 µg/mL while CHI-CuO-QTG reduced it to 10 µg/mL. Notably, the CHI-CuO-QTG nano-formulation showed limited damage when tested against human cells using lactate dehydrogenase release assays. Importantly, bacterial-mediated human cell damage was reduced by prior treatment of bacteria using drug nano-formulations. These findings are remarkable and clearly demonstrate that drug-nanoparticle formulations using nanotechnology is an important avenue in developing potential therapeutic interventions against microbial infections.</p