College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency

The results in this paper show that various college football ranking systems have useful independent information for predicting the outcomes of games. Optimal weights for the systems are estimated, and the use of these weights produces a predictive system that is more accurate than any of the individual systems. The results also provide a fairly precise estimate of the size of the home field advantage. These results may be of interest to the Bowl Championship Series in choosing which teams to play in the national championship game. The results also show, however, that none of the systems, including the optimal combination, contains any useful information that is not in the final Las Vegas point spread. It is argued in the paper that this is a fairly strong test of the efficiency of the college football betting market.Football rankings, Predictive information

Fluid model for a network operating under a fair bandwidth-sharing policy

We consider a model of Internet congestion control that represents the randomly varying number of flows present in a network where bandwidth is shared fairly between document transfers. We study critical fluid models obtained as formal limits under law of large numbers scalings when the average load on at least one resource is equal to its capacity. We establish convergence to equilibria for fluid models and identify the invariant manifold. The form of the invariant manifold gives insight into the phenomenon of entrainment whereby congestion at some resources may prevent other resources from working at their full capacity

The origin and prevention of pandemics.

Despite the fact that most emerging diseases stem from the transmission of pathogenic agents from animals to humans, the factors that mediate this process are still ill defined. What is known, however, is that the interface between humans and animals is of paramount importance in the process. This review will discuss the importance of the human-animal interface to the disease emergence process. We also provide an overview of factors that are believed to contribute to the origin and global spread of emerging infectious diseases and offer suggestions that may serve as future prevention strategies, such as social mobilization, public health education, behavioral change, and communication strategies. Because there exists no comprehensive global surveillance system to monitor zoonotic disease emergence, the intervention measures discussed herein may prove effective temporary alternatives