Partisan impacts on the economy: evidence from prediction markets and close elections

Analyses of the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in expectations about the likely winner during election day. Analyzing high frequency financial fluctuations following the release of flawed exit poll data on election day 2004, and then during the vote count we find that markets anticipated higher equity prices, interest rates and oil prices, and a stronger dollar under a George W. Bush presidency than under John Kerry. A similar Republican–Democrat differential was also observed for the 2000 Bush–Gore contest. Prediction market based analyses of all presidential elections since 1880 also reveal a similar pattern of partisan impacts, suggesting that electing a Republican president raises equity valuations by 2–3 percent, and that since Ronald Reagan, Republican presidents have tended to raise bond yields

Gene expression variability in human and chimpanzee populations share common determinants

Inter-individual variation in gene expression has been shown to be heritable and is often associated with differences in disease susceptibility between individuals. Many studies focused on mapping associations between genetic and gene regulatory variation, yet much less attention has been paid to the evolutionary processes that shape the observed differences in gene regulation between individuals in humans or any other primate. To begin addressing this gap, we performed a comparative analysis of gene expression variability and expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) in humans and chimpanzees, using gene expression data from primary heart samples. We found that expression variability in both species is often determined by non-genetic sources, such as cell-type heterogeneity. However, we also provide evidence that inter-individual variation in gene regulation can be genetically controlled, and that the degree of such variability is generally conserved in humans and chimpanzees. In particular, we found a significant overlap of orthologous genes associated with eQTLs in both species. We conclude that gene expression variability in humans and chimpanzees often evolves under similar evolutionary pressures

Home-based tuberculosis contact investigation in Uganda: a household randomised trial.

IntroductionThe World Health Organization (WHO) recommends household tuberculosis (TB) contact investigation in low-income countries, but most contacts do not complete a full clinical and laboratory evaluation.MethodsWe performed a randomised trial of home-based, SMS-facilitated, household TB contact investigation in Kampala, Uganda. Community health workers (CHWs) visited homes of index patients with pulmonary TB to screen household contacts for TB. Entire households were randomly allocated to clinic (standard-of-care) or home (intervention) evaluation. In the intervention arm, CHWs offered HIV testing to adults; collected sputum from symptomatic contacts and persons living with HIV (PLWHs) if ≥5 years; and transported sputum for microbiologic testing. CHWs referred PLWHs, children <5 years, and anyone unable to complete sputum testing to clinic. Sputum testing results and/or follow-up instructions were returned by automated SMS texts. The primary outcome was completion of a full TB evaluation within 14 days; secondary outcomes were TB and HIV diagnoses and treatments among screened contacts.ResultsThere were 471 contacts of 190 index patients allocated to the intervention and 448 contacts of 182 index patients allocated to the standard-of-care. CHWs identified 190/471 (40%) intervention and 213/448 (48%) standard-of-care contacts requiring TB evaluation. In the intervention arm, CHWs obtained sputum from 35/91 (39%) of sputum-eligible contacts and SMSs were sent to 95/190 (50%). Completion of TB evaluation in the intervention and standard-of-care arms at 14 days (14% versus 15%; difference -1%, 95% CI -9% to 7%, p=0.81) and yields of confirmed TB (1.5% versus 1.1%, p=0.62) and new HIV (2.0% versus 1.8%, p=0.90) diagnoses were similar.ConclusionsHome-based, SMS-facilitated evaluation did not improve completion or yield of household TB contact investigation, likely due to challenges delivering the intervention components

Practice characteristics of Emergency Department extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (eCPR) programs in the United States: The current state of the art of Emergency Department extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ED ECMO).

PURPOSE: To characterize the current scope and practices of centers performing extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (eCPR) on the undifferentiated patient with cardiac arrest in the emergency department. METHODS: We contacted all US centers in January 2016 that had submitted adult eCPR cases to the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization (ELSO) registry and surveyed them, querying for programs that had performed eCPR in the Emergency Department (ED ECMO). Our objective was to characterize the following domains of ED ECMO practice: program characteristics, patient selection, devices and techniques, and personnel. RESULTS: Among 99 centers queried, 70 responded. Among these, 36 centers performed ED ECMO. Nearly 93% of programs are based at academic/teaching hospitals. 65% of programs are less than 5 years old, and 60% of programs perform ≤3 cases per year. Most programs (90%) had inpatient eCPR or salvage ECMO programs prior to starting ED ECMO programs. The majority of programs do not have formal inclusion and exclusion criteria. Most programs preferentially obtain vascular access via the percutaneous route (70%) and many (40%) use mechanical CPR during cannulation. The most commonly used console is the Maquet Rotaflow(®). Cannulation is most often performed by cardiothoracic (CT) surgery, and nearly all programs (\u3e85%) involve CT surgeons, perfusionists, and pharmacists. CONCLUSIONS: Over a third of centers that submitted adult eCPR cases to ELSO have performed ED ECMO. These programs are largely based at academic hospitals, new, and have low volumes. They do not have many formal inclusion or exclusion criteria, and devices and techniques are variable

Differentially Expressed Genes in Endometrium and Corpus Luteum of Holstein Cows Selected for High and Low Fertility Are Enriched for Sequence Variants Associated with Fertility

peer-reviewedDespite the importance of fertility in humans and livestock, there has been little success dissecting the genetic basis of fertility. Our hypothesis was that genes differentially expressed in the endometrium and corpus luteum on Day 13 of the estrous cycle between cows with either good or poor genetic merit for fertility would be enriched for genetic variants associated with fertility. We combined a unique genetic model of fertility (cattle that have been selected for high and low fertility and show substantial difference in fertility) with gene expression data from these cattle and genome-wide association study (GWAS) results in ∼20 000 cattle to identify quantitative trait loci (QTL) regions and sequence variants associated with genetic variation in fertility. Two hundred and forty-five QTL regions and 17 sequence variants associated primarily with prostaglandin F2alpha, steroidogenesis, mRNA processing, energy status, and immune-related processes were identified. Ninety-three of the QTL regions were validated by two independent GWAS, with signals for fertility detected primarily on chromosomes 18, 5, 7, 8, and 29. Plausible causative mutations were identified, including one missense variant significantly associated with fertility and predicted to affect the protein function of EIF4EBP3. The results of this study enhance our understanding of 1) the contribution of the endometrium and corpus luteum transcriptome to phenotypic fertility differences and 2) the genetic architecture of fertility in dairy cattle. Including these variants in predictions of genomic breeding values may improve the rate of genetic gain for this critical trait

Early Developmental Trajectories of Functional Connectivity along the Visual Pathways in Rhesus Monkeys

Early social interactions shape the development of social behavior, although the critical periods or the underlying neurodevelopmental processes are not completely understood. Here, we studied the developmental changes in neural pathways underlying visual social engagement in the translational rhesus monkey model. Changes in functional connectivity (FC) along the ventral object and motion pathways and the dorsal attention/visuo-spatial pathways were studied longitudinally using resting-state functional MRI in infant rhesus monkeys, from birth through early weaning (3 months), given the socioemotional changes experienced during this period. Our results revealed that (1) maturation along the visual pathways proceeds in a caudo-rostral progression with primary visual areas (V1-V3) showing strong FC as early as 2 weeks of age, whereas higher-order visual and attentional areas (e.g., MT-AST, LIP-FEF) show weak FC; (2) functional changes were pathway-specific (e.g., robust FC increases detected in the most anterior aspect of the object pathway (TE-AMY), but FC remained weak in the other pathways (e.g., AST-AMY)); (3) FC matures similarly in both right and left hemispheres. Our findings suggest that visual pathways in infant macaques undergo selective remodeling during the first 3 months of life, likely regulated by early social interactions and supporting the transition to independence from the mother

Political devolution and employment relations in Great Britain: the case of the Living Wage

This article examines the role of the devolved governments of Scotland and Wales in promoting the voluntary Living Wage. It shows that active promotion of the Living Wage standard has emerged in both countries from a broader commitment to an economic policy of ‘inclusive growth’. Employment law is not a devolved matter, and the article identifies a broad range of economic incentives and soft forms of regulation that have been used by the devolved governments to promote the Living Wage in the absence of hard power to legislate. Non‐legislative forms of state intervention are often regarded sceptically, but the article shows that the attempts of devolved governments to spread the Living Wage have been impactful, particularly in Scotland

The Quantity Theory of Money is Valid. The New Keynesians are Wrong!

We test the quantity theory of money (QTM) using a novel approach and a large new sample. We do not follow the usual approach of first differentiating the logarithm of the Cambridge equation to obtain an equation relating the growth rate of real GDP, the growth rate of money and inflation. These variables must then again be ‘integrated’ by averaging in order to obtain stable relationships. Instead we suggest a much simpler procedure for testing directly the stability of the coefficient of the Cambridge equation. For 125 countries and post-war data we find the coefficient to be surprisingly stable. We do not select for high inflation episodes as was done in most empirical studies; inflation rates do not even appear in our data set. Much work supporting the QTM has been done by economic historians and at the University of Chicago by Milton Friedman and his associates. The QTM was a foundation stone of the monetarist revolution. Subsequently belief in it waned. The currently dominant New Keynesian School, implicitly or explicitly denies the validity of the QTM. We survey this history and argue that the QTM is valid and New Keynesians are wrong