Jacknife statistics of model performance and relative importance of each variable.

<p>For each species, the table shows the area under the curve (AUC) and regularized training gain (Gain). For each variable first value correspond to the gain of a model fitted using all variables except the focal one. The more important variable according to this criterion is marked with *. The second value corresponds to the gain of a model fitted using just the focal variable. The more important variable according to this criterion is marked with ^†, (see methods for details). Abbreviations as in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0102592#pone-0102592-t001" target="_blank">table 1</a>.</p

Ranges of the environmental variables observed into the 95% geographic kernel defined for each species.

<p>Ann T° = mean annual temperature, T°Col = mean temperature of the coldest season, T° War = mean temperature of the warmest season, ADD = annual accumulated degree-days, % RH = annual mean relative humidity and PP = total annual precipitation. Pinus plantations refers to the area of Chile covered with <i>Pinus radiata</i> plantations (see methods for details).</p

Agricultural districts of Chile that contains at least one commercial plantation of <i>P. radiata</i> (dark areas, www.odepa.cl).

<p>Agricultural districts of Chile that contains at least one commercial plantation of <i>P. radiata</i> (dark areas, <a href="http://www.odepa.cl" target="_blank">www.odepa.cl</a>).</p

Projections of the Maxent model fitted for each North American species into Chile.

<p>Colors represent the probability of each pixel being a suitable habitat for the corresponding species.</p

Evaluating Habitat Suitability for the Establishment of <i>Monochamus spp.</i> through Climate-Based Niche Modeling

<div><p>Pine sawyer beetle species of the genus <i>Monochamus</i> are vectors of the nematode pest <i>Bursaphelenchus xylophilus.</i> The introduction of these species into new habitats is a constant threat for those regions where the forestry industry depends on conifers, and especially on species of <i>Pinus</i>. To obtain information about the potential risk of establishment of these insects in Chile, we performed climate-based niche modeling using data for five North American and four Eurasian <i>Monochamus</i> species using a Maxent approach. The most important variables that account for current distribution of these species are total annual precipitation and annual and seasonal average temperatures, with some differences between North American and Eurasian species. Projections of potential geographic distribution in Chile show that all species could occupy at least 37% of the area between 30° and 53°S, where industrial plantations of <i>P. radiata</i> are concentrated. Our results indicated that Chile seems more suitable for Eurasian than for North American species.</p></div

Percentage of potential area covered for each species.

<p>Threshold is the logistic threshold applied to obtain a binary map. This threshold correspond to the value that maximize test sensitivity plus specificity. % All is the percentage of Chilean territory that could be potentially covered by the species. % Pinus is the percentage of territory covered by <i>Pinus</i> plantations that could be potentially covered by each <i>Monochamus</i> species.</p