Beyond Refugia: New insights on Quaternary climate variation and the evolution of biotic diversity in tropical South America

Haffer’s (Science 165: 131–137, 1969) Pleistocene refuge theory has provided motivation for 50 years of investigation into the connections between climate, biome dynamics, and neotropical speciation, although aspects of the orig- inal theory are not supported by subsequent studies. Recent advances in paleocli- matology suggest the need for reevaluating the role of Quaternary climate on evolutionary history in tropical South America. In addition to the many repeated large-amplitude climate changes associated with Pleistocene glacial-interglacial stages (~40 kyr and 100 kyr cyclicity), we highlight two aspects of Quaternary climate change in tropical South America: (1) an east-west precipitation dipole, induced by solar radiation changes associated with Earth’s precessional variations (~20 kyr cyclicity); and (2) periods of anomalously high precipitation that persisted for centuries-to-millennia (return frequencies ~1500 years) congruent with cold “Heinrich events” and cold Dansgaard-Oeschger “stadials” of the North Atlantic region. The spatial footprint of precipitation increase due to this North Atlantic forcing extended across almost all of tropical South America south of the equator. Combined, these three climate modes present a picture of climate change with different spatial and temporal patterns than envisioned in the original Pleistocene refuge theory. Responding to these climate changes, biomes expanded and contracted and became respectively connected and disjunct. Biome change undoubtedly influenced biotic diversification, but the nature of diversification likely was more complex than envisioned by the original Pleistocene refuge theory. In the lowlands, intermittent forest expansion and contraction led to species dispersal and subsequent isolation, promoting lineage diversification. These pulses of climate-driven biotic interchange profoundly altered the composition of regional species pools and triggered new evolutionary radiations. In the special case of the tropical Andean forests adjacent to the Amazon lowlands, new phylogenetic data provide abundant evidence for rapid biotic diversification during the Pleistocene. During warm interglacials and intersta- dials, lowland taxa dispersed upslope. Isolation in these disjunct climate refugia led to extinction for some taxa and speciation for others.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/155561/1/Baker2020.pdfDescription of Baker2020.pdf : Main articl

Search for gravitational waves associated with gamma-ray bursts detected by Fermi and Swift during the LIGO–Virgo run O3b

We search for gravitational-wave signals associated with gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) detected by the Fermi and Swift satellites during the second half of the third observing run of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo (2019 November 1 15:00 UTC–2020 March 27 17:00 UTC). We conduct two independent searches: a generic gravitational-wave transients search to analyze 86 GRBs and an analysis to target binary mergers with at least one neutron star as short GRB progenitors for 17 events. We find no significant evidence for gravitational-wave signals associated with any of these GRBs. A weighted binomial test of the combined results finds no evidence for subthreshold gravitational-wave signals associated with this GRB ensemble either. We use several source types and signal morphologies during the searches, resulting in lower bounds on the estimated distance to each GRB. Finally, we constrain the population of low-luminosity short GRBs using results from the first to the third observing runs of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. The resulting population is in accordance with the local binary neutron star merger rate

Is convalescent plasma futile in COVID-19? A Bayesian re-analysis of the RECOVERY randomised controlled trial

Background: Randomized trials are generally performed from a frequentist perspective, which can conflate absence of evidence with evidence of absence. The RECOVERY trial evaluated convalescent plasma for patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and concluded that there was no evidence of an effect. Re-analysis from a Bayesian perspective is warranted. Methods: Outcome data were extracted from the RECOVERY trial by serostatus and time of presentation. A Bayesian re-analysis with a wide variety of priors (vague, optimistic, sceptical, and pessimistic) was performed, calculating the posterior probability for: any benefit, an absolute risk difference of 0.5% (small benefit, number needed to treat 200), and an absolute risk difference of one percentage point (modest benefit, number needed to treat 100). Results: Across all patients, when analysed with a vague prior, the likelihood of any benefit or a modest benefit with convalescent plasma was estimated to be 64% and 18%, respectively. The estimated chance of any benefit was 95% if presenting within 7 days of symptoms, or 17% if presenting after this. In patients without a detectable antibody response at presentation, the chance of any benefit was 85%. However, it was only 20% in patients with a detectable antibody response at presentation. Conclusions: Bayesian re-analysis suggests that convalescent plasma reduces mortality by at least one percentage point among the 39% of patients who present within 7 days of symptoms, and that there is a 67% chance of the same mortality reduction in the 38% who are seronegative at the time of presentation. This is in contrast to the results in people who already have antibodies when they present. This biologically plausible finding bears witness to the advantage of Bayesian analyses over misuse of hypothesis tests to inform decisions

North Atlantic forcing of Amazonian precipitation during the last ice age

The last glacial period was marked by multiple, abrupt reorganizations of ocean and atmosphere circulation. On thousand-year timescales, slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation was associated with cooling in the high northern latitudes, whereas strengthened circulation was linked to northern warming. In the tropics, these millennial-scale events were primarily reflected in altered patterns of precipitation. These hydrologic fluctuations induced ecological changes in the Atlantic seaboard and the high Andes, but less is known about the Amazon Basin. Here we reconstruct precipitation over Amazonian Ecuador over the past 94,000 years using a δ18O record from speleothems collected in Santiago Cave in western Amazonia. We interpret the variability of the δ18O record as changes in the source and amount of precipitation. With the exception of the period between 40,000 and 17,000 years ago, abrupt, high-frequency changes coincide with shifts in North Atlantic circulation, indicating a high-latitude influence on Amazonian precipitation over millennial timescales. On longer timescales, the record shows a relationship to precessional changes in the Earth’s orbit. In light of the lack of extreme aridity in our records, we conclude that ecosystems in western Amazonia have not experienced prolonged drying over the past 94,000 years

Double Bond Stereochemistry Influences the Susceptibility of Short‑Chain Isoprenoids and Polyprenols to Decomposition by Thermo‑Oxidation

Alcohols are common constituents of living cells. They are usually assigned a role in the adaptation of the cell to environmental stimuli, and this process might give rise to their oxidation by reactive oxygen species. Moreover, cellular isoprenoids may also undergo various chemical modifications resulting from the physicochemical treatment of the tissues, e.g., heating during food processing. Susceptibility of isoprenoid alcohols to heat treatment has not been studied in detail so far. In this study, isoprenoid alcohols differing in the number of isoprene units and geometry of the double bonds, β-citronellol, geraniol, nerol, farnesol, solanesol and Pren-9, were subjected to thermo-oxidation at 80 °C. Thermo-oxidation resulted in the decomposition of the tested short-chain isoprenoids as well as medium-chain polyprenols with simultaneous formation of oxidized derivatives, such as hydroperoxides, monoepoxides,diepoxides and aldehydes, and possible formation of oligomeric derivatives. Oxidation products were monitored by GC-FID, GC-MS, ESI-MS and spectrophotometric methods. Interestingly, nerol, a short-chain isoprenoid with a double bond in the cis (Z) configuration, was more oxidatively stable than its trans (E) isomer, geraniol. However, the opposite effect was observed for medium-chain polyprenols, since Pren-9 (di-trans-poly-cis-prenol) was more susceptible to thermo-oxidation than its all-trans isomer, solanesol. Taken together, these results experimentally confirm that both short- and long-chain polyisoprenoid alcohols are prone to thermo-oxidation