"A New Composite Index of Coincident Economic Indicators in Japan: How can we improve the forecast performance? "

The purpose of this paper is to construct a new composite index of coincident economic indicators in Japan and to demonstrate their usefulness in forecasting recent short-run economic fluctuations. The method of construction is based on the single-index dynamic factor model. Our two types of indexes are highly correlated with the traditional composite index compiled by the EPA over business-cycle horizons. However, standard leading indicators, which failed to forecast the traditional composite index, make a satisfactory performance in forecasting our indexes in the 1990s. In addition, lagged values of our indexes help to improve the leading indicatorsf performance in forecasting the traditional composite index in the 1990s. The result is noteworthy because a large number of research institutes made serious errors in forecasting recent recessions in Japan.

Evidence of Korea’s Finance-Growth Nexus: VARX Analysis with Financial Crisis and Openness

Korea’s finance-growth nexus is empirically investigated by taking the elements of financial crisis and openness―trade and financial―by employing the newly developed approach of vector error correction models with weakly exogenous I(1) variables (VARX). Considering financial development as a more complex phenomenon, we matter two aspects of financial deepening that are measured by its size (private credit to GDP) and efficiency (private credit to total domestic deposits). The main findings are: (1) financial efficiency contributes to accelerating economic growth; (2) the causality between economic growth and financial size is bilateral and negative; and (3) financial crisis is negative to both economic growth and financial development, whereas the growth-promoting effects of trade and financial openness are confirme

Finance-Growth Nexus and Globalization in Brazil, India, Philippines, Thailand, and Turkey: Evidence from VECM Cointegration Analysis

We investigate the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth―the finance-growth nexus―in Brazil, India, Philippines, Thailand, and Turkey by controlling for the globalization indicators of trade openness, foreign direct investment (FDI), and portfolio investment, together with the structural break dummy. Our sample countries of different regions have various experiences of developing and liberalizing their financial systems and external sectors as well as financial crises. Time series data span over the period 1974-2017, and two financial indicators of size and efficiency are used in estimation. Implementing the cointegration and Granger causality tests in the framework of the vector error correction model (VECM), we find that: 1) financial size and economic growth are in a positive, bilateral relationship in all the sample countries, although that of Turkey is more inclining toward economic growth causing financial size; 2) when financial development is proxied by financial efficiency, the results are different among the five countries; and 3) although theoretically expected to be contributive, the globalization indicators of trade openness, FDI, and portfolio investment exhibit either a positive or negative impact on financial development and economic growth. Based on empirical findings, we argue that policy-makers should design and develop financial sector polices and growth strategies fully considering the nature of their countries’ own institutional and structural characteristics

El nexo del crecimiento financiero de México con la apertura comercial, la IED y la inversión de cartera: Evidencias del análisis de cointegración del modelo de corrección de errores vectoriales (VECM)

This study investigates Mexico’s finance-growth nexus by controlling the “globalization” variables of trade openness, foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio investment together with the structural break dummy. Financial development is proxied by two indicators of size and efficiency. Implementing the cointegration and Granger causality tests in the framework of the vector error correction model (VECM), we found that: financial size is negative for economic growth with no feedback; financial efficiency and economic growth are in a negative bilateral relationship; trade openness and portfolio investment are positive for economic growth; and FDI is negative for economic growth and financial efficiency.Este estudio analiza el nexo del crecimiento financiero de México al controlar las variables de la "globalización" de la apertura comercial, la inversión extranjera directa (IED) y la inversión de cartera junto con la variable ficticia de ruptura estructural. El desarrollo financiero es medido a través de dos indicadores: tamaño y eficiencia. Al implementar las pruebas de cointegración y de causalidad de Granger en el marco del modelo de corrección de errores vectoriales (VECM), encontramos que: el tamaño financiero es negativo para el crecimiento económico sin retroalimentación, la eficiencia financiera y el crecimiento económico tienen una relación bilateral negativa, la apertura comercial y la inversión de cartera son positivas para el crecimiento económico, y la IED es negativa para el crecimiento económico y la eficiencia financiera

Estimation of Body Structure by Biomechanical Impedance

In the stiffness evaluation from the skin surface, the body structure under the skin, like a bone and muscle, influences on the measurement results. The authors developed the measurement system of biomechanical impedance with applying a vibration of acoustic frequency onto the body surface. We measured the viscoelasticity of the silicone-gel model, which involves metal blocks, from the gel surface by using this system. The internal structure of model is estimated from the relation between the viscoelasticity and the distance from the gel surface to the internal block. Applying this method, the shape of ribs of the right chest are estimated. The shapes and viscoelasticity of silicone-gel tumor model, which has two different tumors, are also estimated

Finance-Growth-Crisis Nexus In Emerging Economies: Evidence From India, Indonesia And Mexico

This paper documents the “finance-growth-crisis nexus” in India, Indonesia and Mexico while controlling for those factors of financial openness (capital account liberalization), trade openness (trade liberalization) and financial structure (stock market development relative to banking sector) as additional variables. Our sample countries are large emerging economies of different regions with high economic growth, various extents of financial deepening and major crisis episodes. The finance-growth-crisis nexus in each of the three countries is examined through the system-based analysis of cointegration in line with Johansen (1988). We also take the element of structural break into estimation by performing the Lagrange multiplier endogenous break test of Lee and Strazicich (2003; 2004). The key findings are: (1) the causal direction of the finance-growth nexus is a country-specific matter; (2) the increasing level of financial deepening significantly causes financial crisis; and (3) the effects of financial openness, trade openness and financial structure on output/finance/crisis are not clear-cut

Finance-growth-crisis nexus in Asian emerging economies: Evidence from VECM and ARDL assessment

This paper examines the causal relationship between financial development, economic growth and financial crisis in the five Asian emerging economies (India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand) during the period 1982 to 2007. All of these countries are known as emerging economies with well known financial crisis episodes (i.e., India's 1991 crisis and the Asian 1997 crisis). The summary indicators of financial development, financial crisis and financial repression are constructed through the principal component approach. The cointegration and Granger causality analysis are conducted by using two techniques of vector error correction model (VECM) and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). The main findings are: (1) the direction of the finance-growth nexus is country-specific; (2) deeper financial development can lead to financial crisis; and (3) financial crisis has a negative impact on economic growth (except Korea for the last two). On policy implication, we ascertain that the growth effect of financial deepening should be appraised with the view that financial deepening could gravitate toward financial crisis

Identification of Ornithine-lactam Converted from Arginine in Streptomyces incarnatus NRRL8089

Sinefungin is a nucleoside antibiotic, in which a molecule of L-ornithine is linked to the 5' end of adenosine through a C-C bond. The antibiotic was isolated from the culture broth of Streptomyces incarnatus. For the purpose of detecting intermediate of sinefungin biosynthesis, resting cell suspensions were incubated with supplemental L-arginine, and L-ornithine. 50mM Arginine was converted to a compound X that has low polarity. 50mM ornithine was not converted and remained in reaction solution. Compound X was purified using HPLC, and analyzed using (1)H-NMR and FAB-MS. These analyses showed that a compound X is "ornithine-lactam" (Mw＝114), which has a structure of circularized ornithine. These results indicated that S. incarnatus has an enzyme that converts arginine to ornithine-lactam. Such an enzyme has never been reported, and suggested that it may be relevant to sinefungin biosynthesis.シネフンギンは抗真菌，抗マラリア活性を有する核酸系抗生物質であり，放線菌 S. incarnatus により生合成される．シネフンギンはアデノシンとオルニチンがＣﾝＣ結合した構造であり，無細胞抽出液での取り込み実験からＬﾝアルギニンと ATP から生合成されると推測される．Ｌﾝアルギニン，Ｌﾝオルニチンを S. incarnatus の休止菌体反応系への投与を行いシネフンギン中間体の探索を行った．その結果50ﾋアルギニンは24時間以内に低極性化合物へと変換された．一方50ﾋオルニチンは変換されず反応液中に残存した．HPLC で化合物を精製し，1HﾝNMR，FABﾝMS での分析の結果オルニチン環状モノペプチド，「オルニチンラクタム」（分子量114）であることを明らかにした．この結果は S. incarnatus がアルギニンからオルニチンラクタムへの変換酵素を有する事を示唆する．このような酵素の報告例はこれまでになく，ニ次代謝酵素であることが示唆され，シネフンギン生合成との関連性に興味が持たれる

Measurement of Electron Density and Temperature in a Pulsed Argon Ion Laser

This paper is concerned with some results of experiment and analysis on plasma of pulsed argon ion laser. A long pulsed discharge was brought about with varied discharge voltages of 2～5kV at pressures from 10 to lOOm Torr. Laser oscillations of 6 argon ion lines were observed in the pressure range from 10 to 30m Torr. The change of electron density during the discharge was measured with a He-Ne laser interferometer and a double probe, giving the value of the order of 10¹4cm⁻³ for the above discharge conditions. The time variation of electron temperature was also determined with a double probe and by the measurement of plasma electrical resistivity. Temperature of 4.5～7×10⁴ °K was obtained. From the analysis of the measured plasma parameters it is concluded that the free fall model of Tonks-Langmuir is valid in the laser plasma except in the early period of the pulsed discharge. Further, observed laser oscillations and spontaneous emissions are analized and three-level model is supported for the pumping of excited levels of argon ion lines in the quasi-CW oscillation region, i.e. the later period, of the laser discharge