Predictors of musculoskeletal flares and Jaccoud׳s arthropathy in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: A 5-year prospective study

Objective To investigate the prognostic value of US in predicting musculoskeletal flares and Jaccoud׳s arthropathy (JA) in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Methods A total of 80 out of 94 patients (76 female; age 45.5 ± 13.2 years) with non-deforming non-erosive (NDNE) arthritis and 48/60 healthy controls (42 female; age 49.6 ± 11.6 years) completed the 5-year follow-up study. Each patient was prospectively assessed for the occurrence of musculoskeletal flares using BILAG2004 and hand deformities according to Jaccoud׳s articular index. Baseline clinical, serological, semi-quantitative (0–3 scale) ultrasound (US) findings, PD-synovitis and PD-tenosynovitis scores were used as covariates to identify predictors of study outcomes. Short Form 36 v2 (SF36v2) health survey questionnaire was administered. Results Overall, 12 MS flares in 10 (12.5%) patients were recorded and the incidence rate was 3.0 per 100 patient-year. Baseline PD-synovitis score independently predicted MS flare (p < 0.001; RR = 2.0; 95% CI: 1.4–3.0) within 2 years since US examination. In all, 5 (6.2%) patients developed JA whose incidence rate was 1.25 per 100 patient-year. Independent risk factors for development of JA were higher longitudinal BILAG score in the musculoskeletal domain (p = 0.005; RR = 2.4; 95% CI: 1.3–4.6) and longer disease duration (p = 0.013; RR 1.2; 95% CI: 1.1–1.3). JA and active musculoskeletal inflammation (BILAG ≥ C), but not US erosions, were associated with lower results in SF36v2 physical and mental summary components. Conclusions Performing musculoskeletal US can be useful in order to predict MS flares. Jaccoud׳s deformities may arise in patients with long-standing SLE and prolonged, even subclinical, joint and tendon inflammation