7 research outputs found

    Spatio-temporal variations in urban crime in Ogbomos, Nigeria

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    Against the background of the increasing frequency, scope and sophistication of crime as well as the insurmountable problems associated with its seemingly uncontrollable tendencies in cities of the world generally and Nigerian urban centers in particular, this paper examines the rates, forms and spatio-temporal variations in urban crime in Ogbomoso, Nigeria. The paper utilizes a nine-year (1995-2003) police crime record obtained from the Divisional Police Headquarters of the two local governments whose areas of jurisdiction cover the metropolis. A total of 4767 reviewed crime cases were reclassified into ten categories and examined by location within the existing urban spatial structure of high, medium and low density residential densities. All the ten categories of crime identified were encountered. However, the most prevalent were crime of acquisition (48.8%) and aggression (28.3%), with the high density area having the greatest concentration of cases. The temporal analysis shows that crime trend decreased in Ogbomoso within the period of study, a feat attributed to more gainful employment for the urban youths, particularly the increase in the use of motor cycle popularly known as “Okada” as a mode of intra-city transportation. The causal factors of crime are examined within structuralism and individualism paradigms. On planning implications, it is suggested that principles guiding landuse zoning (or allocation), infrastructural planning, and building design be reviewed so as to prevent the creation of danger zone within the urban landscape. Global Journal of Environmental Sciences Vol. 6 (1) 2007: pp. 21-2

    Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study

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    Background Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications. Methods We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≄18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC). Findings In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≄0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683–0·717]). Interpretation In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required. Funding British Journal of Surgery Society
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