Neutrino mass hierarchy and precision physics with medium-baseline reactors: impact of energy-scale and flux-shape uncertainties

Nuclear reactors provide intense sources of electron antineutrinos, characterized by few-MeV energy E and unoscillated spectral shape Phi(E). High-statistics observations of reactor neutrino oscillations over medium-baseline distances L ~ O(50) km would provide unprecedented opportunities to probe both the long-wavelength mass-mixing parameters (delta m^2 and theta_12) and the short-wavelength ones (Delta m^2 and theta_13), together with the subtle interference effects associated to the neutrino mass hierarchy (either normal or inverted). In a given experimental setting - here taken as in the JUNO project for definiteness - the achievable hierarchy sensitivity and parameter accuracy depend not only on the accumulated statistics but also on systematic uncertainties, which include (but are not limited to) the mass-mixing priors and the normalizations of signals and backgrounds. We examine, in addition, the effect of introducing smooth deformations of the detector energy scale, E -> E'(E), and of the reactor flux shape, Phi(E) -> Phi'(E), within reasonable error bands inspired by state-of-the-art estimates. It turns out that energy-scale and flux-shape systematics can noticeably affect the performance of a JUNO-like experiment, both on the hierarchy discrimination and on precision oscillation physics. It is shown that a significant reduction of the assumed energy-scale and flux-shape uncertainties (by, say, a factor of two) would be highly beneficial to the physics program of medium-baseline reactor projects. Our results shed also some light on the role of the inverse-beta decay threshold, of geoneutrino backgrounds, and of matter effects in the analysis of future reactor oscillation data

Neutrino mass hierarchy and electron neutrino oscillation parameters with one hundred thousand reactor events

Proposed medium-baseline reactor neutrino experiments offer unprecedented opportunities to probe, at the same time, the mass-mixing parameters which govern $\nu_e$ oscillations both at short wavelength (delta m^2 and theta_{12}) and at long wavelength (Delta m^2 and theta_{13}), as well as their tiny interference effects related to the mass hierarchy (i.e., the relative sign of Delta m^2 and delta m^2). In order to take full advantage of these opportunities, precision calculations and refined statistical analyses of event spectra are required. In such a context, we revisit several input ingredients, including: nucleon recoil in inverse beta decay and its impact on energy reconstruction and resolution, hierarchy and matter effects in the oscillation probability, spread of reactor distances, irreducible backgrounds from geoneutrinos and from far reactors, and degeneracies between energy scale and spectrum shape uncertainties. We also introduce a continuous parameter alpha, which interpolates smoothly between normal hierarchy (alpha=+1) and inverted hierarchy (alpha=-1). The determination of the hierarchy is then transformed from a test of hypothesis to a parameter estimation, with a sensitivity given by the distance of the true case (either alpha=+1 or alpha=-1) from the undecidable case (alpha=0). Numerical experiments are performed for the specific set up envisaged for the JUNO project, assuming a realistic sample of O(10^5) reactor events. We find a typical sensitivity of ~2 sigma to the hierarchy in JUNO, which, however, can be challenged by energy scale and spectrum shape systematics, whose possible conspiracy effects are investigated. The prospective accuracy reachable for the other mass-mixing parameters is also discussed

PINGU and the neutrino mass hierarchy: Statistical and systematic aspects

The proposed PINGU project (Precision IceCube Next Generation Upgrade) is expected to collect O(10^5) atmospheric muon and electron neutrino in a few years of exposure, and to probe the neutrino mass hierarchy through its imprint on the event spectra in energy and direction. In the presence of nonnegligible and partly unknown shape systematics, the analysis of high-statistics spectral variations will face subtle challenges that are largely unprecedented in neutrino physics. We discuss these issues both on general grounds and in the currently envisaged PINGU configuration, where we find that possible shape uncertainties at the (few) percent level can noticeably affect the sensitivity to the hierarchy. We also discuss the interplay between the mixing angle theta_23 and the PINGU sensitivity to the hierarchy. Our results suggest that more refined estimates of spectral uncertainties are needed in next-generation, large-volume atmospheric neutrino experiments