Transportability of Overall Survival Estimates From US to Canadian Patients With Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer With Implications for Regulatory and Health Technology Assessment.

IMPORTANCE: The external validity of survival outcomes derived from clinical practice data from US patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is not known and is of potential importance because it may be used to support regulatory decision-making and health technology assessment outside of the US. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether overall survival (OS) estimates for a selected group of patients with advanced NSCLC from a large US clinical practice database are transportable to Canadian patients receiving the same systemic therapies. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This retrospective multicenter cohort study used transportability analysis to assess whether adjustment for pretreatment characteristics of eligible patient cohorts could reliably approximate OS estimated from US-based samples to Canadian populations. A total of 17 432 eligible adult patients who were diagnosed de novo with advanced NSCLC on or after January 1, 2011, were included in the analysis and followed up until September 30, 2020. Because data on race and ethnicity were available in the US database but not the Canadian database and because racial and ethnic distribution was likely to be similar between US and Canadian patients, these characteristics were not analyzed. EXPOSURES: Initiation of platinum-doublet chemotherapy or pembrolizumab monotherapy as first-line systemic treatment for advanced NSCLC. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: OS measured from the time of initiation of the respective treatment regimen. RESULTS: Among 17 432 eligible patients, 15 669 patients from the US and 1763 patients from Canada were included in the analysis. Of those, 11 863 patients (sample size-weighted estimates of mean [SD] age, 68.0 [9.3] years; 6606 [55.7%] male; 10 100 from the US and 1763 from Canada) were included in the subset of patients with complete data for baseline covariates. A total of 13 532 US patients received first-line chemotherapy, and 2137 received first-line pembrolizumab monotherapy. Of those, 8447 patients (62.4%) in the first-line chemotherapy group and 1653 patients (77.3%) in the first-line pembrolizumab group had complete data on baseline covariates for outcome model estimation. A total of 1476 Canadian patients who received first-line chemotherapy and 287 patients who received first-line pembrolizumab monotherapy were identified from the target population. After standardization to baseline patient covariates in the Canadian cohorts, transported OS estimates revealed a less than 5% mean absolute difference from the observed OS in the target population (0.56% over 60 months of follow-up in the first-line chemotherapy group and 4.54% over 30 months of follow-up in the first-line pembrolizumab group). Negative control analysis using a mismatched outcome model revealed a 6.64% discrepancy and an incompatible survival curve shape. The results were robust to assumptions of random missingness for baseline covariates, to unadjusted differences in baseline metastases and comorbidities, and to differences in the standard of care between the US and Canada related to administration of second-line anti-programmed cell death 1 ligand 1 immunotherapy for patients who initiated first-line chemotherapy. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The results of this cohort study suggest that, under specific circumstances, OS estimates from US clinical practice data can be adjusted using baseline clinical characteristics to closely approximate OS in selected groups of Canadian patients with advanced NSCLC. These results may have implications for regulatory decision-making and health technology assessment in target populations outside of the US

Exploring the conformational dynamics of alanine dipeptide in solution subjected to an external electric field: A nonequilibrium molecular dynamics simulation

In this paper, we investigate the conformational dynamics of alanine dipeptide under an external electric field by nonequilibrium molecular dynamics simulation. We consider the case of a constant and of an oscillatory field. In this context we propose a procedure to implement the temperature control, which removes the irrelevant thermal effects of the field. For the constant field different time-scales are identified in the conformational, dipole moment, and orientational dynamics. Moreover, we prove that the solvent structure only marginally changes when the external field is switched on. In the case of oscillatory field, the conformational changes are shown to be as strong as in the previous case, and non-trivial nonequilibrium circular paths in the conformation space are revealed by calculating the integrated net probability fluxes.Comment: 23 pages, 12 figure

Pooled Analysis of Meningioma Risk Following Treatment for Childhood Cancer.

IMPORTANCE: Meningioma is the most common subsequent neoplasm following cranial irradiation among survivors of childhood cancer, but there are still uncertainties regarding the magnitude of the radiation dose-response association, potential modifiers of radiation risks, and the role of chemotherapy. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate meningioma risk in survivors of childhood cancer following radiotherapy and chemotherapy and identify possible modifying factors of radiation-associated risk. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This international case-control study pooled data from 4 nested case-control studies of survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed between 1942 and 2000, followed through 2016. Cases were defined as participants diagnosed with a subsequent meningioma. Controls were matched to cases based on sex, age at first cancer diagnosis, and duration of follow-up. Data were analyzed from July 2019 to June 2022. EXPOSURES: Radiation dose (Gy) to the meningioma site and cumulative chemotherapy doses, including intrathecal and systemic methotrexate doses. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The main outcome was subsequent meningioma, assessed using odds ratios (ORs) and excess odds ratios per gray (EOR/Gy). RESULTS: The analysis included 273 survivors of childhood cancer who developed meningioma (cases) and 738 survivors who did not (controls), with a total of 1011 individuals (median [IQR] age at first cancer diagnosis 5.0 [3.0-9.2] years; 599 [59.2%] female). Median (IQR) time since first cancer was 21.5 (15.0-27.0) years. Increasing radiation dose was associated with increased risk of meningioma (EOR/Gy, 1.44; 95% CI, 0.62-3.61), and there was no evidence of departure from linearity (P = .90). Compared with survivors who were not exposed to radiation therapy, those who received doses of 24 Gy or more had more than 30-fold higher odds of meningioma (OR, 33.66; 95% CI, 14.10-80.31). The radiation dose-response association was significantly lower among patients treated at age 10 years or older compared with those treated before age 10 years (EOR/Gy, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.18-1.91 vs 2.20; 95% CI, 0.87-6.31; P for heterogeneity = .03). Risk associated with radiation remained significantly elevated 30 years after exposure (EOR/Gy, 3.76; 95% CI, 0.77-29.15). We found an increased risk of meningioma among children who had received methotrexate (OR, 3.43; 95% CI, 1.56-7.57), but no evidence of a dose-response association or interaction with radiation dose. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: These findings suggest that the meninges are highly radiosensitive, especially for children treated before age 10 years. These results support the reduction in whole-brain irradiation over recent decades and the prioritization of approaches that limit radiation exposure in healthy tissue for children. The persistence of elevated risks of meningiomas for 30 years after cranial radiotherapy could help inform surveillance guidelines

Prophylactic Intra-Aortic Balloon Counterpulsation in High Risk Cardiac Surgery: The PINBALL Pilot Multicentre, Registry-Linked, Randomised, Controlled Feasibility Trial

Background: Prophylactic intra-aortic balloon counterpulsation (IABC) is commonly used in selected patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery, but definitive evidence is lacking. The aim of the multicentre PINBALL Pilot randomised controlled trial (RCT) was to assess the feasibility of performing a definitive trial to address this question. Methods: Patients listed for CABG surgery with impaired left ventricular function and at least one additional risk factor for postoperative low cardiac output syndrome were eligible for inclusion if the treating surgical team was uncertain as to the benefit of prophylactic IABC. The primary outcome of feasibility was based on exceeding a pre-specified recruitment rate, protocol compliance and follow-up. Results: The recruitment rate of 0.5 participants per site per month did not meet the feasibility threshold of two participants per site per month and the study was stopped early after enrolment of 24 out of the planned sample size of 40 participants. For 20/24 (83%) participants, preoperative IABC use occurred according to study assignment. Six (6)-month follow-up was available for all enrolled participants, [IABC 1 death (8%) vs. control 1 death (9%), p = 0.95]. Conclusion: The PINBALL Pilot recruitment rate was insufficient to demonstrate feasibility of a multicentre RCT of prophylactic IABC in high risk patients undergoing CABG surgery

Determining individual trajectories of joint space loss: improved statistical methods for monitoring knee osteoarthritis disease progression

Objectives: Knee osteoarthritis (KOA) progression is frequently monitored by calculating the change in knee joint space width (JSW) measurements. Such differences are small and sensitive to measurement error.We aimed to assess the utility of two alternative statistical modelling methods for monitoring KOA. Material and methods: We used JSW on radiographs from both the control arm of the Strontium Ranelate Efficacy in Knee Osteoarthritis trial (SEKOIA), a 3-year multicentre, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase three trial, and the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI), an open-access longitudinal dataset from the USA comprising participants followed over 8 years. Individual estimates of annualised change obtained from frequentist linear mixed effect (LME) and Bayesian hierarchical modelling, were compared with annualised crude change, and the association of these parameters with change in WOMAC pain was examined. Results: Mean annualised JSW changes were comparable for all estimates, a reduction of around 0.14 mm/y in SEKOIA and 0.08 mm/y in OAI. The standard deviation (SD) of change estimates was lower with LME and Bayesian modelling than crude change (SEKOIA SD ¼ 0.12, 0.12 and 0.21 respectively; OAI SD ¼ 0.08, 0.08 and 0.11 respectively). Estimates from LME and Bayesian modelling were statistically significant predictors of change in pain in SEKOIA (LME P-value ¼ 0.04, Bayes P-value ¼ 0.04), while crude change did not predict change in pain (P-value ¼ 0.10). Conclusions: Implementation of LME or Bayesian modelling in clinical trials and epidemiological studies, would reduce sample sizes by enabling all study participants to be included in analysis regardless of incomplete follow up, and precision of change estimates would improve. They provide increased power to detect associations with other measures

Risk of breast cancer and other cancers in heterozygotes for ataxia-telangiectasia

Mortality from cancer among 178 parents and 236 grandparents of 95 British patients with ataxia-telangiectasia was examined. For neither parents nor grandparents was mortality from all causes or from cancer appreciably elevated over that of the national population. Among mothers, three deaths from breast cancer gave rise to a standardized mortality ratio of 3.37 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.69–9.84). In contrast, there was no excess of breast cancer in grandmothers, the standardized mortality ratio being 0.89 (95% CI: 0.18–2.59), based on three deaths. This is the largest study of families of ataxia-telangiectasia patients conducted in Britain but, nonetheless, the study is small and CIs are wide. However, taken together with data from other countries, an increased risk of breast cancer among female heterozygotes is still apparent, though lower than previously thought. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

Prevalence of thyroid nodules in an occupationally radiation exposed group: a cross sectional study in an area with mild iodine deficiency

BACKGROUND: Thyroid nodules and thyroid cancer occur more frequently in people exposed to radiation for therapeutic purposes, and to nuclear fallout. Furthermore, it is known that a moderate degree of iodine deficiency may be responsible for an increased prevalence of thyroid nodules, while it is suspected that radiation exposure could induce changes in thyroid autoimmunity. The iodine intake of people resident in Bari, S. Italy, is mildly deficient, which could be presumed to cause a higher prevalence of thyroid pathology. This study was conducted to evaluate the prevalence of thyroid nodules in a population occupationally exposed to radiation, in an area of mild iodine deficiency. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was designed to evaluate the prevalence of thyroid nodules in radiation exposed workers, compared with a stratified sample of non exposed workers. After giving written consent to participate in the study, all the recruited subjects (304 exposed and 419 non exposed volunteers) were interviewed to fill in an anamnestic questionnaire, and underwent a physical examination, ultrasound thyroid scan, serum determinations of fT3, fT4 and TSH, fine needle aspiration biopsy. The sample was subdivided into one group exposed to a determined quantity of radiation (detected by counter), one group exposed to an undetectable quantity of radiation, and the non exposed control group. RESULTS: The prevalence of thyroid nodules <1 cm in diameter, defined as incidentalomas, in the exposed group with detected doses, was 11.28% in males and 9.68% in females, while in the exposed group with undetectable dose the prevalence was 10.39% in males and 16.67% in females. In the non exposed group the prevalence of incidentalomas was 9.34% in males and 13.20% in females. These prevalences were not statistically different when analysed by a multiple test comparison with the bootstrap method and stratification for sex. Instead, the prevalence of thyroid nodules > 1 cm in diameter resulted statistically different in exposed and non exposed health staff: 18.68% in non exposed males vs exposed: 3.76% (determined dose) and 9.09% (undetectable dose) in males, and 20.30% in non exposed females versus 3.23% (detected dose) and 9.52% (undetectable dose) in exposed females. There was a higher proportion of healthy staff in the exposed group than in the non exposed: (80.45% vs 68.68% in males; 80.65% vs 57.87% in females). CONCLUSION: In our study, occupational exposure to radiation combined with mild iodine deficiency did not increase the risk of developing thyroid nodules. The statistically significant higher prevalence of thyroid nodules in the non exposed group could be explained by the high percentage (22%) of people with a familial history of, and hence a greater predisposition to, thyroid disease. The endemic condition of mild iodine deficiency, demonstrated in other studies, played a major role in determining the thyroid pathology in our study groups

Opt-out as an acceptable method of obtaining consent in medical research: a short report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A prospective cohort study was set up to investigate a possible association between antibiotic prescribing and antibiotic resistance of <it>E. coli </it>urinary tract infection in the community. Participation of patients with urinary tract infection was obtained through an opt-out methodology. This short paper reports on the acceptability of the opt-out recruitment approach.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Participating practices (22) were requested to send a urine sample from all patients presenting with symptoms of urinary tract infection. Upon receipt of the sample in the laboratory, a letter explaining the study, an opt-out form and a freepost envelope were sent to all adult patients. A website with additional information and including an 'opt-out' button was set up for the study.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 1362 urine samples were submitted by the 22 participating practices representing 1178 adult patients of whom 193 actively responded to the letter: 142 opted out by letter, 15 through the website, 2 by phone and 12 sent the letter back without indication, making a total of 171 patients or 14.5% opt-out; the remaining 22 patients (1.9%) explicitly opted in. The total group consisted of 80% women and the mean age was 50.9 years (sd 20.8). No significant differences were found between patients who participated and those who opted out in terms of age, gender or whether the urine sample was positive or not.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Overall the opt-out method was well received and participation in the study reached 85.5%. The low number of complaints (2) indicates that this is a generally acceptable method of patient recruitment. The 14.5% opt-out shows that it effectively empowers patients to decline participation. The similarity between patients opting out and the rest of the patients is reassuring for extrapolation of the results of the study.</p

Why do women invest in pre-pregnancy health and care? A qualitative investigation with women attending maternity services

Background Despite the importance attributed to good pre-pregnancy care and its potential to improve pregnancy and child health outcomes, relatively little is known about why women invest in pre-pregnancy health and care. We sought to gain insight into why women invested in pre-pregnancy health and care. Methods We carried out 20 qualitative in-depth interviews with pregnant or recently pregnant women who were drawn from a survey of antenatal clinic attendees in London, UK. Interviewees were purposively sampled to include high and low investors in pre-pregnancy health and care, with variation in age, partnership status, ethnicity and pre-existing medical conditions. Data analysis was conducted using the Framework method. Results We identified three groups in relation to pre-pregnancy health and care: 1) The “prepared” group, who had high levels of pregnancy planning and mostly positive attitudes to micronutrient supplementation outside of pregnancy, carried out pre-pregnancy activities such as taking folic acid and making changes to diet and lifestyle. 2) The “poor knowledge” group, who also had high levels of pregnancy planning, did not carry out pre-pregnancy activities and described themselves as having poor knowledge. Elsewhere in their interviews they expressed a strong dislike of micronutrient supplementation. 3) The “absent pre-pregnancy period” group, had the lowest levels of pregnancy planning and also expressed anti-supplement views. Even discussing the pre-pregnancy period with this group was difficult as responses to questions quickly shifted to focus on pregnancy itself. Knowledge of folic acid was poor in all groups. Conclusion Different pre-pregnancy care approaches are likely to be needed for each of the groups. Among the “prepared” group, who were proactive and receptive to health messages, greater availability of information and better response from health professionals could improve the range of pre-pregnancy activities carried out. Among the “poor knowledge” group, better response from health professionals might yield greater uptake of pre-pregnancy information. A different, general health strategy might be more appropriate for the “absent pre-pregnancy period” group. The fact that general attitudes to micronutrient supplementation were closely related to whether or not women invested in pre-pregnancy health and care was an unanticipated finding and warrants further investigation.This report is independent research commissioned and funded by the Department of Health Policy Research Programme Pre-Pregnancy Health and Care in England: Exploring Implementation and Public Health Impact, 006/0068

Childhood socioeconomic position and objectively measured physical capability levels in adulthood: a systematic review and meta-analysis

&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Background:&lt;/b&gt; Grip strength, walking speed, chair rising and standing balance time are objective measures of physical capability that characterise current health and predict survival in older populations. Socioeconomic position (SEP) in childhood may influence the peak level of physical capability achieved in early adulthood, thereby affecting levels in later adulthood. We have undertaken a systematic review with meta-analyses to test the hypothesis that adverse childhood SEP is associated with lower levels of objectively measured physical capability in adulthood.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Methods and Findings:&lt;/b&gt; Relevant studies published by May 2010 were identified through literature searches using EMBASE and MEDLINE. Unpublished results were obtained from study investigators. Results were provided by all study investigators in a standard format and pooled using random-effects meta-analyses. 19 studies were included in the review. Total sample sizes in meta-analyses ranged from N = 17,215 for chair rise time to N = 1,061,855 for grip strength. Although heterogeneity was detected, there was consistent evidence in age adjusted models that lower childhood SEP was associated with modest reductions in physical capability levels in adulthood: comparing the lowest with the highest childhood SEP there was a reduction in grip strength of 0.13 standard deviations (95% CI: 0.06, 0.21), a reduction in mean walking speed of 0.07 m/s (0.05, 0.10), an increase in mean chair rise time of 6% (4%, 8%) and an odds ratio of an inability to balance for 5s of 1.26 (1.02, 1.55). Adjustment for the potential mediating factors, adult SEP and body size attenuated associations greatly. However, despite this attenuation, for walking speed and chair rise time, there was still evidence of moderate associations.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Conclusions:&lt;/b&gt; Policies targeting socioeconomic inequalities in childhood may have additional benefits in promoting the maintenance of independence in later life.&lt;/p&gt