Spatial Impacts of Changes in the Population Growth Matrix

There are in fact two approaches to trace through the impacts of particular changes in the components of the population growth: (a) Examination of model stable multiregional populations (simulation approach); (b) Mathematical analysis of the impacts (analytical approach). Some mathematical impact analysis has already been performed in the paper on spatial population dynamics. It follows essentially Keyfitz's chain of derivations, but centers on the multiregional generalization of some principal formulas. In order to pursue the impact analysis further, we need some additional findings of matrix algebra. Most of the relevant ideas are collected in a recent volume on sensitivity analysis and on methods for incorporating sensitivity considerations in engineering design procedures. This paragraph deals with the analysis of the impact of changes in the growth matrix on: (a) growth rate of the stable population; (b) coefficients of the characteristic equation; (c) stable population distribution

Age-Period-Cohort (APC) Analysis of Mortality with Applications to Soviet Data

The paper consists of two parts. The first part reviews the research on age-period-cohort analysis (APC) of mortality where APC models are extensively applied. A number of solutions to the identification problem are reviewed. It is claimed that the identification problem is not a problem of model specification, but a problem of measurement and specification. In the second part of the paper, APC models are applied to mortality data. With the recent opening of the Soviet society, many demographic data that have been inaccessible for researchers have now become available. This is especially true of mortality data. By applying APC analysis for age-specific mortality rates for Soviet republics (or former Soviet republics), the authors try to separate contemporary and historical factors and thus capture several events that took place in Soviet history. Comparative analysis of age, period and cohort effects for different regions of the USSR are presented

A Dynamic Linear Programming Approach to National Settlement System Planning

The problem of human settlement system (HSS) planning is formulated as a dynamic linear programming (DLP) problem. In DLP large time-dependent linear programming problems are solved using both optimal control and linear programming techniques. A multi-regional population growth model forms the state equation of the DLP problem. Budget-, resources- and quality of life constraints are considered. This introductory paper demonstrates the formalization of the HSS planning problem and indicates its solution, the realization of the solution and the interpretation of the dual relationship

Rural-Urban Population Projections for Kenya and Implications for Development: Some Preliminary Results

The objective of this paper is to present some preliminary results on the projections of Kenya's rural and urban population under present trends (base run) and varying assumptions (scenarios 1 to 6) of fertility, mortality and migration. The methodology of multiregional demography is applied to this two region system. The advantage of this approach is that rural and urban populations can be projected simultaneously, as part of an interconnected two-region system

The Spatial Reproductive Value and the Spatial Momentum of Zero Population Growth

This paper develops the concept of spatial reproductive value and illustrates how such a notion may be used to trace out quantitatively the geographical impacts of a sudden reduction in fertility to bare replacement level. Such a reduction does not immediately produce zero population growth in populations that previously experienced high birth rates. The built-in momentum for continued growth and its spatial dimension may be assessed with the aid of spatial reproductive values

More Computer Programs for Spatial Demographic Analysis

This report presents the algorithms and lists the FORTRAN IV codes of computer programs for the analysis of multiregional population systems. It is a continuation of the IIASA report RM-76-58. The following topics are included: mobility and fertility analyses of life table and stable populations; methodology and applications of the spatial reproductive value; and the study of the spatial demographic impacts of fertility reduced to replacement level. This report focuses on the interpretation of the output of the computer programs

Data Bases and accounting Frameworks for IIASA's Comparative Migration and Settlement Study

This paper reviews the accounting frameworks underpinning the data inputs to the Comparative Migration and Settlement (CMS) task now that the majority of country studies are either published as IIASA Research Reports or are in the publication pipeline. Rigorous comparisons are made of accounting, sex, age, time, and regional definitions used in the CMS set of studies, and the methods used to estimate required model inputs from available data are described. These comparisons and descriptions should serve as required reading for researchers embarking on further analysis of the CMS task outputs or on any future exercise in comparing the spatial patterns of population change and movement in different countries

Marital and Fertility Careers of Soviet Women: A Life Table Analysis

This paper uses recently published data and life table analysis to describe the marital and fertility behavior of women on a country level. The purpose of this paper is to explore the changes in nuptiality and fertility in the Soviet Union and the associated changes in women's lives. Soviet women differ greatly from women in Western Europe in their early start of marital and fertility careers. One-third of females are married before their 20th birthday. The age at which women have their first child is decreasing. Fifteen percent have at least one child at age 20, and 65 percent have one or more children at age 25. In the first part of the paper, multistate life table analysis is introduced to generate complete marital histories (biographies) of women as they pass through the reproductive ages (16-50). The second part describes fertility histories for two birth cohorts: 1940-1944 and 1950-1954, where the theory of staging or sequential processes is used to describe fertility careers

Normative Modelling in Demo-Economics

This report is an expository state-of-the-art review of several fundamental themes in two related but largely unconnected bodies of literature. The focus is on recent attempts to design comprehensive dynamic demo-economic policy models that are formally stated as optimal control problems. Two groups of models are distinguished: planning-oriented models, which originated in systems engineering and economics and which are designed to aid practical problem solving; and theoretically-oriented models, which have been developed in economic growth theory and which are intended to provide theoretical insights into the dynamics of economic systems. The formalisms of both are shown to have natural applications in demography

Migration and Settlement: A Multiregional Comparative Study

In 1976, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis initiated a study of migration and population distribution patterns in its 17 member nations. In each country, the analysis was carried out by a national scholar using techniques of multiregional demography. This paper describes the organization of the study, discusses the data bases used, evaluates the main results obtained, and reviews some of the methodological research that has been generated by the study. Among the conclusions of the paper are recommendations for researchers wishing to carry out a multiregional demographic analysis