The Inherent Predictability of Legislative Votes: The Perils of Successful Prediction

Most social science fields find prediction, even in the post-diction sense, to be very difficult. Predictive accuracy is generally low. Thus one would expect great enthusiasm once a field is able to move up to 80-90 percent correct prediction. This level has now been achieved in the legislative roll call analysis area. That would seem to suggest an important theoretical breakthrough has occurred in the area--until it becomes apparent that this same level of predictive success has been achieved by several different and competing theories. How does one go about choosing between theories in such situations? Are statistical criteria irrelevant at this juncture? How is this uniformly high success to be explained

Partisan Defection and Change in the 2008 US Presidential Election

Party identification remained an important determinant of vote choice in the 2008 election. Indeed, the extent to which people voted according to their partisanship remained as exceptionally high as it had been in the 2004 election. The Democrats led in partisanship, with a greater lead than in 2004. The ANES four‐wave panel survey shows that some change occurred in the Democratic direction during 2008. The Democrats gained among most population groups, with the exception of older citizens. Obama\u27s victory margin was due to his carrying pure independents and the growth in strong Democrats as opposed to strong Republicans. Both candidates lost the votes of some partisans who disagreed with them ideologically. The rate of defection among major‐party identifiers to the other major party hit post‐1950 lows in 2004 and 2008, reflecting increased polarization in the electorate. The partisanship shifts of young people and Hispanics could portend realignment, although that depends on their satisfaction with the Obama administration

Arecibo HI Absorption Measurements of Pulsars and the Electron Density at Intermediate Longitudes in the First Galactic Quadrant

We have used the Arecibo telescope to measure the HI absorption spectra of eight pulsars. We show how kinematic distance measurements depend upon the values of the galactic constants R_o and Theta_o, and we select our preferred current values from the literature. We then derive kinematic distances for the low-latitude pulsars in our sample and electron densities along their lines of sight. We combine these measurements with all others in the inner galactic plane visible from Arecibo to study the electron density in this region. The electron density in the interarm range 48 degrees < l < 70 degrees is [0.017 (-0.007,+0.012) (68% c.l.)] cm^(-3). This is 0.75 (-0.22,+0.49) (68% c.l.) of the value calculated by the Cordes & Lazio (2002) galactic electron density model. The model agrees more closely with electron density measurements toward Arecibo pulsars lying closer to the galactic center, at 30 degrees<l<48 degrees. Our analysis leads to the best current estimate of the distance of the relativistic binary pulsar B1913+16: d=(9.0 +/- 3) kpc. We use the high-latitude pulsars to search for small-scale structure in the interstellar hydrogen observed in absorption over multiple epochs. PSR B0301+19 exhibited significant changes in its absorption spectrum over 22 yr, indicating HI structure on a ~500 AU scale.Comment: Accepted by Astrophysical Journal September 200

Racial Attitude Effects in the 2008 Presidential Election: Examining the Unconventional Factors Shaping Vote Choice in a Most Unconventional Election

Every election has unique elements, but the 2008 U.S. presidential race had it all: an African-American presidential candidate who won his party’s nomination by defeating a former first lady, an historically unpopular outgoing president, two ongoing wars, a failing economy, and a war hero running for president with a female vice-presidential running mate. With so many unique elements to account for, disentangling their independent effects to identify the dominant factors shaping the 2008 election is a tremendous challenge. This paper explores a wide variety of factors potentially influencing the 2008 vote, but it devotes particular attention to two exceptionally relevant factors: racial attitudes and succession effects. We begin this paper with a discussion of racial attitudes and succession effects’ relevance to vote choice. Then we test the effects of racial attitudes and succession effects, as well as other important factors, on vote choice in 2008, by analyzing the 2008 American National Election Studies (ANES) traditional September–October pre-election survey and November–December post-election survey.1 Finally, we test whether the racial attitude effects found in our 2008 results are unique to the Obama candidacy, or if similar results would be obtained by comparable analysis of the two most recent elections not contested by an incumbent president, the elections of 1988 and 2000, or in the preceding election of 2004. Stated concisely, our analysis shows that, of all the unusual factors shaping vote choice in 2008, two particularly important ones were racial attitudes and dissatisfaction with the Bush Administration. The comparison with 1988 and 2000 shows that attitudes toward the previous administration generally affect voting even when the incumbent is not running, and regardless of whether the incumbent party’s presidential candidate was a member of the outgoing presidential administration. The comparison with previous elections, including 2004, also provides an important demonstration that the racial attitudes effect was specific to 2008. Clearly, the historic nomination of an African-American for the presidency made racial attitudes more important in voting than they had been in analogous elections

Toward a Theory of Legislative Decision

Recent developments in formal political analysis have spawned two seemingly related theories of democratic political processes. The more familiar of the two is the theory of electoral competition based on Downs' (1957) heuristics and greatly elaborated by Davis, Hinich and Ordeshook (1970), Kramer (1975), McKelvey (1976), and others. Somewhat less familiar (perhaps because the intellectual movement is less well integrated) is the theory of legislative decision which has grown from roots in game theory and the theory of social choice. Black (1958), Riker (1962), Plott (1967), Wilson (1969), Schwartz (1970), Kadane (1972), and several others have nurtured the rudimentary models which compose this theory

"Antiscepticism and Easy Justification" - Ch 5 of Seemings and Epistemic Justification

In this chapter I investigate epistemological consequences of the fact that seeming-based justification is elusive, in the sense that the subject can lose this justification simply by reflecting on her seemings. I argue that since seeming-based justification is elusive, the antisceptical bite of phenomenal conservatism is importantly limited. I also contend that since seeming-based justification has this feature, phenomenal conservatism isn’t actually afflicted by easy justification problems

The Inherent Predictability of Legislative Votes: The Perils of Successful Prediction

Most social science fields find prediction, even in the post-diction sense, to be very difficult. Predictive accuracy is generally low. Thus one would expect great enthusiasm once a field is able to move up to 80-90 percent correct prediction. This level has now been achieved in the legislative roll call analysis area. That would seem to suggest an important theoretical breakthrough has occurred in the area--until it becomes apparent that this same level of predictive success has been achieved by several different and competing theories. How does one go about choosing between theories in such situations? Are statistical criteria irrelevant at this juncture? How is this uniformly high success to be explained

Incidence and public health burden of sunburn among beachgoers in the United States.

The beach environment creates many barriers to effective sun protection, putting beachgoers at risk for sunburn, a well-established risk factor for skin cancer. Our objective was to estimate incidence of sunburn among beachgoers and evaluate the relationship between sunburn incidence and sun-protective behaviors. A secondary analysis, of prospective cohorts at 12 locations within the U.S. from 2003 to 2009 (n&nbsp;=&nbsp;75,614), were pooled to evaluate sunburn incidence 10-12&nbsp;days after the beach visit. Behavioral and environmental conditions were cross-tabulated with sunburn incidence. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the association between new sunburn and sun-protective behaviors. Overall, 13.1% of beachgoers reported sunburn. Those aged 13-18&nbsp;years (16.5%), whites (16.0%), and those at beach locations along the Eastern Seaboard (16.1%), had the highest incidence of sunburn. For those spending ≥5&nbsp;h in the sun, the use of multiple types of sun protection reduced odds of sunburn by 55% relative to those who used no sun protection (Odds Ratio&nbsp;=&nbsp;0.45 (95% Confidence Interval:0.27-0.77)) after adjusting for skin type, age, and race. Acute health effects of sunburn tend to be mild and self-limiting, but potential long-term health consequences are more serious and costly. Efforts to encourage and support proper sun-protective behaviors, and increase access to shade, protective clothing, and sunscreen, can help prevent sunburn and reduce skin cancer risk among beachgoers