MyTraces: Investigating Correlation and Causation between Users' Emotional States and Mobile Phone Interaction

Most of the existing work concerning the analysis of emotional states and mobile phone interaction has been based on correlation analysis. In this paper, for the first time, we carry out a causality study to investigate the causal links between users’ emotional states and their interaction with mobile phones, which could provide valuable information to practitioners and researchers. The analysis is based on a dataset collected in-the-wild. We recorded 5,118 mood reports from 28 users over a period of 20 days. Our results show that users’ emotions have a causal impact on different aspects of mobile phone interaction. On the other hand, we can observe a causal impact of the use of specific applications, reflecting the external users’ context, such as socializing and traveling, on happiness and stress level. This study has profound implications for the design of interactive mobile systems since it identifies the dimensions that have causal effects on users’ interaction with mobile phones and vice versa. These findings might lead to the design of more effective computing systems and services that rely on the analysis of the emotional state of users, for example for marketing and digital health applications

Probabilistic Matching: Causal Inference under Measurement Errors

The abundance of data produced daily from large variety of sources has boosted the need of novel approaches on causal inference analysis from observational data. Observational data often contain noisy or missing entries. Moreover, causal inference studies may require unobserved high-level information which needs to be inferred from other observed attributes. In such cases, inaccuracies of the applied inference methods will result in noisy outputs. In this study, we propose a novel approach for causal inference when one or more key variables are noisy. Our method utilizes the knowledge about the uncertainty of the real values of key variables in order to reduce the bias induced by noisy measurements. We evaluate our approach in comparison with existing methods both on simulated and real scenarios and we demonstrate that our method reduces the bias and avoids false causal inference conclusions in most cases

Non-parametric causality detection: An application to social media and financial data

According to behavioral finance, stock market returns are influenced by emotional, social and psychological factors. Several recent works support this theory by providing evidence of correlation between stock market prices and collective sentiment indexes measured using social media data. However, a pure correlation analysis is not sufficient to prove that stock market returns are influenced by such emotional factors since both stock market prices and collective sentiment may be driven by a third unmeasured factor. Controlling for factors that could influence the study by applying multivariate regression models is challenging given the complexity of stock market data. False assumptions about the linearity or non-linearity of the model and inaccuracies on model specification may result in misleading conclusions. In this work, we propose a novel framework for causal inference that does not require any assumption about the statistical relationships among the variables of the study and can effectively control a large number of factors. We apply our method in order to estimate the causal impact that information posted in social media may have on stock market returns of four big companies. Our results indicate that social media data not only correlate with stock market returns but also influence them

MyTraces: Investigating Correlation and Causation between Users\u2019 Emotional States and Mobile Phone Interaction

Most of the existing work concerning the analysis of emotional states and mobile phone interaction has been based on correlation analysis. In this paper, for the first time, we carry out a causality study to investigate the causal links between users\u2019 emotional states and their interaction with mobile phones, which could provide valuable information to practitioners and researchers. The analysis is based on a dataset collected in-the-wild. We recorded 5,118 mood reports from 28 users over a period of 20 days. Our results show that users\u2019 emotions have a causal impact on different aspects of mobile phone interaction. On the other hand, we can observe a causal impact of the use of specific applications, reflecting the external users\u2019 context, such as socializing and traveling, on happiness and stress level. This study has profound implications for the design of interactive mobile systems since it identifies the dimensions that have causal effects on users\u2019 interaction with mobile phones and vice versa. These findings might lead to the design of more effective computing systems and services that rely on the analysis of the emotional state of users, for example for marketing and digital health applications