Informality and financial development: A literature review

A large literature has documented an inverse relationship between financial development and the size of the informal economy, with some evidence that the link is non-monotonic and depends on the institutional environment. The direction of causality, however, remains a matter of debate, making it hard to identify the right policy interventions for better economic outcomes. This paper reviews this literature. Drawing on the theoretical literature, it sketches out the various channels through which financial development can influence firms' choice to operate informally at all or the degree to which they operate informally, or vice versa. In addition, this paper summarizes the empirical evidence that, at the moment, suggests causality running in either direction

Potential growth: A global database

Potential growth - the rate of expansion an economy can sustain at full capacity and employment - is a critical driver of development progress. It is also a major input in the formulation of fiscal and monetary policies over the business cycle. This paper introduces the most comprehensive database to date, covering the nine most commonly used measures of potential growth for up to 173 countries over 1981-2021. Based on this database, the paper presents three findings. First, all measures of global potential growth show a steady and widespread decline over the past decade, with all the fundamental drivers of growth losing momentum over time. In 2011-21, potential growth was below its 2000-10 average in nearly all advanced economies and roughly 60 percent of emerging market and developing economies. Second, adverse events, such as the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, contributed to the decline. At the country-level also, national recessions lowered potential growth even five years after their onset. Third, the persistent impact of recessions on potential growth operated through weaker growth of investment, employment, and productivit