Seasonal Flexibility in the European Natural Gas Market

The paper focuses on a seasonal demand swing in the European gas market. We quantify and compare the role of different flexibility options (domestic production, pipeline and LNG imports, and gas storages) in covering European demand fluctuations in monthly resolution. We contribute to the existing literature focusing on seasonal flexibility by addressing the problem with a mathematical gas market optimisation model. Empirically, our paper provides valuable insights with regard to declining North Western European gas production. Furthermore, we focus our discussion on specific flexibility features of pipeline versus LNG supplies and gas imports versus storage dispatch. In terms of methodology, we develop a bottom-up market optimisation model and publish the complete source code (which is still uncommon for gas market models). Furthermore, we propose a new metric based on the coefficient of variation to quantify the importance of supply sources for seasonal flexibility provision

Modelling Dynamic Constraints in Electricity Markets and the Costs of Uncertain Wind Output

Building on models that represent inter-temporal constraints in the optimal production decisions for electricity generation, the paper analysis the resulting costs and their impact on prices during the day. We linearise the unit commitment problem to facilitate the interpretation of shadow prices. Analytic research gives insights for a system with one technology and numeric implementation provides results for the German power system. The model is expanded to a stochastic optimisation with recourse. The model is used to calculate the cost of wind uncertainty and the value of updating wind forecasts.Electricity Markets, Energy Modelling, Optimisation Models,