Sub-national tailoring of malaria interventions in Mainland Tanzania: simulation of the impact of strata-specific intervention combinations using modelling

BACKGROUND: To accelerate progress against malaria in high burden countries, a strategic reorientation of resources at the sub-national level is needed. This paper describes how mathematical modelling was used in mainland Tanzania to support the strategic revision that followed the mid-term review of the 2015-2020 national malaria strategic plan (NMSP) and the epidemiological risk stratification at the council level in 2018. METHODS: Intervention mixes, selected by the National Malaria Control Programme, were simulated for each malaria risk strata per council. Intervention mixes included combinations of insecticide-treated bed nets (ITN), indoor residual spraying, larval source management, and intermittent preventive therapies for school children (IPTsc). Effective case management was either based on estimates from the malaria indicator survey in 2016 or set to a hypothetical target of 85%. A previously calibrated mathematical model in OpenMalaria was used to compare intervention impact predictions for prevalence and incidence between 2016 and 2020, or 2022. RESULTS: For each malaria risk stratum four to ten intervention mixes were explored. In the low-risk and urban strata, the scenario without a ITN mass campaign in 2019, predicted high increase in prevalence by 2020 and 2022, while in the very-low strata the target prevalence of less than 1% was maintained at low pre-intervention transmission intensity and high case management. In the moderate and high strata, IPTsc in addition to existing vector control was predicted to reduce the incidence by an additional 15% and prevalence by 22%. In the high-risk strata, all interventions together reached a maximum reduction of 76%, with around 70% of that reduction attributable to high case management and ITNs. Overall, the simulated revised NMSP was predicted to achieve a slightly lower prevalence in 2020 compared to the 2015-2020 NMSP (5.3% vs 6.3%). CONCLUSION: Modelling supported the choice of intervention per malaria risk strata by providing impact comparisons of various alternative intervention mixes to address specific questions relevant to the country. The use of a council-calibrated model, that reproduces local malaria trends, represents a useful tool for compiling available evidence into a single analytical platform, that complement other evidence, to aid national programmes with decision-making processes

Spatio-temporal modelling of routine health facility data for malaria risk micro-stratification in mainland Tanzania

As malaria transmission declines, the need to monitor the heterogeneity of malaria risk at finer scales becomes critical to guide community-based targeted interventions. Although routine health facility (HF) data can provide epidemiological evidence at high spatial and temporal resolution, its incomplete nature of information can result in lower administrative units without empirical data. To overcome geographic sparsity of data and its representativeness, geo-spatial models can leverage routine information to predict risk in un-represented areas as well as estimate uncertainty of predictions. Here, a Bayesian spatio-temporal model was applied on malaria test positivity rate (TPR) data for the period 2017-2019 to predict risks at the ward level, the lowest decision-making unit in mainland Tanzania. To quantify the associated uncertainty, the probability of malaria TPR exceeding programmatic threshold was estimated. Results showed a marked spatial heterogeneity in malaria TPR across wards. 17.7 million people resided in areas where malaria TPR was high (>/= 30; 90% certainty) in the North-West and South-East parts of Tanzania. Approximately 11.7 million people lived in areas where malaria TPR was very low (< 5%; 90% certainty). HF data can be used to identify different epidemiological strata and guide malaria interventions at micro-planning units in Tanzania. These data, however, are imperfect in many settings in Africa and often require application of geo-spatial modelling techniques for estimation

The use of routine health facility data for micro-stratification of malaria risk in mainland Tanzania

BACKGROUND: Current efforts to estimate the spatially diverse malaria burden in malaria-endemic countries largely involve the use of epidemiological modelling methods for describing temporal and spatial heterogeneity using sparse interpolated prevalence data from periodic cross-sectional surveys. However, more malaria-endemic countries are beginning to consider local routine data for this purpose. Nevertheless, routine information from health facilities (HFs) remains widely under-utilized despite improved data quality, including increased access to diagnostic testing and the adoption of the electronic District Health Information System (DHIS2). This paper describes the process undertaken in mainland Tanzania using routine data to develop a high-resolution, micro-stratification risk map to guide future malaria control efforts. METHODS: Combinations of various routine malariometric indicators collected from 7098 HFs were assembled across 3065 wards of mainland Tanzania for the period 2017-2019. The reported council-level prevalence classification in school children aged 5-16 years (PfPR(5-16)) was used as a benchmark to define four malaria risk groups. These groups were subsequently used to derive cut-offs for the routine indicators by minimizing misclassifications and maximizing overall agreement. The derived-cutoffs were converted into numbered scores and summed across the three indicators to allocate wards into their overall risk stratum. RESULTS: Of 3065 wards, 353 were assigned to the very low strata (10.5% of the total ward population), 717 to the low strata (28.6% of the population), 525 to the moderate strata (16.2% of the population), and 1470 to the high strata (39.8% of the population). The resulting micro-stratification revealed malaria risk heterogeneity within 80 councils and identified wards that would benefit from community-level focal interventions, such as community-case management, indoor residual spraying and larviciding. CONCLUSION: The micro-stratification approach employed is simple and pragmatic, with potential to be easily adopted by the malaria programme in Tanzania. It makes use of available routine data that are rich in spatial resolution and that can be readily accessed allowing for a stratification of malaria risk below the council level. Such a framework is optimal for supporting evidence-based, decentralized malaria control planning, thereby improving the effectiveness and allocation efficiency of malaria control interventions

Sub-national stratification of malaria risk in mainland Tanzania: a simplified assembly of survey and routine data

Recent malaria control efforts in mainland Tanzania have led to progressive changes in the prevalence of malaria infection in children, from 18.1% (2008) to 7.3% (2017). As the landscape of malaria transmission changes, a sub-national stratification becomes crucial for optimized cost-effective implementation of interventions. This paper describes the processes, data and outputs of the approach used to produce a simplified, pragmatic malaria risk stratification of 184 councils in mainland Tanzania.; Assemblies of annual parasite incidence and fever test positivity rate for the period 2016-2017 as well as confirmed malaria incidence and malaria positivity in pregnant women for the period 2015-2017 were obtained from routine district health information software. In addition, parasite prevalence in school children (PfPR; 5to16; ) were obtained from the two latest biennial council representative school malaria parasitaemia surveys, 2014-2015 and 2017. The PfPR; 5to16; served as a guide to set appropriate cut-offs for the other indicators. For each indicator, the maximum value from the past 3 years was used to allocate councils to one of four risk groups: very low (< 1%PfPR; 5to16; ), low (1- < 5%PfPR; 5to16; ), moderate (5- < 30%PfPR; 5to16; ) and high (≥ 30%PfPR; 5to16; ). Scores were assigned to each risk group per indicator per council and the total score was used to determine the overall risk strata of all councils.; Out of 184 councils, 28 were in the very low stratum (12% of the population), 34 in the low stratum (28% of population), 49 in the moderate stratum (23% of population) and 73 in the high stratum (37% of population). Geographically, most of the councils in the low and very low strata were situated in the central corridor running from the north-east to south-west parts of the country, whilst the areas in the moderate to high strata were situated in the north-west and south-east regions.; A stratification approach based on multiple routine and survey malaria information was developed. This pragmatic approach can be rapidly reproduced without the use of sophisticated statistical methods, hence, lies within the scope of national malaria programmes across Africa

Evaluation of a single screen and treat strategy to detect asymptomatic malaria among pregnant women from selected health facilities in Lindi region, Tanzania

Background In areas of high transmission, malaria in pregnancy (MiP) primarily causes asymptomatic infections; these infections nonetheless increase the risk of adverse maternal and fetal outcomes. In 2014, Tanzania initiated a single screening and treatment (SST) strategy for all pregnant women at their first antenatal care (ANC) visit using malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) for surveillance purposes. However, there is paucity of data on the effectiveness of SST in the prevention of MiP. The objective of this study was to estimate the number of asymptomatic infections among pregnant women detected by SST, which would have been missed in the absence of the policy. Methods Data from pregnant women attending their first ANC visits between October 2017 and June 2018, including gestational age, history of fever, and RDT results, were abstracted from ANC registers in eight health centres in two randomly selected districts, Kilwa and Lindi, in Lindi Region. The proportion of symptomatic (with history of fever in the past 48 h) and asymptomatic pregnant women with positive RDTs were calculated and stratified by trimester (first, second and third). The study areas were categorized as low transmission with prevalence < 10% or moderate/high with ≥ 10%. Results Over the study period, 1,845 women attended their first ANC visits; 22.1% were in the first trimester (< 12 weeks gestation age). Overall 15.0% of the women had positive RDTs, and there was a trend towards higher malaria prevalence in the first (15.9%) and second (15.2%) trimesters, compared to the third (7.1%), although the differences were not statistically significant (p = 0.07). In total, 6.9% of women reported fever within the past 48 h and, of these, 96.1% were RDT positive. For every 100 pregnant women in the moderate/high and low transmission areas, SST identified 60 and 26 pregnant women, respectively, with asymptomatic infections that would have otherwise been missed. Among the 15.9% of women detected in the first trimester, 50.7% were asymptomatic. Conclusion In areas of moderate/high transmission, many infected women were asymptomatic, and would have been missed in the absence of SST. The benefits on maternal and fetal birth outcomes of identifying these infections depend heavily on the protection afforded by treatment, which is likely to be greatest for women presenting in the first trimester when intermittent preventive treatment (IPTp) with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) is contraindicated, and in areas with high SP resistance, such as most parts of Tanzania. An evaluation of the impact and cost-effectiveness of SST across different transmission strata is warranted

Evaluating malaria prevalence and land cover across varying transmission intensity in Tanzania using a cross-sectional survey of school-aged children

BACKGROUND: Transmission of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa has become increasingly stratified following decades of malaria control interventions. The extent to which environmental and land cover risk factors for malaria may differ across distinct strata of transmission intensity is not well known and could provide actionable targets to maximize the success of malaria control efforts. METHODS: This study used cross-sectional malaria survey data from a nationally representative cohort of school-aged children in Tanzania, and satellite-derived measures for environmental features and land cover. Hierarchical logistic regression models were applied to evaluate associations between land cover and malaria prevalence within three distinct strata of transmission intensity: low and unstable, moderate and seasonal, and high and perennial. RESULTS: In areas with low malaria transmission, each 10-percentage point increase in cropland cover was associated with an increase in malaria prevalence odds of 2.44 (95% UI: 1.27, 5.11). However, at moderate and higher levels of transmission intensity, no association between cropland cover and malaria prevalence was detected. Small associations were observed between greater grassland cover and greater malaria prevalence in high intensity settings (prevalence odds ratio (POR): 1.10, 95% UI: 1.00, 1.21), and between greater forest cover and reduced malaria prevalence in low transmission areas (POR: 0.74, 95% UI: 0.51, 1.03), however the uncertainty intervals of both estimates included the null. CONCLUSIONS: The intensity of malaria transmission appears to modify relationships between land cover and malaria prevalence among school-aged children in Tanzania. In particular, greater cropland cover was positively associated with increased malaria prevalence in areas with low transmission intensity and presents an actionable target for environmental vector control interventions to complement current malaria control activities. As areas are nearing malaria elimination, it is important to re-evaluate environmental risk factors and employ appropriate interventions to effectively address low-level malaria transmission

Implementation research of a cluster randomized trial evaluating the implementation and effectiveness of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria using dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine on reducing malaria burden in school-aged children in Tanzania: methodology, challenges, and mitigation

BACKGROUND: It has been more than 20 years since the malaria epidemiologic shift to school-aged children was noted. In the meantime, school-aged children (5-15 years) have become increasingly more vulnerable with asymptomatic malaria prevalence reaching up to 70%, making them reservoirs for subsequent transmission of malaria in the endemic communities. Intermittent Preventive Treatment of malaria in schoolchildren (IPTsc) has proven to be an effective tool to shrink this reservoir. As of 3(rd) June 2022, the World Health Organization recommends IPTsc in moderate and high endemic areas. Even so, for decision-makers, the adoption of scientific research recommendations has been stifled by real-world implementation challenges. This study presents methodology, challenges faced, and mitigations used in the evaluation of the implementation of IPTsc using dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) in three councils (Handeni District Council (DC), Handeni Town Council (TC) and Kilindi DC) of Tanga Region, Tanzania so as to understand the operational feasibility and effectiveness of IPTsc on malaria parasitaemia and clinical malaria incidence. METHODS: The study deployed an effectiveness-implementation hybrid design to assess feasibility and effectiveness of IPTsc using DP, the interventional drug, against standard of care (control). Wards in the three study councils were the randomization unit (clusters). Each ward was randomized to implement IPTsc or not (control). In all wards in the IPTsc arm, DP was given to schoolchildren three times a year in four-month intervals. In each council, 24 randomly selected wards (12 per study arm, one school per ward) were chosen as representatives for intervention impact evaluation. Mixed design methods were used to assess the feasibility and acceptability of implementing IPTsc as part of a more comprehensive health package for schoolchildren. The study reimagined an existing school health programme for Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTD) control include IPTsc implementation. RESULTS: The study shows IPTsc can feasibly be implemented by integrating it into existing school health and education systems, paving the way for sustainable programme adoption in a cost-effective manner. CONCLUSIONS: Through this article other interested countries may realise a feasible plan for IPTsc implementation. Mitigation to any challenge can be customized based on local circumstances without jeopardising the gains expected from an IPTsc programme. Trial registration clinicaltrials.gov, NCT04245033. Registered 28 January 2020, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04245033

Potential opportunities and challenges of deploying next generation sequencing and CRISPR-cas systems to support diagnostics and surveillance towards malaria control and elimination in Africa

Recent developments in molecular biology and genomics have revolutionized biology and medicine mainly in the developed world. The application of next generation sequencing (NGS) and CRISPR-Cas tools is now poised to support endemic countries in the detection, monitoring and control of endemic diseases and future epidemics, as well as with emerging and re-emerging pathogens. Most low and middle income countries (LMICs) with the highest burden of infectious diseases still largely lack the capacity to generate and perform bioinformatic analysis of genomic data. These countries have also not deployed tools based on CRISPR-Cas technologies. For LMICs including Tanzania, it is critical to focus not only on the process of generation and analysis of data generated using such tools, but also on the utilization of the findings for policy and decision making. Here we discuss the promise and challenges of NGS and CRISPR-Cas in the context of malaria as Africa moves towards malaria elimination. These innovative tools are urgently needed to strengthen the current diagnostic and surveillance systems. We discuss ongoing efforts to deploy these tools for malaria detection and molecular surveillance highlighting potential opportunities presented by these innovative technologies as well as challenges in adopting them. Their deployment will also offer an opportunity to broadly build in-country capacity in pathogen genomics and bioinformatics, and to effectively engage with multiple stakeholders as well as policy makers, overcoming current workforce and infrastructure challenges. Overall, these ongoing initiatives will build the malaria molecular surveillance capacity of African researchers and their institutions, and allow them to generate genomics data and perform bioinformatics analysis in-country in order to provide critical information that will be used for real-time policy and decision-making to support malaria elimination on the continent

Effectiveness of the innovative 1,7-malaria reactive community-based testing and response (1, 7-mRCTR) approach on malaria burden reduction in Southeastern Tanzania

In 2015, a China-UK-Tanzania tripartite pilot project was implemented in southeastern Tanzania to explore a new model for reducing malaria burden and possibly scaling-out the approach into other malaria-endemic countries. The 1,7-malaria Reactive Community-based Testing and Response (1,7-mRCTR) which is a locally-tailored approach for reporting febrile malaria cases in endemic villages was developed to stop transmission and Plasmodium life-cycle. The (1,7-mRCTR) utilizes existing health facility data and locally trained community health workers to conduct community-level testing and treatment.; The pilot project was implemented from September 2015 to June 2018 in Rufiji District, southern Tanzania. The study took place in four wards, two with low incidence and two with a higher incidence. One ward of each type was selected for each of the control and intervention arms. The control wards implemented the existing Ministry of Health programmes. The 1,7-mRCTR activities implemented in the intervention arm included community testing and treatment of malaria infection. Malaria case-to-suspect ratios at health facilities (HF) were aggregated by villages, weekly to identify the village with the highest ratio. Community-based mobile test stations (cMTS) were used for conducting mass testing and treatment. Baseline (pre) and endline (post) household surveys were done in the control and intervention wards to assess the change in malaria prevalence measured by the interaction term of 'time' (post vs pre) and arm in a logistic model. A secondary analysis also studied the malaria incidence reported at the HFs during the intervention.; Overall the 85 rounds of 1,7-mRCTR conducted in the intervention wards significantly reduced the odds of malaria infection by 66% (adjusted OR 0.34, 95% CI 0.26,0.44, p < 0001) beyond the effect of the standard programmes. Malaria prevalence in the intervention wards declined by 81% (from 26% (95% CI 23.7, 7.8), at baseline to 4.9% (95% CI 4.0, 5.9) at endline). In villages receiving the 1,7-mRCTR, the short-term case ratio decreased by over 15.7% (95% CI - 33, 6) compared to baseline.; The 1,7-mRCTR approach significantly reduced the malaria burden in the areas of high transmission in rural southern Tanzania. This locally tailored approach could accelerate malaria control and elimination efforts. The results provide the impetus for further evaluation of the effectiveness and scaling up of this approach in other high malaria burden countries in Africa, including Tanzania