Portfolio decision analysis for pandemic sentiment assessment based on finance and web queries

COVID-19 has spread worldwide, affecting people’s health and the socio-economic environment. Such a pandemic is responsible for people’s deteriorated mood, pessimism, and lack of trust in the future. This paper presents a portfolio decision analysis framework for policymakers aiming at recovering the population from psychological distress. Specifically, we explore the relative relevance of a country to the overall “mood of the world” in light of pursuing predefined targets through optimization criteria. Toward this aim, we design a statistical indicator for measuring the mood by considering the financial markets’ outcomes and the people’s online searches about COVID-19. Then, we adapt existing portfolio selection models to evaluate the role of an extensive collection of countries and stock markets based on different criteria. More precisely, such criteria are established assuming “rational” goals of a policymaker, namely to aspire to a general and stable optimism and avoid waves of opposite moods or excess pessimism. Empirical experiments validate the theoretical proposal. The employed dataset contains 39 countries selected on the basis of data reliability and relevance in the context of COVID-19. Data on daily Google Trends searches of the term “coronavirus” (and its translations) and closing prices of relevant domestic stock indexes are considered for 2020 to develop the statistical mood indicator. Results offer different insights based on the selected optimization criteria. The practical implications of the proposed models have been illustrated through arguments based on a National Recovery and Resilience Plan-type normative framework

Portfolio selection problems in practice: a comparison between linear and quadratic optimization models

Several portfolio selection models take into account practical limitations on the number of assets to include and on their weights in the portfolio. We present here a study of the Limited Asset Markowitz (LAM), of the Limited Asset Mean Absolute Deviation (LAMAD) and of the Limited Asset Conditional Value-at-Risk (LACVaR) models, where the assets are limited with the introduction of quantity and cardinality constraints. We propose a completely new approach for solving the LAM model, based on reformulation as a Standard Quadratic Program and on some recent theoretical results. With this approach we obtain optimal solutions both for some well-known financial data sets used by several other authors, and for some unsolved large size portfolio problems. We also test our method on five new data sets involving real-world capital market indices from major stock markets. Our computational experience shows that, rather unexpectedly, it is easier to solve the quadratic LAM model with our algorithm, than to solve the linear LACVaR and LAMAD models with CPLEX, one of the best commercial codes for mixed integer linear programming (MILP) problems. Finally, on the new data sets we have also compared, using out-of-sample analysis, the performance of the portfolios obtained by the Limited Asset models with the performance provided by the unconstrained models and with that of the official capital market indices

A new family of modified Gaussian copulas for market consistent valuation of government guarantees

This paper deals with a copula-based stochastic dependence problem in the context of financial risks. We discuss the financial framework for assessing the theoretical up-front value of government guarantees on bank liabilities. EU States widely use these contracts to improve the financial system’s stability and manage the banking sector in crisis situations; in Italy, they have also been used to address the consequences of the Covid-19 emergency. From a market viewpoint, we deal with a defaultable guarantee contract where the State-guarantor and the bank-borrower are both subject to default risk, and their risks are interconnected. We show that the classical Gaussian copula is not satisfactory for modeling the dependence among the considered risks. Indeed, using the benchmark market model for credit risk portfolio management, we highlight some contradictory results observed for the up-front values of the guarantee when the default intensity of the guarantor is smaller than that of the borrower. Then, we introduce a new family of modified Gaussian copulas that overcomes the limitations of the standard approach, allowing to determine realistic results in terms of the guarantees “mark-to-model” value when the benchmark market model does not work. Numerical simulations validate the theoretical proposal

Portfolio selection problems in practice: a comparison between linear and quadratic optimization models

Several portfolio selection models take into account practical limitations on the number of assets to include and on their weights in the portfolio. We present here a study of the Limited Asset Markowitz (LAM), of the Limited Asset Mean Absolute Deviation (LAMAD) and of the Limited Asset Conditional Value-at-Risk (LACVaR) models, where the assets are limited with the introduction of quantity and cardinality constraints. We propose a completely new approach for solving the LAM model, based on reformulation as a Standard Quadratic Program and on some recent theoretical results. With this approach we obtain optimal solutions both for some well-known financial data sets used by several other authors, and for some unsolved large size portfolio problems. We also test our method on five new data sets involving real-world capital market indices from major stock markets. Our computational experience shows that, rather unexpectedly, it is easier to solve the quadratic LAM model with our algorithm, than to solve the linear LACVaR and LAMAD models with CPLEX, one of the best commercial codes for mixed integer linear programming (MILP) problems. Finally, on the new data sets we have also compared, using out-of-sample analysis, the performance of the portfolios obtained by the Limited Asset models with the performance provided by the unconstrained models and with that of the official capital market indices

Air Travel and Venous Thromboembolism: A Systematic Review

CONTEXT: Despite multiple attempts to document and quantify the danger of venous thromboembolism (VTE) following prolonged travel, there is still uncertainty about the magnitude of risk and what can be done to lower it. OBJECTIVES: To review the methodologic strength of the literature, estimate the risk of travel-related VTE, evaluate the efficacy of preventive treatments, and develop evidence-based recommendations for practice. DATA SOURCES: Studies identified from MEDLINE from 1966 through December 2005, supplemented by a review of the Cochrane Central Registry of Controlled Trials, the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, and relevant bibliographies. STUDY SELECTION: We included all clinical studies that either reported primary data concerning travel as a risk factor for VTE or tested preventive measures for travel-related VTE. DATA EXTRACTION AND ANALYSIS: Two reviewers reviewed each study independently to assess inclusion criteria, classify research design, and rate methodologic features. The effect of methodologic differences, VTE risk, and travel duration on VTE rate was evaluated using a logistic regression model. DATA SYNTHESIS: Twenty-four published reports, totaling 25 studies, met inclusion criteria (6 case-control studies, 10 cohort studies, and 9 randomized controlled trials). Method of screening for VTE [screening ultrasound compared to usual clinical care, odds ratio (OR) 390], outcome measure [all VTE compared to pulmonary embolism (PE) only, OR 21], duration of travel (<6 hours compared to 6–8 hours, OR 0.011), and clinical risk (“higher” risk travelers compared to “lower,” OR 3.6) were significantly related to VTE rate. Clinical VTE after prolonged travel is rare [27 PE per million flights diagnosed through usual clinical care, 0.05% symptomatic deep venous thrombosis (DVT) diagnosed through screening ultrasounds], but asymptomatic thrombi of uncertain clinical significance are more common. Graduated compression stockings prevented travel-related VTE (P < 0.05 in 4 of 6 studies), aspirin did not, and low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) showed a trend toward efficacy in one study. CONCLUSIONS: All travelers, regardless of VTE risk, should avoid dehydration and frequently exercise leg muscles. Travelers on a flight of less than 6 hours and those with no known risk factors for VTE, regardless of the duration of the flight, do not need DVT prophylaxis. Travelers with 1 or more risk factors for VTE should consider graduated compression stockings and/or LMWH for flights longer than 6 hours

Control of edema in hypertensive subjects treated with calcium antagonist (nifedipine) or angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors with Pycnogenol.

The presence of edema in different phases and stages of essential hypertension may be due to antihypertensive treatment. Some drugs may cause edema by inducing vasodilatation, increasing the capillary exchange surface and capillary filtration. Pycnogenol has an important anti-edema effect in diabetic microangiopathy and chronic venous insufficiency. This 8-week study evaluated capillary filtration in 2 comparable treatment groups with hypertension treated with a calcium antagonist (nifedipine) or angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor to define its efficacy in preventing edema caused by antihypertensives. A significant decrease in filtration was observed in the Pycnogenol groups. Pycnogenol controls this type of edema, it helps to prevent and limit long-term damage in the microcirculation in hypertensive patients, and allows the dose of anti-hypertensive drugs to be reduced in most patients

Prospectus, August 26, 1991

https://spark.parkland.edu/prospectus_1991/1011/thumbnail.jp

The Epidemiologic Study in San Valentino

The efficacy of a 2-month treatment with oral colostrum in the prevention of flu episodes compared with antiinfluenza vaccination was evaluated. Groups included healthy subjects without prophylaxis and those receiving both vaccination and colostrum. After 3 months of follow-up, the number of days with flu was 3 times higher in the non-colostrum subjects. The colostrum group had 13 episodes versus 14 in the colostrum + vaccination group, 41 in the group without prophylaxis, and 57 in nontreated subjects. Part 2 of the study had a similar protocol with 65 very high-risk cardiovascular subjects, all of whom had prophylaxis. The incidence of complications and hospital admission was higher in the group that received only a vaccination compared with the colostrum groups. Colostrum, both in healthy subjects and high-risk cardiovascular patients, is at least 3 times more effective than vaccination to prevent flu and is very cost-effective

Water displacement leg volumetry in clinical studies - A discussion of error sources

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Water displacement leg volumetry is a highly reproducible method, allowing the confirmation of efficacy of vasoactive substances. Nevertheless errors of its execution and the selection of unsuitable patients are likely to negatively affect the outcome of clinical studies in chronic venous insufficiency (CVI).</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Placebo controlled double-blind drug studies in CVI were searched (Cochrane Review 2005, MedLine Search until December 2007) and assessed with regard to efficacy (volume reduction of the leg), patient characteristics, and potential methodological error sources. Almost every second study reported only small drug effects (≤ 30 mL volume reduction). As the most relevant error source the conduct of volumetry was identified. Because the practical use of available equipment varies, volume differences of more than 300 mL - which is a multifold of a potential treatment effect - have been reported between consecutive measurements. Other potential error sources were insufficient patient guidance or difficulties with the transition from the Widmer CVI classification to the CEAP (Clinical Etiological Anatomical Pathophysiological) grading.</p> <p>Summary</p> <p>Patients should be properly diagnosed with CVI and selected for stable oedema and further clinical symptoms relevant for the specific study. Centres require a thorough training on the use of the volumeter and on patient guidance. Volumetry should be performed under constant conditions. The reproducibility of short term repeat measurements has to be ensured.</p

Lack of Effect of Sleep Apnea on Oxidative Stress in Obstructive Sleep Apnea Syndrome (OSAS) Patients

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to evaluate markers of systemic oxidative stress and antioxidant capacity in subjects with and without OSAS in order to investigate the most important factors that determine the oxidant-antioxidant status. METHODS: A total of 66 subjects referred to our Sleep laboratory were examined by full polysomnography. Oxidative stress and antioxidant activity were assessed by measurement of the derivatives of reactive oxygen metabolites (d-ROMs) and the biological antioxidant capacity (BAP) in blood samples taken in the morning after the sleep study. Known risk factors for oxidative stress, such as age, sex, obesity, smoking, hypelipidemia, and hypertension, were investigated as possible confounding factors. RESULTS: 42 patients with OSAS (Apnea-Hypopnea index >15 events/hour) were compared with 24 controls (AHI<5). The levels of d-ROMS were significantly higher (p = 0.005) in the control group but the levels of antioxidant capacity were significantly lower (p = 0.004) in OSAS patients. The most important factors predicting the variance of oxidative stress were obesity, smoking habit, and sex. Parameters of sleep apnea severity were not associated with oxidative stress. Minimal oxygen desaturation and smoking habit were the most important predicting factors of BAP levels. CONCLUSION: Obesity, smoking, and sex are the most important determinants of oxidative stress in OSAS subjects. Sleep apnea might enhance oxidative stress by the reduction of antioxidant capacity of blood due to nocturnal hypoxia