Multi-method Exploration of the Economic Sustainability of Probiotic Yoghurt Kitchens in Mwanza, Tanzania

This research aimed to examine the economic and locational aspects of a probiotic yoghurt kitchen development project facilitated by Western Heads East in Mwanza, Tanzania. This study is based upon 41 semi-structured interviews with 57 participants in three groups: kitchen group members, customers, and staff of the African Probiotic Yoghurt Network. This research contributes to the literature on development geography, specifically on the ins and outs of the everyday of the kitchens, as well as proposing a new approach to multicriteria evaluation using qualitative data, and the ‘researcher as instrument’ approach. The results demonstrate that while there are problems in the operation and communication of the kitchens and overseeing organization, this type of project should not be written off

Can we accurately forecast non-elective bed occupancy and admissions in the NHS?:A time-series MSARIMA analysis of longitudinal data from an NHS Trust

OBJECTIVES: The main objective of the study was to develop more accurate and precise short-term forecasting models for admissions and bed occupancy for an NHS Trust located in Bristol, England. Subforecasts for the medical and surgical specialties, and for different lengths of stay were realised DESIGN: Autoregressive integrated moving average models were specified on a training dataset of daily count data, then tested on a 6-week forecast horizon. Explanatory variables were included in the models: day of the week, holiday days, lagged temperature and precipitation. SETTING: A secondary care hospital in an NHS Trust in South West England. PARTICIPANTS: Hospital admissions between September 2016 and March 2020, comprising 1291 days. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The accuracy of the forecasts was assessed through standard measures, as well as compared with the actual data using accuracy thresholds of 10% and 20% of the mean number of admissions or occupied beds. RESULTS: The overall Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) admissions forecast was compared with the Trust’s forecast, and found to be more accurate, namely, being closer to the actual value 95.6% of the time. Furthermore, it was more precise than the Trust’s. The subforecasts, as well as those for bed occupancy, tended to be less accurate compared with the overall forecasts. All of the explanatory variables improved the forecasts. CONCLUSIONS: ARIMA models can forecast non-elective admissions in an NHS Trust accurately on a 6-week horizon, which is an improvement on the current predictive modelling in the Trust. These models can be readily applied to other contexts, improving patient flow

Associations of GP practice characteristics with the rate of ambulatory care sensitive conditions in people living with dementia in England:an ecological analysis of routine data

Abstract Background Hospital admissions for Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions (ACSCs) are potentially avoidable. Dementia is one of the leading chronic conditions in terms of variability in ACSC admissions by general practice, as well as accounting for around a third of UK emergency admissions. Methods Using Bayesian multilevel linear regression models, we examined the ecological association of organizational characteristics of general practices (ACSC n=7076, non-ACSC n=7046 units) and Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCG n=212 units) in relation to ACSC and non-ACSC admissions for people with dementia in England. Results The rate of hospital admissions are variable between GP practices, with deprivation and being admitted from home as risk factors for admission for ACSC and non-ACSC admissions. The budget allocated by the CCG to mental health shows diverging effects for ACSC versus non-ACSC admissions, so it is likely there is some geographic variation. Conclusions A variety of factors that could explain avoidable admissions for PWD at the practice level were examined; most were equally predictive for avoidable and non-avoidable admissions. However, a high amount of variation found at the practice level, in conjunction with the diverging effects of the CCG mental health budget, implies that guidance may be applied inconsistently, or local services may have differences in referral criteria. This indicates there is potential scope for improvement

SARS-CoV-2 Infection and the Risk of Suicidal and Self-Harm Thoughts and Behaviour:A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVE: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a complex impact on risks of suicide and non-fatal self-harm worldwide with some evidence of increased risk in specific populations including women, young people, and people from ethnic minority backgrounds. This review aims to systematically address whether SARS-CoV-2 infection and/or COVID-19 disease confer elevated risk directly. METHOD: As part of a larger Living Systematic Review examining self-harm and suicide during the pandemic, automated daily searches using a broad list of keywords were performed on a comprehensive set of databases with data from relevant articles published between January 1, 2020 and July 18, 2021. Eligibility criteria for our present review included studies investigating suicide and/or self-harm in people infected with SARS-CoV-2 with or without manifestations of COVID-19 disease with a comparator group who did not have infection or disease. Suicidal and self-harm thoughts and behaviour (STBs) were outcomes of interest. Studies were excluded if they reported data for people who only had potential infection/disease without a confirmed exposure, clinical/molecular diagnosis or self-report of a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result. Studies of news reports, treatment studies, and ecological studies examining rates of both SARS-CoV-2 infections and suicide/self-harm rates across a region were also excluded. RESULTS: We identified 12 studies examining STBs in nine distinct samples of people with SARS-CoV-2. These studies, which investigated STBs in the general population and in subpopulations, including healthcare workers, generally found positive associations between SARS-CoV-2 infection and/or COVID-19 disease and subsequent suicidal/self-harm thoughts and suicidal/self-harm behaviour. CONCLUSIONS: This review identified some evidence that infection with SARS-CoV-2 and/or COVID-19 disease may be associated with increased risks for suicidal and self-harm thoughts and behaviours but a causal link cannot be inferred. Further research with longer follow-up periods is required to confirm these findings and to establish whether these associations are causal

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on self-harm and suicidal behaviour: a living systematic review

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused widespread morbidity and mortality as well as disruption to people’s lives and livelihoods around the world; this has occurred as a result of both infection with the virus itself and the health protection measures taken to curb its spread. There are concerns that rates of suicide, suicidal behaviours and self-harm may rise during and in the aftermath of the pandemic. Given the likely rapidly expanding research evidence base on the pandemic’s impact on rates of suicide, suicidal behaviours and self-harm and emerging evidence about how best to mitigate such effects, it is important that the best available knowledge is made readily available to policymakers, public health specialists and clinicians as soon as is possible. To facilitate this, we plan to undertake a living systematic review focusing on suicide prevention in relation to COVID-19.Method: Regular automated searches will feed into a web-based screening system which will also host the data extraction form for included articles. Our eligibility criteria are wide and include aspects of incidence and prevalence of suicidal behaviour, effects of exposures and effects of interventions in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic, with minimal restrictions on the types of study design to be included. The outcomes assessed will be death by suicide; self-harm or attempted suicide (including hospital attendance and/or admission for these reasons); and suicidal thoughts/ideation. There will be no restriction on study type, except for single case reports. There will be no restriction on language of publication. The review will be updated at three-monthly intervals if a sufficient volume of new evidence justifies doing so.Conclusions: Our living review will provide a regular synthesis of the most up-to-date research evidence to guide public health and clinical policy to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on suicide.Protocol registration: PROSPERO CRD42020183326 01/05/202