Linking a storyline with multiple models: a cross-scale study of the UK power system transition

State-of-the-art scenario exercises in the energy and environment fields argue for combining qualitative storylines with quantitative modelling. This paper proposes an approach for linking a highly detailed storyline with multiple, diverse models. This approach is illustrated through a cross-scale study of the UK power system transition until 2050. The storyline, called Central Co-ordination, is linked with insights from six power system models and two appraisal techniques. First, the storyline is ‘translated’ into harmonised assumptions on power system targets for the models. Then, a new concept called the landscape of models is introduced. This landscape helps to map the key fields of expertise of individual models, including their temporal, spatial and disciplinary foci. The storyline is then assessed based on the cross-scale modelling results. While the storyline is important for transmitting information about governance and the choices of key actors, many targets aspired in it are inconsistent with modelling results. The storyline overestimates demand reduction levels, uptake of marine renewables and irreplaceability of carbon capture and storage. It underestimates the supply–demand balancing challenge, the need for back-up capacity and the role of nuclear power and interconnectors with Europe. Thus, iteratively linking storylines and models is key

Context-Specific Energy Strategies: Coupling Energy System Visions with Feasible Implementation Scenarios

Conventional energy strategy defines an energy system vision (the goal), energy scenarios with technical choices and an implementation mechanism (such as economic incentives). Due to the lead of a generic vision, when applied in a specific regional context, such a strategy can deviate from the optimal one with, for instance, the lowest environmental impacts. This paper proposes an approach for developing energy strategies by simultaneously, rather than sequentially, combining multiple energy system visions and technically feasible, cost-effective energy scenarios that meet environmental constraints at a given place. The approach is illustrated by developing a residential heat supply strategy for a Swiss region. In the analyzed case, urban municipalities should focus on reducing heat demand, and rural municipalities should focus on harvesting local energy sources, primarily wood. Solar thermal units are cost-competitive in all municipalities, and their deployment should be fostered by information campaigns. Heat pumps and building refurbishment are not competitive; thus, economic incentives are essential, especially for urban municipalities. In rural municipalities, wood is cost-competitive, and community-based initiatives are likely to be most successful. Thus, the paper shows that energy strategies should be spatially differentiated. The suggested approach can be transferred to other regions and spatial scales