Distributional Equivalence and Structure Learning for Bow-free Acyclic Path Diagrams

We consider the problem of structure learning for bow-free acyclic path diagrams (BAPs). BAPs can be viewed as a generalization of linear Gaussian DAG models that allow for certain hidden variables. We present a first method for this problem using a greedy score-based search algorithm. We also prove some necessary and some sufficient conditions for distributional equivalence of BAPs which are used in an algorithmic ap- proach to compute (nearly) equivalent model structures. This allows us to infer lower bounds of causal effects. We also present applications to real and simulated datasets using our publicly available R-package

Arthritis gene therapy's first death

In July 2007 a subject died while enrolled in an arthritis gene therapy trial. The study was placed on clinical hold while the circumstances surrounding this tragedy were investigated. Early in December 2007 the Food and Drug Administration removed the clinical hold, allowing the study to resume with minor changes to the protocol. In the present article we collate the information we were able to obtain about this clinical trial and discuss it in the wider context of arthritis gene therapy

Spectral Variations of Of?p Oblique Magnetic Rotator Candidates in the Magellanic Clouds

Optical spectroscopic monitoring has been conducted of two O stars in the Small and one in the Large Magellanic Cloud, the spectral characteristics of which place them in the Of?p category, which has been established in the Galaxy to consist of oblique magnetic rotators. All of these Magellanic stars show systematic spectral variations typical of the Of?p class, further strengthening their magnetic candidacy to the point of virtual certainty. The spectral variations are related to photometric variations derived from OGLE data by Naze et al. (2015) in a parallel study, which yields rotational periods for two of them. Now circular spectropolarimetry is required to measure their fields, and ultraviolet spectroscopy to further characterize their low-metallicity, magnetically confined winds, in support of hydrodynamical analyses.Comment: 18 pages, 6 figures, accepted for publication by A

Potential Aboriginal-Occupation-Induced Dune Activity, Elbow Sand Hills, Northern Great Plains, Canada

Geomorphological and archeological evidence indicates potential linkages between Plains aboriginal occupation and dune activity in the Elbow Sand Hills of southern Saskatchewan, Canada. Vegetation encroachment has rapidly outpaced migration of an active dune complex over the last 65 years. Optical ages of stabilized dune remnants indicate that dune activity predates Euro-Canadian settlement (ca. AD 1900). Early Euro-Canadian explorers observed local occupation and exploitation of the sand hills by aboriginal groups for herding and impounding bison. Mapping of archeological sites in relation to physiography reveals that sand dunes, in close proximity to permanent water resources, were preferred areas of occupation. Collectively, these results support the hypothesis that aboriginal occupation disturbance may have perpetuated dune activity in the Elbow Sand Hills until the late 19th century, and that Euro-Canadian settlement and land use emphasizing conservation may have encouraged recent stabilization. We propose that similar aboriginal occupation disturbances may have been responsible for perpetuating dune activity in other dune fields in the Great Plains. To this end, climatic variability should not be considered exclusive of other drivers of dune activity in semivegetated inland dune fields of the Great Plains

Sampling Bias Overestimates Climate Change Impacts on Forest Growth in the Southwestern United States

Climate−tree growth relationships recorded in annual growth rings have recently been the basis for projecting climate change impacts on forests. However, most trees and sample sites represented in the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB) were chosen to maximize climate signal and are characterized by marginal growing conditions not representative of the larger forest ecosystem. We evaluate the magnitude of this potential bias using a spatially unbiased tree-ring network collected by the USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. We show that U.S. Southwest ITRDB samples overestimate regional forest climate sensitivity by 41–59%, because ITRDB trees were sampled at warmer and drier locations, both at the macro- and micro-site scale, and are systematically older compared to the FIA collection. Although there are uncertainties associated with our statistical approach, projection based on representative FIA samples suggests 29% less of a climate change-induced growth decrease compared to projection based on climate-sensitive ITRDB samples