Minimax and the Value of Information

In his discussion of minimax decision rules, Savage (1954, p. 170) presents an example purporting to show that minimax applied to negative expected utility (referred to by Savage as 'negative income') is an inadequate decision criterion for statistics; he suggests the application of a minimax regret rule instead. The crux of Savage's objection is the possibility that a decision maker would choose to ignore even 'extensive' information. More recently, Parmigiani (1992) has suggested that minimax regret suffers from the same flaw. He demonstrates the existence of 'relevant' experiments that a minimax regret agent would never pay a positive cost to observe. On closer inspection, I find that minimax regret is more resilient to this critique than would first appear. In particular, there are cases where no experiment has any value to an agent employing the minimax negative income rule, while we may always devise a hypothetical experiment that a minimax regret agent would pay for. The force of Parmigiani's critique is further blunted by the observation that 'relevant' experiments exist for which a Bayesian agent would never pay. I conclude by discussing the notion of pessimism in the context of minimax decision rules.NYU Stern School of Business; Department of Information, Operations and Management SciencesStatistics Working Papers Serie

Why word of mouth works better for niche products and ideas

Many products are more helpful if our friends use them too. Word of mouth helps us coordinate our choices, writes Evan Sadler

Games on Endogenous Networks

We study network games in which players both create spillovers for one another and choose with whom to associate. The endogenous outcomes include both the strategic actions (e.g., effort levels) and the network in which spillovers occur. We introduce a framework and two solution concepts that extend standard approaches -- Nash equilibrium in actions and pairwise (Nash) stability in links. Our main results show that under suitable monotonicity assumptions on incentives, stable networks take simple forms. Our central conditions concern whether actions and links are strategic complements or substitutes, as well as whether links create positive or negative payoff spillovers. We apply our model to understand the consequences of competition for status, to microfound matching models that assume clique formation, and to interpret empirical findings that highlight unintended consequences of group design

Minimax and the Value of Information

In his discussion of minimax decision rules, Savage (1954, p. 170) presents an example purporting to show that minimax applied to negative expected utility (referred to by Savage as 'negative income') is an inadequate decision criterion for statistics; he suggests the application of a minimax regret rule instead. The crux of Savage's objection is the possibility that a decision maker would choose to ignore even 'extensive' information. More recently, Parmigiani (1992) has suggested that minimax regret suffers from the same flaw. He demonstrates the existence of 'relevant' experiments that a minimax regret agent would never pay a positive cost to observe. On closer inspection, I find that minimax regret is more resilient to this critique than would first appear. In particular, there are cases where no experiment has any value to an agent employing the minimax negative income rule, while we may always devise a hypothetical experiment that a minimax regret agent would pay for. The force of Parmigiani's critique is further blunted by the observation that 'relevant' experiments exist for which a Bayesian agent would never pay. I conclude by discussing the notion of pessimism in the context of minimax decision rules.NYU Stern School of Business; Department of Information, Operations and Management SciencesStatistics Working Papers Serie

A comparative analysis of place branding in Michigan and Ontario

Place branding has increasingly been adopted as a municipal initiative to change the trajectory of local economic development. Specifically, local municipalities and communities have used place branding not only as a response to the influence of globalization and neo-liberalism, but also economic challenges and restructuring. Like any other initiative, the ultimate goal is to enhance the economic and social well-being of local jurisdictions. Although a popular strategy, it is not clear if and how locally specific factors mediate the process. By comparing two cross-border geographical areas, this study attempts to identify how regional variability in the manifestation of politicaleconomic forces, as well as geographical influences, affects the use of place branding at local scales. Every municipality in Michigan (n = 1774) and Ontario (n = 414) was systematically examined for the presence and message of local place brands as presented through logos and slogans. The comparative analysis demonstrated that Ontario’s municipalities utilized place branding to a greater extent, and that the dominant messages differ by region. Further, this analysis shows that – beyond political differences – geographical context appears to have an effect on both local place branding usage and message

Is it sound poilcy or fast policy? Practitioner’s perspectives on the role of place branding local economic development.

In response to neoliberal policies and globalization pressures over the past three decades, urban governments in advanced economies have, with near-unanimity, adopted place branding as an approach to foster local economic growth. Framed as an outcome of multilevel neoliberal policymaking and local entrepreneurial governance, place branding has been adopted by urban places at all scales and geographic contexts with little regard for its efficacy. It is unclear, however, whether place branding represents a substantive approach, or is merely an emerging example of a neoliberal scripting. In many regards, the debate surrounding place branding is similar to the discourse on the Creative Class a decade ago. Consequently, uncertainty exists regarding whether place branding reflects practical and responsible urban governance or a superficial, fast policy with limited potential to foster local development. To date, little is known about how practitioners perceive place branding as a policy tool in the context of economic development. This study examines the perceptions of economic development practitioners regarding how place branding is being developed and implemented as a policy tool. The analysis is based on in-depth interviews with economic development practitioners (n = 25) from a wide range of municipalities in Ontario. Findings of this study indicate that while opportunity exists for place branding to represent in-depth and extensive local development policy, it is more generally an urban development script for creating a sense of place and fostering local economic development. Additionally, the majority of place branding policy represents superficial policy, emphasizing hegemonic approaches. Place branding can therefore be explained as an example of fast policy

The role of place branding in local and regional economic development: bridging the gap between policy and practicality

Place branding has become an increasingly integral part of local and regional economic development strategies in the global competition for business investment. Professional and academic understanding remains limited, however, regarding whether place branding can be classified as a ‘high-road’ policy with substantive and effective merits or a ‘low-road’ policy that is generally inefficient and ineffective at fostering sustainable economic growth. Through the context of business attraction, this study examines whether place branding represents ‘high-road’ policy by comparing what economic development practitioners are doing to create and support their brands against the needs and desires of businesses considering relocation. The research goal is achieved through a series of in-depth interviews with economic development practitioners (n = 25) and private-sector site selectors (n = 10) in the province of Ontario, Canada. Gaps between policy and practicality are identified by comparing the responses of the two groups. Results demonstrate that place branding has the potential to be ‘high-road’ policy given its utility in business attraction. In its current implementation, however, place branding remains better described as a ‘low-road’ policy, as it is not being used efficiently. Several gaps in place-branding policy are identified, including an overreliance on visual identities and narratives, poor communication of the brand information, and overemphasis on presenting quality of life and affordability. These gaps present possible areas of ineffectiveness that can limit the ability of a place brand to attract investment, but provide areas of future policy improvements, thus enabling place branding to shift from ‘low road’ to ‘high road’

Factor XI/ADAMTS13 complexes are quantitatively insignificant in human plasma

Reportedly, complexes between factor XI and ADAMTS13 are detected with a commercial ADAMTS13/FXI ELISA kit in plasma and are decreased in thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP). Using this kit, control and TTP patient plasma contained varying amounts of signal (25-670% of a reference plasma) but no signal was observed for mixtures of recombinant enzymes, suggesting little interaction. ADAMTS13/FXI complexes were undetectable by immunoprecipitation or gel filtration chromatography in control plasma or mixtures of recombinant proteins. These results suggest that ADAMTS13/FXI complexes are insignificant in plasma and unlikely to affect the function of either protein during normal hemostasis or in TTP