Detailed Abundances of Two Very Metal-Poor Stars in Dwarf Galaxies

The most metal-poor stars in dwarf spheroidal galaxies (dSphs) can show the nucleosynthetic patterns of one or a few supernovae (SNe). These SNe could have zero metallicity, making metal-poor dSph stars the closest surviving links to Population III stars. Metal-poor dSph stars also help to reveal the formation mechanism of the Milky Way (MW) halo. We present the detailed abundances from Keck/HIRES spectroscopy for two very metal-poor stars in two MW dSphs. One star, in the Sculptor dSph, has [Fe I/H] = -2.40. The other star, in the Ursa Minor dSph, has [Fe I/H] = -3.16. Both stars fall in the previously discovered low-metallicity, high-[α/Fe] plateau. Most abundance ratios of very metal-poor stars in these two dSphs are largely consistent with very metal-poor halo stars. However, the abundances of Na and some r-process elements lie at the lower end of the envelope defined by inner halo stars of similar metallicity. We propose that the metallicity dependence of SN yields is the cause. The earliest SNe in low-mass dSphs have less gas to pollute than the earliest SNe in massive halo progenitors. As a result, dSph stars at –3 < [Fe/H] < –2 sample SNe with [Fe/H] Lt –3, whereas halo stars in the same metallicity range sample SNe with [Fe/H] ~ –3. Consequently, enhancements in [Na/Fe] and [r/Fe] were deferred to higher metallicity in dSphs than in the progenitors of the inner halo

Prediction of infectious disease epidemics via weighted density ensembles

Accurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease dynamics can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission. A great variety of models have been developed for this task, using different model structures, covariates, and targets for prediction. Experience has shown that the performance of these models varies; some tend to do better or worse in different seasons or at different points within a season. Ensemble methods combine multiple models to obtain a single prediction that leverages the strengths of each model. We considered a range of ensemble methods that each form a predictive density for a target of interest as a weighted sum of the predictive densities from component models. In the simplest case, equal weight is assigned to each component model; in the most complex case, the weights vary with the region, prediction target, week of the season when the predictions are made, a measure of component model uncertainty, and recent observations of disease incidence. We applied these methods to predict measures of influenza season timing and severity in the United States, both at the national and regional levels, using three component models. We trained the models on retrospective predictions from 14 seasons (1997/1998 - 2010/2011) and evaluated each model's prospective, out-of-sample performance in the five subsequent influenza seasons. In this test phase, the ensemble methods showed overall performance that was similar to the best of the component models, but offered more consistent performance across seasons than the component models. Ensemble methods offer the potential to deliver more reliable predictions to public health decision makers.Comment: 20 pages, 6 figure

The Peculiar Chemical Inventory of NGC 2419: an Extreme Outer Halo "Globular Cluster"

NGC 2419 is a massive outer halo Galactic globular cluster (GC) whose stars have previously been shown to have somewhat peculiar abundance patterns. We have observed seven luminous giants that are members of NGC 2419 with Keck/HIRES at reasonable signal-to-noise ratio. One of these giants is very peculiar, with an extremely low [Mg/Fe] and high [K/Fe] but normal abundances of most other elements. The abundance pattern does not match the nucleosynthetic yields of any supernova model. The other six stars show abundance ratios typical of inner halo Galactic GCs, represented here by a sample of giants in the nearby GC M30. Although our measurements show that NGC 2419 is unusual in some respects, its bulk properties do not provide compelling evidence for a difference between inner and outer halo GCs

Spectroscopic Confirmation of the Dwarf Galaxies Hydra II and Pisces II and the Globular Cluster Laevens 1

We present Keck/DEIMOS spectroscopy of stars in the recently discovered Milky Way satellites Hydra II, Pisces II, and Laevens 1. We measured a velocity dispersion of 5.4 (+3.6 -2.4) km/s for Pisces II, but we did not resolve the velocity dispersions of Hydra II or Laevens 1. We marginally resolved the metallicity dispersions of Hydra II and Pisces II but not Laevens 1. Furthermore, Hydra II and Pisces II obey the luminosity-metallicity relation for Milky Way dwarf galaxies ( = -2.02 +/- 0.08 and -2.45 +/- 0.07, respectively), whereas Laevens 1 does not ( = -1.68 +/- 0.05). The kinematic and chemical properties suggest that Hydra II and Pisces II are dwarf galaxies, and Laevens 1 is a globular cluster. We determined that two of the previously observed blue stars near the center of Laevens 1 are not members of the cluster. A third blue star has ambiguous membership. Hydra II has a radial velocity = 303.1 +/- 1.4 km/s, similar to the leading arm of the Magellanic stream. The mass-to-light ratio for Pisces II is 370 (+310 -240) M_sun/L_sun. It is not among the most dark matter-dominated dwarf galaxies, but it is still worthy of inclusion in the search for gamma rays from dark matter self-annihilation.Comment: Accepted to ApJ. v2 has been revised in response to the referee's repor