Spatial-temporal forecasting the sunspot diagram

We attempt to forecast the Sun's sunspot butterfly diagram in both space (i.e. in latitude) and time, instead of the usual one-dimensional time series forecasts prevalent in the scientific literature. We use a prediction method based on the non-linear embedding of data series in high dimensions. We use this method to forecast both in latitude (space) and in time, using a full spatial-temporal series of the sunspot diagram from 1874 to 2015. The analysis of the results shows that it is indeed possible to reconstruct the overall shape and amplitude of the spatial-temporal pattern of sunspots, but that the method in its current form does not have real predictive power. We also apply a metric called structural similarity to compare the forecasted and the observed butterfly cycles, showing that this metric can be a useful addition to the usual root mean square error metric when analysing the efficiency of different prediction methods

The influence of noise on scalings for in-out intermittency

We study the effects of noise on a recently discovered form of intermittency, referred to as in-out intermittency. This type of intermittency, which reduces to on-off in systems with a skew product structure, has been found in the dynamics of maps, ODE and PDE simulations that have symmetries. It shows itself in the form of trajectories that spend a long time near a symmetric state interspersed with short bursts away from symmetry. In contrast to on-off intermittency, there are clearly distinct mechanisms of approach towards and away from the symmetric state, and this needs to be taken into account in order to properly model the long time statistics. We do this by using a diffusion-type equation with delay integral boundary condition. This model is validated by considering the statistics of a two-dimensional map with and without the addition of noise.Comment: Submitted to Physical Review E, also available at http://www.eurico.web.co

Non-normal parameter blowout bifurcation: an example in a truncated mean field dynamo model

We examine global dynamics and bifurcations occurring in a truncated model of a stellar mean field dynamo. This model has symmetry-forced invariant subspaces for the dynamics and we find examples of transient type I intermittency and blowout bifurcations to transient on-off intermittency, involving laminar phases in the invariant submanifold. In particular, our model provides examples of blowout bifurcations that occur on varying a non-normal parameter; that is, the parameter varies the dynamics within the invariant subspace at the same time as the dynamics normal to it. As a consequence of this we find that the Lyapunov exponents do not vary smoothly and the blowout bifurcation occurs over a range of parameter values rather than a point in the parameter space.Comment: Full paper with figures, also available on the web page http://www.maths.qmw.ac.uk/~eoc. Physical Review E, accepte

The influence of density stratification and multiple nonlinearities on solar torsional oscillations

Analyses of recent helioseismic data have produced ample evidence for substantial dynamical variation of the differential rotation within the solar convection zone. Given the inevitable difficulties in resolving the precise nature of variations at deeper layers, much effort has recently gone into determining theoretically the expected modes of behaviour, using nonlinear dynamo models. Two important limitations of these models are that they have so far included only one form of nonlinearity, and as yet they have not taken into account the density stratification in the solar convection zone. Here we address both of these issues by studying the effects of including density stratification, as well as including an alpha--quenching nonlinearity in addition to the previously studied effects of the Lorentz force on the differential rotation. We find that observationally important features found in the earlier uniform density models remain qualitatively unchanged, although there are quantitative differences. This is important as it provides more realistic theoretical predictions to be compared with and guide observations, especially in the deeper regions where the uncertainties in the inversions are larger. However the presence of an effective alpha-quenching nonlinearity significantly reduces the amplitudes of the oscillations.Comment: 8 pages, 13 figures; to appear in Astronomy and Astrophysic