AN ECONOMIC MODELLING APPROACH FOR VULNERABILITY ASSESMENT IN IRRIGATION FARMS IN SPAIN

Farm Management,

An economic modelling approach for vulnerability assesment in irrigation farms in Spain

In the last years, vulnerability assessment has emerged as a need for policy making instead of being a pure academic exercise (Hinkel, 2010). In the current context of changing climate, increasing water scarcity threatens economic activities in many arid or semi-arid regions of the World. Climate change (CC) science and policy debates have traditionally focused on CC mitigation and impact assessment (Krysanova et al., 2010). However, even if mitigation policies are successfully enforced some climate change is still expected. Then, adaptation is strongly necessary and, for that, improved knowledge on vulnerability and adaptive capacity is required

Assessment of Socio-Economic and Climate Change Effects on Water Resources and Agriculture in Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries. MEDPRO Technical Paper No. 28/March 2013

This study aims at assessing the socio-economic and environmental effects of different societal and human development scenarios and climate change in the water-scarce southern and eastern Mediterranean. The study develops a two-stage modelling methodology that includes an econometric analysis for the southern and eastern Mediterranean region as a whole and a detailed, integrated socioecological assessment focusing on Jordan, Syria and Morocco. The results show that water resources will be under increasing stress in future years. In spite of country differences, a future path of sustainable development is possible in the region. Water withdrawals could decrease, preserving renewable water resources and reversing the negative effects on agricultural production and rural society. This, however, requires a combination across the region of technical, managerial, economic, social and institutional changes that together foster a substantive structural change. A balanced implementation of water supply-enhancing and demand-management measures along with improved governance are key to attaining a cost-effective sustainable future in which economic growth, a population increase and trade expansion are compatible with the conservation of water resources

Perspectives on climate change and human development in the Mediterranean agriculture

The Mediterranean region is one of the world's climate change hotspots. Future climate projections envisage dramatic implications for the agricultural and water sectors that will endanger economic development and lead to natural resources degradation and social instability

Analysing trade-offs between food production and ecosystem services in tropical forests of lowland Bolivia

The expansion of agricultural land is responsible for most tropical deforestation. Historically, smallholder farming and shifting cultivation has been reported as the main agent of deforestation. However, the increasing global demand for food in recent years has greatly boosted the development of medium and large-scale commercial agriculture which is nowadays causing the majority of tropical forest cover loss, particularly in Latin America

Water, agriculture and ecosystem services in climate change vulnerable agricultural regions of Spain and Jordan

Irrigated agricultural landscapes generate a valuable set of ecosystem services, which are threatened by water scarcity in many aridand semi‐arid regions of the world. In the Mediterranean region, climate change is expected to decrease water availability through reduced precipitation and more frequent drought spells. At the same time, climate change, demographic and economic development and an agricultural sector highly dependent on irrigation, will raise water demand, increasing experienced water scarcity and affecting the provision of ecosystem services from water resources and agro-ecosystems. In this context, policy makers face the challenge of balancing the provision of different ecosystem services, including agricultural income and production and also water ecosystem protection

A methodological approach for prioritizing water reuse projects in agricultural irrigation: a case study in Spain

Water reuse is a strategic priority for Water Authorities in Europe to reduce the pressure on water resources. However, its implementation is lagging behind expectations largely due to financial concerns. In this context, there is a special interest to identify in which specific Wastewater Treatment Plants it would be interesting to add a Water Regeneration Plant, taking account of potential existing clients in the vicinity and the implied costs and benefits. This paper proposes a methodology to quantify the infrastructure and operation costs of project implementation, and the benefits generated by the additional water offer. An algorithm designs the distribution network, allowing for a quick infrastructure cost analysis. The methodology is applied to the Upper Guadiana in Central Spain, where irrigation led to the overexploitation of the local aquifers and the subsequent restrictions on water use. Taking account of the existing Wastewater Treatment Plants, candidate reuse projects are classified according to their benefit/cost ratio, showing large differences according to the location and potential use of the regenerated water. The methodology allows for a quick assessment of the costs and benefits implied in different reuse projects and scenarios, providing science-based evidence to support water policy decisions

Analysis of current patterns of deforestation in Latin America and the Caribbean

Climate change is a major threat to human and natural systems, and particularly to the functionality of ecosystems and the services they provide (IPCC, 2014). Tropical deforestation contributes to 12?14% of global greenhouse gas emissions (Harris et al., 2014). Deforestation also reduces the capacity of forests as key above ground sinks of carbon, and has considerable effects upon biodiversity (Peres et al., 2010 and Pereira et al., 2012). Forest conservation and management offers a strategy for climate change mitigation through restoration of the capacity of forest carbon sequestration

Analyzing climate change adaptation in the agriculture and water sectors: screening risks and opportunities.

As part of the Mediterranean area, the Guadiana basin in Spain is particularly exposed to increasing water stress due to climate change. Future warmer and drier climate will have negative implications for the sustainability of water resources and irrigation agriculture, the main socio- economic sector in the region. This paper illustrates a systematic analysis of climate change impacts and adaptation in the Guadiana basin based on a two-stage modeling approach. First, an integrated hydro-economic modeling framework was used to simulate the potential effects of regional climate change scenarios for the period 2000-2069. Second, a participatory multi-criteria technique, namely the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), was applied to rank potential adaptation measures based on agreed criteria. Results show that, in the middle-long run and under severe climate change, reduced water availability, lower crop yields and increased irrigation demands might lead to water shortages, crop failure, and up to ten percent of income losses to irrigators. AHP results show how private farming adaptation measures, including improving irrigation efficiency and adjusting crop varieties, are preferred to public adaptation measures, such as building new dams. The integrated quantitative and qualitative methodology used in this research can be considered a socially-based valuable tool to support adaptation decision-making