Trends in survival of older care home residents in England: A 10-year multi-cohort study

Increases in longevity combined with a policy emphasis on caring for older people in their own homes could have widened or narrowed the survival gap between care home and community-dwelling resident older people. Knowledge of pre-COVID-19 trends in this gap is needed to assess the longer-term impacts of the pandemic. We provide evidence for England on recent trends in 1, 2 and 3-year mortality amongst care home residents aged 65+ compared with similar community-dwelling residents. We use the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, a nationally representative primary care database. For each of the ten years from 2006 to 2015, care home and community-dwelling residents aged 65+ were identified and matched in the ratio 1:3, according to age, gender, area deprivation and region. Cox survival analyses were used to estimate mortality risks for care home residents in comparison with similar community-dwelling people, adjusting for age, gender, area deprivation and region. The study sample consisted of ten overlapping cohorts averaging 5495 care home residents per cohort. Adjusted mortality risks increased over the study period for care home residents while decreasing slightly for matched community-dwelling residents. The relative risks (RRs) of mortality associated with care home residence were higher for younger ages and shorter follow-up periods, in all years. Over the decade, the RRs increased, most at younger ages and for shorter follow-up periods (e.g. for the age group 65-74 years, 1-year average RR increased by 61% from 5.4 to 8.8, while for those aged 85-94 years and over, 3-year RR increased by 22% from 1.3 to 1.6). Thus the survival gap between older care home and community-dwelling residents has been widening, especially at younger ages. In due course, it will be possible to establish to what extent the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in further growth in this gap

Trends in survival of older care home residents in England: A 10-year multi-cohort study

Increases in longevity combined with a policy emphasis on caring for older people in their own homes could have widened or narrowed the survival gap between care home and community-dwelling resident older people. Knowledge of pre-COVID-19 trends in this gap is needed to assess the longer-term impacts of the pandemic. We provide evidence for England on recent trends in 1, 2 and 3-year mortality amongst care home residents aged 65+ compared with similar community-dwelling residents. We use the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, a nationally representative primary care database. For each of the ten years from 2006 to 2015, care home and community-dwelling residents aged 65+ were identified and matched in the ratio 1:3, according to age, gender, area deprivation and region. Cox survival analyses were used to estimate mortality risks for care home residents in comparison with similar community-dwelling people, adjusting for age, gender, area deprivation and region. The study sample consisted of ten overlapping cohorts averaging 5495 care home residents per cohort. Adjusted mortality risks increased over the study period for care home residents while decreasing slightly for matched community-dwelling residents. The relative risks (RRs) of mortality associated with care home residence were higher for younger ages and shorter follow-up periods, in all years. Over the decade, the RRs increased, most at younger ages and for shorter follow-up periods (e.g. for the age group 65–74 years, 1-year average RR increased by 61% from 5.4 to 8.8, while for those aged 85–94 years and over, 3-year RR increased by 22% from 1.3 to 1.6). Thus the survival gap between older care home and community-dwelling residents has been widening, especially at younger ages. In due course, it will be possible to establish to what extent the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in further growth in this gap

Market concentration, supply, quality and prices paid by local authorities in the English care home market.

We investigate the impact of exogenous local conditions which favor high market concentration on supply, price and quality in local markets for care homes for older people in England. We extend the existing literature in: (i) considering supply capacity as a market outcome alongside price and quality; (ii) taking account of the chain structure of care home supply and differences between the nursing home and residential care home sectors; (iii) using an econometric approach based on reduced form relationships that treats market concentration as a jointly determined outcome of a complex market. We find that areas susceptible to a high degree of market concentration tend to have greatly restricted supply of care home places and (to a lesser extent) a higher average public cost, than areas susceptible to low degree of market concentration. There is no significant evidence that conditions favoring high market concentration affect average care home quality

Cohort study of intervened functionally univentricular heart in England and Wales (2000-2018)

Objective: Given the paucity of long-term outcome data for complex congenital heart disease (CHD), we aimed to describe the treatment pathways and survival for patients who started interventions for functionally univentricular heart (FUH) conditions, excluding hypoplastic left heart syndrome. // Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study using all procedure records from the National Congenital Heart Diseases Audit for children born in 2000–2018. The primary outcome was mortality, ascertained from the Office for National Statistics in 2020. // Results: Of 53 615 patients, 1557 had FUH: 55.9% were boys and 67.4% were of White ethnic groups. The largest diagnostic categories were tricuspid atresia (28.9%), double inlet left ventricle (21.0%) and unbalanced atrioventricular septal defect (AVSD) (15.2%). The ages at staged surgery were: initial palliation 11.5 (IQR 5.5–43.5) days, cavopulmonary shunt 9.2 (IQR 6.0–17.1) months and Fontan 56.2 (IQR 45.5–70.3) months. The median follow-up time was 10.8 (IQR 7.0–14.9) years and the 1, 5 and 10-year survival rates after initial palliation were 83.6% (95% CI 81.7% to 85.4%), 79.4% (95% CI 77.3% to 81.4%) and 77.2% (95% CI 75.0% to 79.2%), respectively. Higher hazards were present for unbalanced AVSD HR 2.75 (95% CI 1.82 to 4.17), atrial isomerism HR 1.75 (95% CI 1.14 to 2.70) and low weight HR 1.65 (95% CI 1.13 to 2.41), critical illness HR 2.30 (95% CI 1.67 to 3.18) or acquired comorbidities HR 2.71 (95% CI 1.82 to 4.04) at initial palliation. // Conclusion: Although treatment pathways for FUH are complex and variable, nearly 8 out of 10 children survived to 10 years. Longer-term analyses of outcome based on diagnosis (rather than procedure) can inform parents, patients and clinicians, driving practice improvements for complex CHD

Linkage of National Congenital Heart Disease Audit data to hospital, critical care and mortality national data sets to enable research focused on quality improvement

Objectives To link five national data sets (three registries, two administrative) and create longitudinal healthcare trajectories for patients with congenital heart disease (CHD), describing the quality and the summary statistics of the linked data set. Design Bespoke linkage of record-level patient identifiers across five national data sets. Generation of spells of care defined as periods of time-overlapping events across the data sets. Setting National Congenital Heart Disease Audit (NCHDA) procedures in public (National Health Service; NHS) hospitals in England and Wales, paediatric and adult intensive care data sets (Paediatric Intensive Care Audit Network; PICANet and the Case Mix Programme from the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre; ICNARC-CMP), administrative hospital episodes (hospital episode statistics; HES inpatient, outpatient, accident and emergency; A&E) and mortality registry data. Participants Patients with any CHD procedure recorded in NCHDA between April 2000 and March 2017 from public hospitals. Primary and secondary outcome measures Primary: number of linked records, number of unique patients and number of generated spells of care. Secondary: quality and completeness of linkage. Results There were 143 862 records in NCHDA relating to 96 041 unique patients. We identified 65 797 linked PICANet patient admissions, 4664 linked ICNARC-CMP admissions and over 6 million linked HES episodes of care (1.1M inpatient, 4.7M outpatient). The linked data set had 4 908 153 spells of care after quality checks, with a median (IQR) of 3.4 (1.8–6.3) spells per patient-year. Where linkage was feasible (in terms of year and centre), 95.6% surgical procedure records were linked to a corresponding HES record, 93.9% paediatric (cardiac) surgery procedure records to a corresponding PICANet admission and 76.8% adult surgery procedure records to a corresponding ICNARC-CMP record. Conclusions We successfully linked four national data sets to the core data set of all CHD procedures performed between 2000 and 2017. This will enable a much richer analysis of longitudinal patient journeys and outcomes. We hope that our detailed description of the linkage process will be useful to others looking to link national data sets to address important research priorities