Services policy reform and economic growth in transition economies, 1990-2004

Major changes have occurred in the structure of former centrally planned economies, including a sharp rise in the share of services in GDP, employment, and international transactions. However, large differences exist across transition economies with respect to services intensity and services policy reforms. The authors find that reforms in policies toward financial and infrastructure services, including telecommunications, power, and transport, are highly correlated with inward foreign direct investment. Controlling for regressors commonly used in the growth literature, they find that measures of services policy reform are statistically significant explanatory variables for the post-1990 economic performance of transition economies. These findings suggest services policies should be considered more generally in empirical analyses of economic growth

Services policies in transition economies : on the European Union and the World Trade Organization as commitment mechanisms

The authors analyze the extent to which the EU-15 and 16 transition economies used the WTO General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) to commit to service sector policy reforms. They compare GATS commitments with the evolution of actual policy stances over time. While there is substantial variance across transition economies on both actual policies and GATS commitments, the authors find an inverse relationship between the depth of GATS commitments and the"quality"of actual services policies as assessed by the private sector. In part this can be explained by the fact that the prospect of EU accession makes GATS less relevant as a commitment device for a subset of transition economies. But for many of the non-EU accession candidates, the WTO seems to be a weak commitment device. One explanation is that the small size of the markets concerned generates weak external enforcement incentives. The authors'findings suggest greater collective investment by WTO members in monitoring and the need for transparency to increase the benefits of WTO membership to small countries.Trade and Services,Trade Law,World Trade Organization,Trade and Regional Integration,Free Trade

The fiscal costs of financial instability revisited

This paper conducts a comprehensive analysis of the fiscal costs of financial instability (defined as major asset price changes and including, as extreme cases, financial crises). The study identifies three channels to fiscal accounts: 1) revenue effects on capital gains, asset turnover and consumption tax, 2) bailout costs as asset price declines undermine balance sheets of companies/banks, and 3) second-round effects from asset prices changes via the real economy and via debt service costs. A panel analysis and case studies show that episodes of financial instability increase the variability of fiscal balances. Moreover, fiscal costs are often very large and much larger than assumed in the literature so far with public debt rising by up to 50% of GDP during such episodes. These fiscal effects can also serve as a, so far under-emphasised, rationale for the deficit and debt targets in the EU?s Maastricht Treaty and Stability and Growth Pact. JEL Classification: H3, H6, E6asset prices, deficits, financial crisis, financial stability, Fiscal policies

Asset prices and fiscal balances

The paper argues that there are important links between asset prices and public finances which can strongly affect the variability of fiscal balances. Asset prices affect fiscal balances via capital gains and turnover related taxes, and via wealth effects on consumption and indirect taxes. The fiscal costs of asset price changes can be higher if government can be held liable for balance sheet losses from an asset price downturn. An empirical study finds significant effects of house and/or stock prices on revenue in a majority of the 17 OECD countries and revenue categories examined. On average, a 10-percent change in real estate and stock prices has a similar effect on the fiscal balance as a 1-percent change in output, although effects differ considerably across countries. By 2001-2002, some countries' fiscal balances seem upward biased, due to positive effects from earlier asset price booms. JEL Classification: H3, H6, E6, G1

Der Klang der Lyrik: Zur Konzeptualisierung von Sprecher und Stimme, auch für die computationelle Analyse

Das Forschungsprojekt »textklang«: Mixed-Methods-Analyse von Lyrik in Text und Ton (gefördert durch das Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung) zielt auf die systematische und diachrone Untersuchung der Beziehung zwischen literarischen Texten, insbesondere Lyrik der Romantik, und ihrer lautsprachlichen Realisierung bei der Rezitation oder der musikalischen Aufführung. Die Vorstellungen von Mündlichkeit, Klang und Stimme, die im Besonderen mit der Lyrik verbunden sind, werden empirisch untersucht und auch im Sinne moderner Ansätze der Lyrikanalyse theoretisiert. Besondere Bedeutung kommt dabei dem experimentellen Ansatz der Sprachsynthese zu, also der computationellen Möglichkeit, eine menschliche Sprechstimme künstlich herzustellen; er ermöglicht es, eine idealtypische Realisierung des Textes zu ermitteln und menschliche Realisierungen auf ihre ästhetische Besonderheit hin zu testen.The research project »text sound«: mixed-methods-analysis of lyric poetry in text and tonal sound (funded by the Federal Ministry for Education and Research, BMBF) aims to undertake a systematic and diachronic investigation of the relationship between literary texts, especially lyric poetry from the Romantic period, and their phonetic realisation in recitations or musical performances. Ideas of orality, sound and voice, which are particularly associated with poetry, are investigated empirically and also theorised in the line with modern approaches to the analysis of lyric poetry. Of particular importance is the experimental approach of speech synthesis, i.e. using computers to artificially produce a human sounding voice; this approach makes it possible to explore an ideal-typical realisation of the text and to test the aesthetic peculiarity of human realisations

Finance and Growth: A Survey of the Theoretical and Empirical Literature

This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on links between domestic financial development and economic growth. It starts with the pioneers in this field and then classifies two main schools favouring liberal financial regimes. First McKinnon and Shaw advocated financial liberalization in a period of widespread government intervention in credit markets. After that a period of criticism of free market regimes followed, partly based on unsuccessful policies. The literature on financial development and endogenous growth pushed the discussion back into the direction initially advocated by McKinnon and Shaw. We review a huge body of empirical literature, which generally finds positive associations between domestic financial development and economic growth. The evidence suggests, however, enormous heterogeneity across countries, regions, financial factors, and directions of causality.Financial Liberalization; Financial Development; Endogenous Growth

Budgetary risks from real estate and stock markets

"Fiscal revenues and government expenditures are affected by asset price changes in ways that are not accounted for by standard cyclical-adjustment methods. Revenues are influenced by capital gains and turnover taxation, as well as by output changes determined by the effect of wealth changes on consumption and investment. And outlays may also be affected if collapsing asset prices prompt fiscal authorities to bail out private-sector balance sheet problems. We point out that these effects can be asymmetric, resulting in deficit and debt biases, and we find support for this phenomenon in panel estimates for a sample of 20 industrialized countries over 1982-2002. The estimated coefficients indicate that 30-40% of the dramatic early 1990s fiscal balance deteriorations in the UK and Sweden was due to asset price effects, with a particularly relevant role for real estate price changes. If financial markets experience boom-bust cycles, prudent management of fiscal windfalls in boom phases is needed to ensure fiscal and financial sustainability in bust phases, and budgetary rules may need to account explicitly for a separate role of asset price-related effects." Copyright � Blackwell Publishing 2004.

Services Policies in Transition Economies: On the EU and WTO as Commitment Mechanisms

We analyze the extent to which the EU-15 and 16 transition economies used the WTO General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) to commit to service sector policy reforms. GATS commitments are compared with the evolution of actual policy stances over time. While there is substantial variance across transition economies on both actual policies and GATS commitments, we find an inverse relationship between the depth of GATS commitments and the 'quality' of actual services policies as assessed by the private sector. In part this can be explained by the fact that the prospect of EU accession makes GATS less relevant as a commitment device for a subset of transition economies. However, for many of the non-EU accession candidates the WTO seems to be a weak commitment device. One explanation is that the small size of the markets concerned generates weak external enforcement incentives. Our findings suggest greater collective investment by WTO members in monitoring and transparency is needed to increase the benefits of WTO membership to small countries.accession; EU; services liberalization; trade agreements; WTO transition economies