Overdiagnosis and overtreatment of breast cancer: Estimates of overdiagnosis from two trials of mammographic screening for breast cancer

Randomised controlled trials have shown that the policy of mammographic screening confers a substantial and significant reduction in breast cancer mortality. This has often been accompanied, however, by an increase in breast cancer incidence, particularly during the early years of a screening programme, which has led to concerns about overdiagnosis, that is to say, the diagnosis of disease that, if left undetected and therefore untreated, would not become symptomatic. We used incidence data from two randomised controlled trials of mammographic screening, the Swedish Two-county Trial and the Gothenburg Trial, to establish the timing and magnitude of any excess incidence of invasive disease and ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) in the study groups, to ascertain whether the excess incidence of DCIS reported early in a screening trial is balanced by a later deficit in invasive disease and provide explicit estimates of the rate of 'real' and non-progressive 'overdiagnosed' tumours from the study groups of the trials. We used a multistate model for overdiagnosis and used Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate the parameters. After taking into account the effect of lead time, we estimated that less than 5% of cases diagnosed at prevalence screen and less than 1% of cases diagnosed at incidence screens are being overdiagnosed. Overall, we estimate overdiagnosis to be around 1% of all cases diagnosed in screened populations. These estimates are, however, subject to considerable uncertainty. Our results suggest that overdiagnosis in mammography screening is a minor phenomenon, but further studies with very large numbers are required for more precise estimation

Overdiagnosis and overtreatment of breast cancer: Rates of ductal carcinoma in situ: a US perspective

The incidence of breast ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) in the USA exceeds that of other countries. This cannot be explained entirely by the frequency of mammographic screening in the USA and may result from differences in the interpretation of mammograms and/or the frequency with which biopsies are obtained. Although the percentage of DCIS patients treated with mastectomy has decreased, the absolute number is unchanged and the use of lumpectomy with whole-breast radiotherapy has increased in inverse proportion to the decrease in mastectomy. Treatment of DCIS with tamoxifen is still limited

Increase in mammography detected breast cancer over time at a community based regional cancer center: a longitudinal cohort study 1990–2005

Background: Coincident with the advent of mammography screening, breast carcinoma in situ has increased in the US population. Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study of all women presenting with primary breast cancer, aged 21-94, and biopsy confirmed Stage 0-IV from 1990-2005 identified and tracked by our registry. Clinical presentation characteristics including age, race, TNM stage, family and pregnancy history, histologic type and method of detection by patient (PtD), physician (PhysD) or mammography (MgD) were chart abstracted at time of diagnosis. Cases with unknown or other method of detection (n = 84), or unusual cell types (n = 26) were removed (n = 6074). Results: From 1990 to 1998 the percentage of PtD and MgD cases was roughly equivalent. In 1999 the percentage of MgD cases increased to 56% and PtD dropped to 37%, a significant 20% differential, constant to 2005 (Pearson chi square = 120.99, p less than .001). Overall, percent TNM stage 0 (breast carcinoma in situ) cases increased after 1990, percent stage I and III cases declined, and stage II and IV cases remained constant (Pearson chi square = 218.36, p less than .001). Increase in MgD over time differed by age group with an 8.5% increase among women age 40-49 and 12% increase among women age 50-95. Women age 21-39 rarely had MgD BC. In forward stepwise logistic regression modeling, significant predictors of MgD BC by order of entry were TNM stage, age at diagnosis, diagnosis year, and race (chi square = 1867.56, p less than .001). Conclusion: In our cohort the relative proportion of mammography detected breast cancer increased over time with a higher increase among women age 50+ and an increase of breast carcinoma in situ exclusively among MgD cases. The increase among women currently targeted by mammography screening programs (age = 50) combined with an increase of breast carcinoma in situ most often detected by mammography screening indicates a possible incidence shift to lower stage breast cancer as a result of mammographic detection.Kaplan Research Fun

Discrepancies in the diagnosis of intraductal proliferative lesions of the breast and its management implications: results of a multinational survey

To measure discrepancies in diagnoses and recommendations impacting management of proliferative lesions of the breast, a questionnaire of five problem scenarios was distributed among over 300 practicing pathologists. Of the 230 respondents, 56.5% considered a partial cribriform proliferation within a duct adjacent to unequivocal ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) as atypical ductal hyperplasia (ADH), 37.7% of whom recommended reexcision if it were at a resection margin. Of the 43.5% who diagnosed the partially involved duct as DCIS, 28.0% would not recommend reexcision if the lesion were at a margin. When only five ducts had a partial cribriform proliferation, 35.7% considered it as DCIS, while if ≥20 ducts were so involved, this figure rose to 60.4%. When one duct with a complete cribriform pattern measured 0.5, 1.5, or 4 mm, a diagnosis of DCIS was made by 22.6, 31.3, and 94.8%, respectively. When multiple ducts with flat epithelial atypia were at a margin, 20.9% recommended reexcision. Much of these discrepancies arise from the artificial separation of ADH and low-grade DCIS and emphasize the need for combining these two under the umbrella designation of ductal intraepithelial neoplasia grade 1 (DIN 1) to diminish the impact of different terminologies applied to biologically similar lesions

Overdiagnosis and overtreatment of breast cancer: Overdiagnosis and overtreatment in service screening

Screening mammography has been shown to be effective for reducing breast cancer mortality. According to screening theory, the first expected consequence of mammography screening is the detection of the disease at earlier stages and this diagnostic anticipation changes the population incidence curve, with an observed increase in incidence rates at earlier ages. It is unreasonable to expect that the age-specific incidence will ever return to pre-screening levels or to anticipate a significant reduction of incidence at older ages immediately after the first screening round. The interpretation of incidence trends, especially in the short term, is difficult. Methodology for quantification of overdiagnosis and statistical modelling based on service screening data is not well developed and few population-based studies are available. The overtreatment issue is discussed in terms of appropriateness of effective treatment considering the question of chemotherapy in very early stages and the use of breast conserving surgery

Pathologic and biologic response to preoperative endocrine therapy in patients with ER-positive ductal carcinoma in situ

Abstract Background Endocrine therapy is commonly recommended in the adjuvant setting for patients as treatment for ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). However, it is unknown whether a neoadjuvant (preoperative) anti-estrogen approach to DCIS results in any biological change. This study was undertaken to investigate the pathologic and biomarker changes in DCIS following neoadjuvant endocrine therapy compared to a group of patients who did not undergo preoperative anti-estrogenic treatment to determine whether such treatment results in detectable histologic alterations. Methods Patients (n = 23) diagnosed with ER-positive pure DCIS by stereotactic core biopsy were enrolled in a trial of neoadjuvant anti-estrogen therapy followed by definitive excision. Patients on hormone replacement therapy, with palpable masses, or with histologic or clinical suspicion of invasion were excluded. Premenopausal women were treated with tamoxifen and postmenopausal women were treated with letrozole. Pathologic markers of proliferation, inflammation, and apoptosis were evaluated at baseline and at three months. Biomarker changes were compared to a cohort of patients who had not received preoperative treatment. Results Median age of the cohort was 53 years (range 38–78); 14 were premenopausal. Following treatment, predominant morphologic changes included increased multinucleated histiocytes and degenerated cells, decreased duct extension, and prominent periductal fibrosis. Two postmenopausal patients had ADH only with no residual DCIS at excision. Postmenopausal women on letrozole had significant reduction of PR, and Ki67 as well as increase in CD68-positive cells. For premenopausal women on tamoxifen treatment, the only significant change was increase in CD68. No change in cleaved caspase 3 was found. Two patients had invasive cancer at surgery. Conclusion Preoperative therapy for DCIS is associated with significant pathologic alterations. These changes may be clinically significant. Further work is needed to identify which women may be the best candidates for such treatment for DCIS, and whether best responders may safely avoid surgical intervention. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT0029074

Declining recurrence among ductal carcinoma in situ patients treated with breast-conserving surgery in the community setting

Introduction: Randomized trials indicate that adjuvant radiotherapy plus tamoxifen decrease the five-year risk of recurrence among ductal carcinoma in situ patients treated with breast-conserving surgery from about 20% to 8%. The aims of this study were to examine the use and impact of these therapies on risk of recurrence among ductal carcinoma in situ patients diagnosed and treated in the community setting. Methods: We identified 2,995 patients diagnosed with ductal carcinoma in situ between 1990 and 2001 and treated with breast-conserving surgery at three large health plans. Medical charts were reviewed to confirm diagnosis and treatment and to obtain information on subsequent breast cancers. On a subset of patients, slides from the index ductal carcinoma in situ were reviewed for histopathologic features. Cumulative incidence curves were generated and Cox regression was used to examine changes in five-year risk of recurrence across diagnosis years, with and without adjusting for trends in use of adjuvant therapies. Results: Use of radiotherapy increased from 25.8% in 1990-1991 to 61.3% in 2000-2001; tamoxifen increased from 2.3% to 34.4%. A total of 245 patients had a local recurrence within five years of their index ductal carcinoma in situ. The five-year risk of any local recurrence decreased from 14.3% (95% confidence interval 9.8 to 18.7) for patients diagnosed in 1990-1991 to 7.7% (95% confidence interval 5.5 to 9.9) for patients diagnosed in 1998-1999; invasive recurrence decreased from 7.0% (95% confidence interval 3.8 to 10.3) to 3.1% (95% confidence interval 1.7 to 4.6). In Cox models, the association between diagnosis year and risk of recurrence was modestly attenuated after accounting for use of adjuvant therapy. Between 1990-1991 and 2000-2001, the proportion of patients with tumors with high nuclear grade decreased from 46% to 32% (P = 0.03) and those with involved surgical margins dropped from 15% to 0% (P = 0.03). Conclusions: The marked increase in the 1990s in the use of adjuvant therapy for ductal carcinoma in situ patients treated with breast-conserving surgery in the community setting only partially explains the 50% decline in risk of recurrence. Changes in pathology factors have likely also contributed to this decline

Pathological and Biological Differences Between Screen-Detected and Interval Ductal Carcinoma in situ of the Breast

Background: The incidence of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) has risen dramatically with the introduction of screening mammography. The aim was to evaluate differences in pathological and biological characteristics between patients with screen-detected and interval DCIS. Methods: From January 1992 to December 2001, 128 consecutive patients had been treated for pure DCIS at our institute. From these, 102 had been attending the Dutch breast cancer screening program. Sufficient paraffin-embedded tissue was available in 74 out of the 102 cases to evaluate biological marker expression (Her2/neu, ER, PR, p53 and cyclin D1) on tissue microarrays (TMA group). Differences in clinicopathological characteristics and marker expression between screen-detected and interval patients were evaluated. Screen-detected DCIS was classified as DCIS detected by screening mammography, when the two-year earlier examination failed to reveal an abnormality. Interval patients were classified as patients with DCIS detected within the two-year interval between two subsequent screening rounds. Results: Screen-detected DCIS was related with linear branching and coarse granular microcalcifications on mammography (p < .001) and with high-grade DCIS according to the Van Nuys classification (p = .025). In univariate analysis, screen-detected DCIS was related with Her2/neu overexpression (odds ratio [OR] = 6.5; 95%CI 1.3-31.0; p = .020), and interval DCIS was associated with low-grade (Van Nuys, OR = 7.3; 95% CI 1.6-33.3; p = .010) and PR positivity (OR = 0.3; 95%CI 0.1-1.0; p = .042). The multivariate analysis displayed an independent relation of Her2/neu overexpression with screen-detected DCIS (OR = 12.8; 95%CI 1.6-104.0; p = .018). Conclusions: These findings suggest that screen-detected DCIS is biologically more aggressive than interval DCIS and should not be regarded as overdiagnosis

Survivin expression in in situ and invasive breast cancer relates to COX-2 expression and DCIS recurrence

In lung cancer cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) expression has been reported to stabilise survivin, an inhibitor of apoptosis (IAP) which prevents cell death by blocking activated caspases. COX-2 expression limits the ubiquitination of survivin, protecting it from degradation. To determine if COX-2 expression in breast cancer showed an association with survivin expression, we assessed the levels of each protein in ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and invasive breast cancer (IBC); relating expression patterns to recurrence of DCIS after surgery. Patterns of COX-2 and survivin expression were determined by intensity-graded immunohistochemistry of the primary tumours. Patients with DCIS (n=161) which had either recurred (n=47) or shown no evidence of recurrence (n=114) 5 years following primary surgery were studied. These were compared to 58 cases of IBC. Survivin was expressed in the cytoplasm of 59% of DCIS and 17% of IBC. High levels of both cytoplasmic survivin and COX-2 expression significantly correlated to DCIS recurrence. COX-2 expression was present in 72% of DCIS, and levels of expression positively correlated with cytoplasmic survivin expression in DCIS and invasive disease. The majority of DCIS that recurred expressed both proteins (69%) vs 39% nonrecurrent. Recurrence was not seen in DCIS lacking both proteins at 5 years (P=0.001). Expression of the IAP survivin is increased in DCIS and correlates closely with COX-2 expression. Increased expression of IAP, (leading to reduced apoptosis) may explain the effect of COX-2 in increasing recurrence of DCIS after surgical treatment