Relationship between the proportion of paediatric severe malaria in children under 1 year (a) and children aged 5–9 years (b) and parasite prevalence in the 2–10 age group from Okiro et. al, [18] (black circles) and OpenMalaria simulations (grey triangles).

<p>Triangles represent simulation results with (dark gray) and without (light gray) seasonality. Lines show the estimated relationships with (dashed) and without (unbroken) seasonality using fractional polynomial regression.</p

Relationship between mortality in children under 5 and average all-age parasite prevalence as described in Korenromp et. al [19] (black circles) and OpenMalaria simulations (triangles) for all deaths (light gray) and direct deaths only (dark gray).

<p>Lines show the simulation-based estimated relationships with seasonality ( = 2, 2 peaks) (dashed) and without seasonality (φ = 0, 0 peaks) (unbroken) using fractional polynomial regression. The observed values from Korenromp et. al are results of verbal autopsy which do not specify direct malaria deaths as opposed to indirect malaria deaths.</p

The relationship between prevalence (defined as the maximum recorded parasite prevalence rate in any given age group) and EIR from Beier et. al [17] (3.1 a, 3.2 a–b) and OpenMalaria simulations (3.1 b, 3,2 d).

<p>In <b>3.1</b> the mean value is shown as a line inside the box, the 25th to 75th percentile is shown by the box, and the range of values is shown by the lines outside the box. In <b>3.2</b> grey triangles represent simulation results without (light gray) and with (dark gray) seasonality as described by (the seasonality index , number of peaks) (<a href="http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003812#pcbi-1003812-g001" target="_blank"><b>Figure 1</b></a>). The lines show the estimated relationships with seasonality (2, 2) (dashed) and without seasonality (0, 0) (unbroken) using fractional polynomial regression. <a href="http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003812#pcbi-1003812-g003" target="_blank">Figures <b>3.1a</b> and <b>3.2a–b</b></a> have been reproduced from Beier et al <a href="http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003812#pcbi.1003812-Beier1" target="_blank">[17]</a> with permission.</p

Relationship of parasite prevalence (a), uncomplicated episodes (b), severe episodes (c), and mortality (d) to annual average EIR by seasonality index (<i>φ</i>).

<p>Triangles represent simulated results. The lines show the estimated relationship between indicators from the simulation runs, fitted using fractional polynomial regression, for each pattern of seasonality as described by (the seasonality index , number of peaks) (<a href="http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003812#pcbi-1003812-g001" target="_blank"><b>Figure 1</b></a>). Unbroken red line represents (0, 0). Brown dashed line represents (1,1). Orange dotted-dashed line represents (1,2). Green dotted line represents (2,1). Black dotted-dashed line represents (2,2). Blue dashed line represents (0.5, 2).</p

Median ages and inter-quartile range age prevalence curves in months of age by annual average EIR levels of <10 (a, d), 10–100 (b, e), and >100 (c, f), and seasonality patterns <i>φ</i> = 2, 2 peaks (a–c) and <i>φ</i> = 0, 0 peaks (d–f) for uncomplicated episodes, malaria hospitalizations, and mortality as observed in Carneiro et al. [6] (circles, unbroken lines) and simulated by the OpenMalaria model (triangles, dashed lines).

<p>Median ages and inter-quartile range age prevalence curves in months of age by annual average EIR levels of <10 (a, d), 10–100 (b, e), and >100 (c, f), and seasonality patterns <i>φ</i> = 2, 2 peaks (a–c) and <i>φ</i> = 0, 0 peaks (d–f) for uncomplicated episodes, malaria hospitalizations, and mortality as observed in Carneiro et al. <a href="http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003812#pcbi.1003812-Carneiro1" target="_blank">[6]</a> (circles, unbroken lines) and simulated by the OpenMalaria model (triangles, dashed lines).</p

Annual pattern of transmission, defined as the simulated daily EIR, for each seasonality profile as described by (the seasonality index <i>φ</i>, number of peaks).

<p>Unbroken red line represents (0, 0). Brown dashed line represents (1,1). Orange dotted-dashed line represents (1,2). Green dotted line represents (2,1). Black dotted-dashed line represents (2,2). Blue dashed line represents (0.5, 2).</p

Relationship of uncomplicated episodes (a), severe episodes (b), and mortality (c) to parasite prevalence by seasonality index.

<p>Triangles represent simulated results. The lines show the estimated relationship between indicators from the simulation runs, fitted using fractional polynomial regression, for each pattern of seasonality as described by (the seasonality index , number of peaks) (<a href="http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003812#pcbi-1003812-g001" target="_blank"><b>Figure 1</b></a>). Unbroken red line represents (0, 0). Brown dashed line represents (1,1). Orange dotted-dashed line represents (1,2). Green dotted line represents (2,1). Black dotted-dashed line represents (2,2). Blue dashed line represents (0.5, 2).</p

Malaria indicators described in this study and their definitions for the purposes of this study.

<p>* Transformation used in fractional polynomial analysis.</p><p>Malaria indicators described in this study and their definitions for the purposes of this study.</p

Seasonality patterns of transmission observed malaria-endemic areas.

<p>Seasonality patterns of transmission observed malaria-endemic areas.</p

Relationship of severe episodes to uncomplicated episodes by seasonality index.

<p>Triangles represent simulated results. The lines show the estimated relationship between indicators from the simulation runs, fitted using fractional polynomial regression, for each pattern of seasonality as described by (the seasonality index , number of peaks) (<a href="http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003812#pcbi-1003812-g001" target="_blank"><b>Figure 1</b></a>). Unbroken red line represents (0, 0). Brown dashed line represents (1,1). Orange dotted-dashed line represents (1,2). Green dotted line represents (2,1). Black dotted-dashed line represents (2,2). Blue dashed line represents (0.5, 2).</p