Equilibria in Campaign Spending Games: Theory and Data

This paper presents a formal game-theoretic model to explain the simultaneity problem that has made it difficult to obtain unbiased estimates of the effects of both incumbent and challenger spending in U.S. House elections. The model predicts a particular form of correlation between the expected closeness of the race and the level of spending by both candidates, which implies that the simultaneity problem should not be present in close races, and should be progressively more severe in range of safe races that are empirically observed. This is confirmed by comparing simple OLS regression of races that are expected to be close with races that are expected not to be close, using House incumbent races spanning two decades. The theory also implies that inclusion of a variable controlling for total spending should successfully produce reliable estimates using OLS. This is confirmed

The Spending Game: Money, Votes, and Incumbency in Congressional Elections

This paper takes a game-theoretic approach to the analysis of the spending-votes relationship in Congressional elections to reinvestigate the surprisingly weak effects of incumbent spending measured in previous studies. Rather than focusing narrowly on the impact of spending on electoral outcomes, we attempt to take account of the reciprocal effect of (anticipated) closeness on spending using several statistical approaches. We also offer improvements in the specification and measurement of the vote equation, by using a better measure of district party strength adjusted for year-effects, and by including a variable that measures the heat of the campaign in terms of total spending by the incumbents and challengers. The latter measure partially corrects for the simultaneously determined (and highly positively correlated) levels of incumbent and challenger spending. A more rigorous multiequation simultaneous equations model, identified by uncorrelated errors, provides even more leverage for sorting out the effects of incumbent and challenger spending on votes. That analysis indicates (in a complete turnaround from findings reported elsewhere) that incumbent spending effects are highly significant and of a magnitude that is, if anything, greater than challenger spending effects. The paper concludes by using a game theoretic model to estimate the effect of anticipated closeness on spending and to estimate differences in campaign financing costs between incumbents and challengers

Structure and dynamics of a model glass: influence of long-range forces

We vary the amplitude of the long-range Coulomb forces within a classical potential describing a model silica glass and study the consequences on the structure and dynamics of the glass, via molecular dynamics simulations. This model allows us to follow the variation of specific features such as the First Sharp Diffraction Peak and the Boson Peak in a system going continuously from a fragile (no Coulomb forces) to a strong (with Coulomb forces) glass. In particular we show that the characteristic features of a strong glass (existence of medium range order, bell-shaped ring size distribution, sharp Boson peak) appear as soon as tetrahedral units are formed.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures. To be published in J.Phys.: C

Variability survey in the CoRoT SRa01 field: Implications of eclipsing binary distribution on cluster formation in NGC 2264

Time-series photometry of the CoRoT field SRa01 was carried out with the Berlin Exoplanet Search Telescope II (BEST II) in 2008/2009. A total of 1,161 variable stars were detected, of which 241 were previously known and 920 are newly found. Several new, variable young stellar objects have been discovered. The study of the spatial distribution of eclipsing binaries revealed the higher relative frequency of Algols toward the center of the young open cluster NGC 2264. In general Algol frequency obeys an isotropic distribution of their angular momentum vectors, except inside the cluster, where a specific orientation of the inclinations is the case. We suggest that we see the orbital plane of the binaries almost edge-on.Comment: 18 pages, 8 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

The Berlin Exoplanet Search Telescope II. Catalog of Variable Stars. I. Characterization of Three Southern Target Fields

A photometric survey of three Southern target fields with BEST II yielded the detection of 2,406 previously unknown variable stars and an additional 617 stars with suspected variability. This study presents a catalog including their coordinates, magnitudes, light curves, ephemerides, amplitudes, and type of variability. In addition, the variability of 17 known objects is confirmed, thus validating the results. The catalog contains a number of known and new variables that are of interest for further astrophysical investigations, in order to, e.g., search for additional bodies in eclipsing binary systems, or to test stellar interior models. Altogether, 209,070 stars were monitored with BEST II during a total of 128 nights in 2009/2010. The overall variability fraction of 1.2-1.5% in these target fields is well comparable to similar ground-based photometric surveys. Within the main magnitude range of $R\in\left[11,17\right]$, we identify 0.67(3)% of all stars to be eclipsing binaries, which indicates a completeness of about one third for this particular type in comparison to space surveys.Comment: accepted to A

The Spending Game: Money, Votes, and Incumbency in Congressional Elections

This paper takes a game-theoretic approach to the analysis of the spending-votes relationship in Congressional elections to reinvestigate the surprisingly weak effects of incumbent spending measured in previous studies. Rather than focusing narrowly on the impact of spending on electoral outcomes, we attempt to take account of the reciprocal effect of (anticipated) closeness on spending using several statistical approaches. We also offer improvements in the specification and measurement of the vote equation, by using a better measure of district party strength adjusted for year-effects, and by including a variable that measures the heat of the campaign in terms of total spending by the incumbents and challengers. The latter measure partially corrects for the simultaneously determined (and highly positively correlated) levels of incumbent and challenger spending. A more rigorous multiequation simultaneous equations model, identified by uncorrelated errors, provides even more leverage for sorting out the effects of incumbent and challenger spending on votes. That analysis indicates (in a complete turnaround from findings reported elsewhere) that incumbent spending effects are highly significant and of a magnitude that is, if anything, greater than challenger spending effects. The paper concludes by using a game theoretic model to estimate the effect of anticipated closeness on spending and to estimate differences in campaign financing costs between incumbents and challengers

The BAST algorithm for transit detection

The pioneer space mission for photometric exoplanet searches, CoRoT, steadily monitors about 12000 stars in each of its fields of view. Transit detection algorithms are applied to derive promising planetary candidates, which are then followed-up with ground-based observations. We present BAST (Berlin Automatic Search for Transits), a new algorithm for periodic transit detection, and test it on simulated CoRoT data. BAST searches for box-shaped signals in normalized, filtered, variability-fitted, and unfolded light curves. A low-pass filter is applied to remove high-frequency signals, and linear fits to subsections of data are subtracted to remove the star's variability. A search for periodicity is then performed in transit events identified above a given detection threshold. Some criteria are defined to better separate planet candidates from binary stars. From the analysis of simulated CoRoT light curves, we show that the BAST detection performance is similar to that of the Box-fitting Least-Square (BLS) method if the signal-to-noise ratio is high. However, the BAST box search for transits computes 10 times faster than the BLS method. By adding periodic transits to simulated CoRoT data, we show that the minimum periodic depth detectable with BAST is a linearly increasing function of the noise level. For low-noise light curves, the detection limit corresponds to a transit depth d~0.01%, i.e. a planet of 1 Earth radius around a solar-type star.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, to be published in A&

All Who Wander: On the Prevalence and Characteristics of Multi-community Engagement

Although analyzing user behavior within individual communities is an active and rich research domain, people usually interact with multiple communities both on- and off-line. How do users act in such multi-community environments? Although there are a host of intriguing aspects to this question, it has received much less attention in the research community in comparison to the intra-community case. In this paper, we examine three aspects of multi-community engagement: the sequence of communities that users post to, the language that users employ in those communities, and the feedback that users receive, using longitudinal posting behavior on Reddit as our main data source, and DBLP for auxiliary experiments. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of features drawn from these aspects in predicting users' future level of activity. One might expect that a user's trajectory mimics the "settling-down" process in real life: an initial exploration of sub-communities before settling down into a few niches. However, we find that the users in our data continually post in new communities; moreover, as time goes on, they post increasingly evenly among a more diverse set of smaller communities. Interestingly, it seems that users that eventually leave the community are "destined" to do so from the very beginning, in the sense of showing significantly different "wandering" patterns very early on in their trajectories; this finding has potentially important design implications for community maintainers. Our multi-community perspective also allows us to investigate the "situation vs. personality" debate from language usage across different communities.Comment: 11 pages, data available at https://chenhaot.com/pages/multi-community.html, Proceedings of WWW 2015 (updated references

Long-term stability of earthen materials in contact with acidic tailings solutions

The objectives of the studies documented in this report were to use experimental and geochemical computer modeling tools to assess the long-term environmental impact of leachate movement from acidic uranium mill tailings. Liner failure (i.e., an increase in the permeability of the liner material) was not found to be a problem when various acidic tailings solutions leached through liner materials for periods up to 3 years. On the contrary, materials that contained over 30% clay showed a decrease in permeability with time in the laboratory columns. The high clay materials tested appear suitable for lining tailings impoundment ponds. The decreases in permeability are attributed to pore plugging resulting from the precipitation of minerals and solids. This precipitation takes place due to the increase in pH of the tailings solution brought about by the buffering capacity of the soil. Geochemical modeling predicts, and x-ray characterization confirms, that precipitation of solids from solution is occurring in the acidic tailings solution/liner interactions studied. In conclusion the same mineralogical changes and contaminant reactions predicted by geochemical modeling and observed in laboratory studies were found at a drained evaporation pond (Lucky Mc in Wyoming) with a 4 year history of acid attack