Are the facts of UK inflation persistence to be explained by nominal rigidity or changes in monetary regime?

It has been widely argued that inflation persistence since WWII has been widespread and durable and that it can only be accounted for by models with a high degree of nominal rigidity. We examine UK post-war data and find that the varying persistence it reveals is largely due to changing monetary regimes and that models with moderate or even no nominal rigidity are best equipped to explain it.

Would price-level targeting destabilise the economy?

When indexation is endogenous price level targeting slightly adds to economic stability, contrary to widespread fears to the contrary. The aggregate supply curve flattens and the aggregate demand curve steepens, increasing stability in the face of supply shocks

Can a pure Real Business Cycle model explain the real exchange rate?

This paper establishes the ability of a Real Business Cycle model to account for UK real exchange rate behaviour. The model is tested by the method of indirect inference, bootstrapping the errors to generate 95% con�dence limits for a time-series representation of the real exchange rate, as well as for various key data moments. The results suggest RBC models can explain real exchange rate movements

Economic policy: protectionism as an elite strategy

The EU has pursued protectionist policies not merely in food but also in manufacturing at the customs union level. In services it has not dismantled much of the existing national protectionism. The economic costs are calculated here at some 3% of GDP for the UK and some 4% for the rest of the EU --- or much larger under liberal planning assumptions. Added to its social interventionism, these costs suggest that the EU has put political integration before economic efficiency. This policymaking pattern suggests that European elites believe their position would be threatened by the domestic effects of world competition

Can the facts of UK inflation persistence be explained by nominal rigidity?

It has been widely argued that inflation persistence since WWII has been widespread and durable and that it can only be accounted for by models with a high degree of nominal rigidity. We examine UK post-war data where after confirming previous studies' findings of varying persistence due to changing monetary regimes, we find that models with little nominal rigidity are best equipped to explain it

Nominal Contracts as Behaviour Towards Risk

We look for a theoretical justification of nominal wage contracts in household diversification of risk. We assume it is more costly for households than for firms to use financial markets for this purpose. In a calibrated general equilibrium model we find from stochastic simulation that where nominal shocks have comparable variability to real shocks optimal wage contracts are overwhelmingly nominal, in accordance with general OECD experience.General Equilibrium; Indexing Diversification; Nominal Contracts; Stochastic Simulation

Optimal Monetary Policy with Endogenous Contracts: Should we Return to a Commodity Standard?

A representative agent who is employed chooses an optimal degree of wage indexation (to prices and the auction wage) in response to the monetary regime. Should that regime target the growth rate or the level of the money supply, or of prices (as in a commodity standard)? We find that, contrary to the usual finding from macroeconomic models with fixed wage contract structures, there are gains in welfare for the average household, with both real wages and employment being stabilized. The reason is that when the monetary regime shifts to targeting levels, indexation falls markedly; this flattens the aggregate supply curve and steepens the aggregate demand curve, providing a high degree of ‘automatic’ stabilization. The choice between targeting money or prices creates a trade-off between employment and real wage stability-implying a distributional conflict between insiders and outsiders in the labour market.Inflation Targeting; Interest Rate Setting; Monetary Rules; Price Level Targeting

Nominal Contracts and Monetary Targets

We look for a theoretical justification of nominal wage contracts in household diversification of risk. We assume it is more costly for households than for firms to use financial markets for this purpose. In a calibrated general equilibrium model we find from stochastic simulation that if both productivity and monetary shocks are temporary then optimal wage contracts are overwhelmingly nominal. When the dominant shock-usually money - is persistent, wage indexation or the auction wage share (each a form of 'real wage protection') rises sharply. OECD experience in the 1970s fits the model's prediction of high wage protection; for the 1990s the model predicts little reduction in protection. The model suggests that the persistence in monetary shocks- implying that the central bank targets the growth rate rather than the level of the money supply (or the price level), or 'base drift' as currently practised throughout the OECD- not only raises wage protection but also reduces welfare in a world where productivity shocks are persistent, as both theory and our empirical results suggest they are. This suggests that this central bank practice is due for review.Base Drift; Indexation of Loans; Monetary Targets; Nominal Rigidity