The Emergence of Correlations in Studies of Global Economic Inter-dependence and Contagion

We construct a simple firm-based automata model for global economic inter-dependence of countries using modern notions of self-organized criticality and recently developed dynamical-renormalization-group methods (e.g., L. Pietronero et al., Phys. Rev. Lett., 72(11):1690 (1994); J. Hasty and K. Wiesenfeld, Phys. Rev. Lett., 81(8):1722, (1998)). We demonstrate how extremely strong statistical correlations can naturally develop between two countries even if the financial interconnections between those countries remain very weak. Potential policy implications of this result are also discussed.

Individual-level loss aversion in riskless and risky choices

Loss aversion can occur in riskless and risky choices. Yet, there is no evidence whether people who are loss averse in riskless choices are also loss averse in risky choices. We measure individual-level loss aversion in riskless choices in an endowment effect experiment by eliciting both WTA and WTP from each of our 360 subjects (randomly selected customers of a car manufacturer). All subjects also participate in a simple lottery choice task which arguably measures loss aversion in risky choices. We find substantial heterogeneity in both measures of loss aversion. Loss aversion in the riskless choice task and loss aversion in the risky choice task are highly significantly and strongly positively correlated. We find that in both choice tasks loss aversion increases in age, income, and wealth, and decreases in education.Loss aversion, endowment effect, field experiments

A stellar census of the nearby, young 32 Orionis group

The 32 Orionis group was discovered almost a decade ago and despite the fact that it represents the first northern, young (age ~ 25 Myr) stellar aggregate within 100 pc of the Sun ($d \simeq 93$ pc), a comprehensive survey for members and detailed characterisation of the group has yet to be performed. We present the first large-scale spectroscopic survey for new (predominantly M-type) members of the group after combining kinematic and photometric data to select candidates with Galactic space motion and positions in colour-magnitude space consistent with membership. We identify 30 new members, increasing the number of known 32 Ori group members by a factor of three and bringing the total number of identified members to 46, spanning spectral types B5 to L1. We also identify the lithium depletion boundary (LDB) of the group, i.e. the luminosity at which lithium remains unburnt in a coeval population. We estimate the age of the 32 Ori group independently using both isochronal fitting and LDB analyses and find it is essentially coeval with the {\beta} Pictoris moving group, with an age of $24\pm4$ Myr. Finally, we have also searched for circumstellar disc hosts utilising the AllWISE catalogue. Although we find no evidence for warm, dusty discs, we identify several stars with excess emission in the WISE W4-band at 22 {\mu}m. Based on the limited number of W4 detections we estimate a debris disc fraction of $32^{+12}_{-8}$ per cent for the 32 Ori group.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS; 24 pages, 17 figures and 10 table

UK voters, including Leavers, care more about reducing non-EU than EU migration

Despite the argument that Brexit was about sovereignty and only secondarily about immigration, new data suggest otherwise. Simon Hix, Eric Kaufmann, and Thomas J. Leeper show the importance of reducing immigration levels – especially from outside the EU – to British voters

Synthetic approaches to the C11-C27 fragments of bryostatins

Modified Julia reactions and reactions of lithated dithianes have been used to prepare intermediates for a synthesis of bryostatins.</p

Pricing immigration

Immigration is highly salient for voters in Europe and the United States and has generated considerable academic debate about the causes of preferences over immigration. This debate centers around the relative influences of sociotropic or personal economic considerations, as well as non-economic threats. We provide a test of the competing egocentric, sociotropic, and non-economic paradigms using a novel constrained preference experiment in which respondents are asked to trade-off preferred reductions in immigration levels with realistic estimates of the personal or societal costs associated with those reductions. This survey experiment, per- formed on a national sample of British YouGov panelists, allows us to measure the price-elasticity of the public’s preferences with regard to levels of European and non-European immigration. Respondents were willing to admit more immigrants when restriction carries economic costs, with egocentric considerations as important as sociotropic ones. People who voted for the UK to Leave the European Union in the 2016 referendum are less price-elastic than those voting Remain, indicating that non-economic concerns are also important

Large-scale synchrony, global interdependence and contagion

We construct a simple firm-based model of global interdependence. We show how extremely strong statistical correlations can naturally develop between countries even if the interconnections between those countries remain very weak. Potential policy implications of this result are also discussed

Improved seasonal prediction skill of rainfall for the Priera season in Central America

This study explores the predictive skill of seasonal rainfall characteristics for the first rainy (and planting) season, May–June, in Central America. Statistical predictive models were built using a Model Output Statistics (MOS) technique based on canonical correlation analysis, in which variables that forecast with the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) were used as candidate predictors for the observed total precipitation, frequency of rainy days and mean number of extremely dry and wet events in the season. CFSv2 initializations from February to April were explored. The CFSv2 variables used in the study consist of rainfall, as in a typical MOS technique, and a combination of low-level winds and convective available potential energy (CAPE), a blend that has been previously shown to be a good predictor for convective activity. The highest predictive skill was found for the seasonal frequency of rainy days, followed by the mean frequency of dry events. In terms of candidate predictors, the zonal transport of CAPE (uCAPE) at 925 hPa offers higher skill across Central America than rainfall, which is attributed in part to the high model uncertainties associated with precipitation in the region. As expected, dynamical model predictors initialized in February provide lower skill than those initialized later. Nonetheless, the skill is comparable for March and April initializations. These results suggest that the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Central America, and the Central American Regional Climate Outlook Forum, can produce earlier more skilful forecasts for May–June rainfall characteristics than previously stated