Human Capital and Spatial Heterogeneity in the Iberian Countries’ Regional Growth and Convergence

Human capital is believed to be an important conditioning factor in explaining the convergence and the speed of convergence of regional economies, although it is usually excluded from the estimated models due to a lack of consistent data. In contrast this paper, using a newly constructed series on human capital at the NUTS III level for Portugal, evaluates the role of human capital on the speed of convergence using a spatial econometric methodology, for a sample of Iberian NUTS III regions over the period 1991-2006. This is the first study to consider human capital effects at the NUTS III level and the results show convergence, both absolute and conditional, occurs mainly in the peripheral group of regions, while human capital plays a positive role only in the club of the richest regions, in contrast with an insignificant effect in the periphery. There is also evidence of important regional spillovers between the regions and evidence of the importance of EU regional policy in enhancing the convergence of the NUTS III regions.Regional growth, beta-convergence, Human Capital, Spatial Effects

The Location of Foreign Direct Investment in the Central and Eastern European Countries: A Mixed Logit and Multilevel Data Approach

This paper uses the Mixed logit (ML) model and a novel three-level dataset to examine the factors explaining 1,108 foreign direct investment (FDI) location decisions into 13 Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) over an eleven-year period between 1997 and 2007. The ML model approach is superior to other discrete choice methods in that it allows for random taste variation, unrestricted substitution patterns and correlation in unobserved factors over time. The highly significant empirical results, based on a general underlying economic model of imperfect competition, show that the responsiveness of the probabilities of choices to invest in a particular country in CEE to country-level variables differs both across sectors and across firms of different sizes and profitability. The results generalise previous studies that used only country-level data or only industry- and firm-level data to give a more accurate explanation of the firm-specific investment location decisions.Mixed logit model, random parameters, foreign direct investment, multi-level data, Halton draws

A Meta-Analysis of the Robustness of Market Size and Labour Cost Determinants of FDI

This paper applies a meta-regression analysis to systematically summarise, integrate and synthesise the results of empirical studies that include market size and labour costs as determinants of FDI. Random effects panel estimation is employed separately for the sample of primary studies that use OLS estimation to analyse the effect of market size and labour costs on FDI and for the sample of primary studies that employ discrete choice models to estimate the effect of market size and labour costs on FDI. A number of factors related to model specifications, dataset characteristics and methodologies in the primary studies explain the variation in the estimated t-statistics of the effect of market size and labour costs on FDI across the studies. Most tests for publication bias indicate that the empirical literature on the effect of market size on FDI favours positive estimates while empirical literature on the effect of labour costs on FDI favours negative estimates. None of the literature, however, favours statistical significance.meta-regression analysis, foreign direct investment, market size and labour costs, publication bias

The Dynamic Adjustment of a Transition Economy in the Early Stages of Transformation

This paper develops a model of a representative transition economy to explain the stylised facts of output declines and real exchange rate appreciation in the early stages of transformation. These facts can be explained by supply-side shocks, interest rate liberalisation or a reduction in core inflation. The policy implication is that price liberalisation in advance of financial liberalization and structural reform, including widespread privatisation of the production process, necessarily results in some temporary loss of output.Transition dynamics, overshooting, competitiveness, output decline

The Location of Foreign Direct Investment in the Central and Eastern European Countries: A Nested Logit and Multilevel Data Approach

This paper generalizes the existing empirical literature on the determinants of the location of FDI, using a nested logit (NL) model and a novel three-level dataset to examine the factors explaining 1,108 foreign investment location decisions into 13 Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) between 1997 and 2007. The NL model relaxes the multinomial logit model assumption of independence of identically distributed error terms and allows for testing if national boundaries affect the investment location choices of MNEs in the CEECs. In contrast to the existing empirical literature on the investment location choices, the Heteroskedastic Extreme Value model is used as a tool to reveal an appropriate nesting structure. The highly significant empirical results, based on a general underlying economic model of imperfect competition, show that the responsiveness of FDI in the CEECs to country-level variables differs both across sectors and across firms of different sizes and profitability. Hence the results of previous studies that used only country-level data or only industry- and firm-level data may be misleading.Nested logit model, foreign direct investment, multi-level data, heteroskedastic extreme value model

Regional Growth and Convergence: The Role of Human Capital in the Portuguese Regions

Potentially one of the most important determinants of regional economic growth and convergence is human capital, although due to a lack of data this factor is frequently omitted from econometric studies. In contrast, this paper constructs three measures of human capital at the NUTS III regional level for Portugal for the period 1991-2008 and then includes these variables in regional growth regressions. The results show that both secondary and higher levels of education have a significant positive effect on regional growth rates which may be regarded as supportive of Portuguese education policy, which over the last three decades has attempted to raise the regional human capital by locating higher education institutions across the country.Human capital, Regional convergence, GMM

The Latent Heterogeneity in Investment Location Choices of Multinational Enterprises

The heterogeneity of investing firms is an important determinant of the distribution of foreign direct investment (FDI) location decisions. This paper, for the first time, explicitly allows for firms’ heterogeneity by using a latent class discrete choice model and a new multi-level data set to examine over 1100 individual firm FDI-location decisions over an 11-year period. The highly significant empirical results show that the responsiveness of the probabilities of choices to invest in a particular country location to country-level variables differs both across sectors and across firms of different sizes and profitability. Therefore, controlling for investing firms’ heterogeneity is important if robust estimates are to be obtained.d.Latent Class model, firm heterogeneity, foreign direct investment, multi-level data

Terms of Trade Shocks and Economic Performance Under Different Exchange Rate Regimes

The impact of terms of trade shocks on a country’s output and price level are, according to economic theory, expected to vary according to the de facto exchange rate regime. This paper tests this hypothesis how terms of trade shocks impact on 22 African countries, which operate different de facto exchange rate regimes, using a structural VAR with long-run restrictions, over the period from 1980 to 2007. The empirical findings support the view that the exchange rate regime matters as to how countries respond to exogenous external shocks like terms of trade shocks, in that output variation is greater for countries with fixed regimes, while for flexible regime countries real exchange rate variation reduces the need for output variability.Terms of Trade, Exchange Rate Regimes, Structural VARs

An Empirical Investigation of the Determinants of the Location of Foreign Direct Investment in the Central and Eastern European Countries Using Multilevel Data

This paper employs a novel multi-level data set and a multinomial logit model - to examine the factors explaining 1,223 foreign investment location decisions by firms in the EU(15), Japan, Norway, Russia, Switzerland and the US in 12 Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs). The highly significant empirical results, based on a general underlying model of imperfect competition, show that the responsiveness of foreign direct investment in the CEECs to country-level variables differs significantly both across sectors and across firms of different sizes and profitability. In particular, in addition to the traditional importance of market size and distance, firm size and the effective corporate tax rate are also important for the location of investment.Multi-level data, foreign direct investment, multinomial logit model

Tipo de cambio real estructural y las interdependencias con el desempleo en Argentina

Based on a three-sector micro-founded model of a small open economy, this paper investigates the interdependences between the structural real exchange rate (defined as the relative prices tradable to non-tradable goods prices) and the unemployment rate with an application to Argentina. The empirical results suggest a significant, negative relationship between the structural real exchange rate and the rate of unemployment, suggesting that an appreciating real exchange rate may lead to Dutch disease effects – which effectively contract the size of the manufacturing sector – and damage long-term growth and employment opportunities.Utilizando un modelo micro-fundamentado de tres sectores para una pequeña economía abierta, se analiza la interdependencia entre la tasa de cambio real estructural (definida como el cociente entre el precio de los bienes transables y el de los no transables) y la tasa de desempleo, aplicándolo al caso de Argentina. Los resultados empíricos sugieren una relación negativa y significativa entre el tipo de cambio real estructural y la tasa de desempleo, lo cual indicaría que frente a una apreciación del tipo de cambio real se puede producir un efecto del tipo enfermedad holandesa - contrayendo el sector productor de manufacturas - afectando negativamente las oportunidades de crecimiento y empleo en el largo plazo.