Exchange Rate Forecasting: Evidence from the Emerging Central and Eastern European Economies

There is a vast literature on exchange rate forecasting focusing on developed economies. Since the early 1990s, many developing economies have liberalized their financial accounts, and become an integral part of the international financial system. A series of financial crises experienced by these emerging market economies ed them to switch to some form of a flexible exchange rate regime, coupled with inflation targeting. These developments, in turn, accentuate the need for exchange rate forecasting in such economies. This paper is a first attempt to compile data from the emerging Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies, to evaluate the performance of versions of the monetary model of exchange rate determination, and time series models for forecasting exchange rates. Forecast performance of these models at various horizons are evaluated against that of a random walk, which, overwhelmingly, was found to be the best exchange rate predictor for developed economies in the previous literature. Following Clark and West (2006, 2007) for forecast performance analysis, we report that in short horizons, structural models and time series models outperform the random walk for the six CEE countries in the data set

An Experimental Study of Reduced-Voltage Operation in Modern FPGAs for Neural Network Acceleration

We empirically evaluate an undervolting technique, i.e., underscaling the circuit supply voltage below the nominal level, to improve the power-efficiency of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) accelerators mapped to Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs). Undervolting below a safe voltage level can lead to timing faults due to excessive circuit latency increase. We evaluate the reliability-power trade-off for such accelerators. Specifically, we experimentally study the reduced-voltage operation of multiple components of real FPGAs, characterize the corresponding reliability behavior of CNN accelerators, propose techniques to minimize the drawbacks of reduced-voltage operation, and combine undervolting with architectural CNN optimization techniques, i.e., quantization and pruning. We investigate the effect of environmental temperature on the reliability-power trade-off of such accelerators. We perform experiments on three identical samples of modern Xilinx ZCU102 FPGA platforms with five state-of-the-art image classification CNN benchmarks. This approach allows us to study the effects of our undervolting technique for both software and hardware variability. We achieve more than 3X power-efficiency (GOPs/W) gain via undervolting. 2.6X of this gain is the result of eliminating the voltage guardband region, i.e., the safe voltage region below the nominal level that is set by FPGA vendor to ensure correct functionality in worst-case environmental and circuit conditions. 43% of the power-efficiency gain is due to further undervolting below the guardband, which comes at the cost of accuracy loss in the CNN accelerator. We evaluate an effective frequency underscaling technique that prevents this accuracy loss, and find that it reduces the power-efficiency gain from 43% to 25%.Comment: To appear at the DSN 2020 conferenc

PiDRAM: A Holistic End-to-end FPGA-based Framework for Processing-in-DRAM

Processing-using-memory (PuM) techniques leverage the analog operation of memory cells to perform computation. Several recent works have demonstrated PuM techniques in off-the-shelf DRAM devices. Since DRAM is the dominant memory technology as main memory in current computing systems, these PuM techniques represent an opportunity for alleviating the data movement bottleneck at very low cost. However, system integration of PuM techniques imposes non-trivial challenges that are yet to be solved. Design space exploration of potential solutions to the PuM integration challenges requires appropriate tools to develop necessary hardware and software components. Unfortunately, current specialized DRAM-testing platforms, or system simulators do not provide the flexibility and/or the holistic system view that is necessary to deal with PuM integration challenges. We design and develop PiDRAM, the first flexible end-to-end framework that enables system integration studies and evaluation of real PuM techniques. PiDRAM provides software and hardware components to rapidly integrate PuM techniques across the whole system software and hardware stack (e.g., necessary modifications in the operating system, memory controller). We implement PiDRAM on an FPGA-based platform along with an open-source RISC-V system. Using PiDRAM, we implement and evaluate two state-of-the-art PuM techniques: in-DRAM (i) copy and initialization, (ii) true random number generation. Our results show that the in-memory copy and initialization techniques can improve the performance of bulk copy operations by 12.6x and bulk initialization operations by 14.6x on a real system. Implementing the true random number generator requires only 190 lines of Verilog and 74 lines of C code using PiDRAM's software and hardware components.Comment: To appear in ACM Transactions on Architecture and Code Optimizatio

The Relationship Between Arthroplasty Surgeons' Experience Level and Optimal Cable Tensioning in the Fixation of Extended Trochanteric Osteotomy

Introduction: In this study, our aim was to examine the relationship between the arthroplasty surgeons' experience level and their aptitude to adjust the cable tension to the value recommended by the manufacturer when asked to provide fixation with cables in artificial bones that underwent extended trochanteric osteotomy (ETO). Materials and Methods: A custom-made cable tensioning device with a microvoltmeter was used to measure the tension values in Newtons (N). An ETO was performed on 4 artificial femur bones. Surgeons at various levels of experience attending the IXth National Arthroplasty Congress were asked to fix the osteotomized fragment using 1.7-mm cables and the tensioning device. The participants' demographic and experience data were investigated and recorded. The surgeons with different level of experience repeated the tensioning test 3 times and the average of these measurements were recorded. Results: In 19 (35.2%) of the 54 participants, the force applied to the cable was found to be greater than the 490.33 N (50 kg) value recommended by the manufacturer. No statistically significant difference was determined between the surgeon's years of experience, the number of cases, and the number of cables used and the tension applied over the recommended maximum value (P = .475, P = .312, and P = .691, respectively). Conclusions: No significant relationship was found between the arthroplasty surgeon's level of experience and the adjustment of the cable with the correct tension level. For this reason, we believe that the use of tensioning devices with calibrated tension gauges by orthopedic surgeons would help in reducing the number of complications that may occur due to the cable

DRAM Bender: An Extensible and Versatile FPGA-based Infrastructure to Easily Test State-of-the-art DRAM Chips

To understand and improve DRAM performance, reliability, security and energy efficiency, prior works study characteristics of commodity DRAM chips. Unfortunately, state-of-the-art open source infrastructures capable of conducting such studies are obsolete, poorly supported, or difficult to use, or their inflexibility limit the types of studies they can conduct. We propose DRAM Bender, a new FPGA-based infrastructure that enables experimental studies on state-of-the-art DRAM chips. DRAM Bender offers three key features at the same time. First, DRAM Bender enables directly interfacing with a DRAM chip through its low-level interface. This allows users to issue DRAM commands in arbitrary order and with finer-grained time intervals compared to other open source infrastructures. Second, DRAM Bender exposes easy-to-use C++ and Python programming interfaces, allowing users to quickly and easily develop different types of DRAM experiments. Third, DRAM Bender is easily extensible. The modular design of DRAM Bender allows extending it to (i) support existing and emerging DRAM interfaces, and (ii) run on new commercial or custom FPGA boards with little effort. To demonstrate that DRAM Bender is a versatile infrastructure, we conduct three case studies, two of which lead to new observations about the DRAM RowHammer vulnerability. In particular, we show that data patterns supported by DRAM Bender uncovers a larger set of bit-flips on a victim row compared to the data patterns commonly used by prior work. We demonstrate the extensibility of DRAM Bender by implementing it on five different FPGAs with DDR4 and DDR3 support. DRAM Bender is freely and openly available at https://github.com/CMU-SAFARI/DRAM-Bender.Comment: To appear in TCAD 202

TuRaN: True Random Number Generation Using Supply Voltage Underscaling in SRAMs

Prior works propose SRAM-based TRNGs that extract entropy from SRAM arrays. SRAM arrays are widely used in a majority of specialized or general-purpose chips that perform the computation to store data inside the chip. Thus, SRAM-based TRNGs present a low-cost alternative to dedicated hardware TRNGs. However, existing SRAM-based TRNGs suffer from 1) low TRNG throughput, 2) high energy consumption, 3) high TRNG latency, and 4) the inability to generate true random numbers continuously, which limits the application space of SRAM-based TRNGs. Our goal in this paper is to design an SRAM-based TRNG that overcomes these four key limitations and thus, extends the application space of SRAM-based TRNGs. To this end, we propose TuRaN, a new high-throughput, energy-efficient, and low-latency SRAM-based TRNG that can sustain continuous operation. TuRaN leverages the key observation that accessing SRAM cells results in random access failures when the supply voltage is reduced below the manufacturer-recommended supply voltage. TuRaN generates random numbers at high throughput by repeatedly accessing SRAM cells with reduced supply voltage and post-processing the resulting random faults using the SHA-256 hash function. To demonstrate the feasibility of TuRaN, we conduct SPICE simulations on different process nodes and analyze the potential of access failure for use as an entropy source. We verify and support our simulation results by conducting real-world experiments on two commercial off-the-shelf FPGA boards. We evaluate the quality of the random numbers generated by TuRaN using the widely-adopted NIST standard randomness tests and observe that TuRaN passes all tests. TuRaN generates true random numbers with (i) an average (maximum) throughput of 1.6Gbps (1.812Gbps), (ii) 0.11nJ/bit energy consumption, and (iii) 278.46us latency

An experimental study of reduced-voltage operation in modern FPGAs for neural network acceleration

We empirically evaluate an undervolting technique, i.e., underscaling the circuit supply voltage below the nominal level, to improve the power-efficiency of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) accelerators mapped to Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs). Undervolting below a safe voltage level can lead to timing faults due to excessive circuit latency increase. We evaluate the reliability-power trade-off for such accelerators. Specifically, we experimentally study the reduced-voltage operation of multiple components of real FPGAs, characterize the corresponding reliability behavior of CNN accelerators, propose techniques to minimize the drawbacks of reduced-voltage operation, and combine undervolting with architectural CNN optimization techniques, i.e., quantization and pruning. We investigate the effect ofenvironmental temperature on the reliability-power trade-off of such accelerators. We perform experiments on three identical samples of modern Xilinx ZCU102 FPGA platforms with five state-of-the-art image classification CNN benchmarks. This approach allows us to study the effects of our undervolting technique for both software and hardware variability. We achieve more than 3X power-efficiency (GOPs/W ) gain via undervolting. 2.6X of this gain is the result of eliminating the voltage guardband region, i.e., the safe voltage region below the nominal level that is set by FPGA vendor to ensure correct functionality in worst-case environmental and circuit conditions. 43% of the power-efficiency gain is due to further undervolting below the guardband, which comes at the cost of accuracy loss in the CNN accelerator. We evaluate an effective frequency underscaling technique that prevents this accuracy loss, and find that it reduces the power-efficiency gain from 43% to 25%.The work done for this paper was partially supported by a HiPEAC Collaboration Grant funded by the H2020 HiPEAC Project under grant agreement No. 779656. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Programme under the LEGaTO Project (www.legato-project.eu), grant agreement No. 780681.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

ChargeCache: Reducing DRAM Latency by Exploiting Row Access Locality

22nd IEEE International Symposium on High-Performance Computer Architecture (HPCA) (2016 : Barcelona, SPAIN)DRAM latency continues to be a critical bottleneck for system performance. In this work, we develop a low-cost mechanism, called ChargeCache, that enables faster access to recently-accessed rows in DRAM, with no modifications to DRAM chips. Our mechanism is based on the key observation that a recently-accessed row has more charge and thus the following access to the same row can be performed faster. To exploit this observation, we propose to track the addresses of recently-accessed rows in a table in the memory controller. If a later DRAM request hits in that table, the memory controller uses lower timing parameters, leading to reduced DRAM latency. Row addresses are removed from the table after a specified duration to ensure rows that have leaked too much charge are not accessed with lower latency. We evaluate ChargeCache on a wide variety of workloads and show that it provides significant performance and energy benefits for both single-core and multi-core systems