A Descriptive Analysis of U.S. Housing Demand for the 1990s

We analyze the effect of changes in type of household formation (i.e., single person, single parent, married couple, etc.) on the demand for housing and segment income by household type to determine housing tenure. Using data disaggregated by household type, we forecast housing demand for the United States through the turn ofthe century. The results indicate that total housing demand for the decade will be 11.8 million units, of which 8.1 million will be owner-occupied and 3.7 million will be renter-occupied

A Descriptive Analysis of the Retail Real Estate Markets at the Metropolitan Level

Gross Leasable Area (GLA) per capita is a commonly used measure to compare the retail market potential across different retail real estate markets. This paper uses GLA per capita to assess the supply of the retail space across 58 metropolitan areas in the United States. After a detailed descriptive analysis of the supply of retail space, we estimate GLA per capita for each metropolitan area using a modified version of the stock adjustment model. Initial findings indicate that the retail construction boom of the 1980s was not a boom at all and that GLA per capita can be predicted using a multi-factor model.

A Simulation Analysis of the Relationship between Retail Sales and Shopping Center Rents

This article examines the variation in rents per square foot among regional shopping centers in the United States in response to variation in retail sales per square foot. The analysis breaks new ground by treating base and percentage rents as endogenous functions of retail sales. The analysis further distinguishes between de facto, if not de jure, fixed and percentage leases, and between new versus existing leases. Simulation results suggest that shopping center rents can easily increase in the short-run as retail sales decrease, or they can easily decrease as retail sales increase. In addition, the results suggest that shopping center rents per square foot generally react more aggressively to an increase in retail sales per square foot over time than to a decrease in retail sales per square foot, all else equal.

A Descriptive Analysis of U.S. Housing Demand for the 1990s

We analyze the effect of changes in type of household formation (i.e., single person, single parent, married couple, etc.) on the demand for housing and segment income by household type to determine housing tenure. Using data disaggregated by household type, we forecast housing demand for the United States through the turn of the century. The results indicate that total housing demand for the decade will be 11.8 million units, of which 8.1 million will be owner-occupied will be renter-occupied.

The Evolution of Shopping Center Research: A Review and Analysis

Retail research has evolved over the past sixty years. Christaller's early work on central place theory, with its simplistic combination of range and threshold has been advanced to include complex consumer shopping patterns and retailer behavior in agglomerated retail centers. Hotelling's seminal research on competition in a spatial duopoly has been realized in the form of comparison shopping in regional shopping centers. The research that has followed Christaller and Hotelling has been as wide as it has been deep, including literature in geography, economics, finance, marketing, and real estate. In combination, the many extensions of central place theory and retail agglomeration economics have clearly enhanced the understanding of both retailer and consumer behavior. In addition to these two broad areas of shopping center research, two more narrowly focused areas of research have emerged. The most recent focus in the literature has been on the positive effects large anchor tenants have on smaller non-anchor tenant sales. These positive effects are referred to as retail demand externalities. Exploring the theoretical basis for the valuation of shopping centers has been another area of interest to researchers. The primary focus of this literature is based in the valuation of current and expected lease contracts.

Large-Scale Shopping Center Development Opportunities

This paper develops a model with cross-patronage effects between anchor tenant department stores and smaller non-anchor tenants to examine the development opportunities for large-scale shopping centers in the U.S. A major theme of the analysis is that large-scale shopping center development opportunities in the U.S. have been affected by demand changes brought about by rising income levels and the way individuals value and use time. Our analysis shows that these trends lead directly to increased development opportunities for large-scale shopping centers.

An Empirical Examination of Traditional Neighborhood Development

This study analyzes the impact of the new urbanism on single-family home prices. Specifically, we explore the price differential that homebuyers pay for houses in new urbanist developments relative to houses in conventional suburban developments. Using data on over 5,000 single-family home sales from 1994 to 1997 in three different neighborhoods, hedonic regression results reveal that consumers pay more for homes in new urbanist communities than those in conventional suburban developments. Further analyses indicate that the price premium is not attributable to differences in improvement age and other housing characteristics. Copyright 2001 by the American Real Estate and Urban Ecopnomics Assocaition.