Modelling energy demand in the buildings sector within the EU

In the on-going effort within the EU to tackle greenhouse gas emissions and secure future energy supplies, the buildings sector is often referred to as offering a large potential for energy savings. The aim of this thesis is to produce scenarios that highlight the parameters that affect the energy demands and thus potentials for savings of the building sector. Top-down and bottom-up approaches to modelling energy demand in EU buildings are applied in this thesis. The top-down approach uses econometrics to establish the historical contribution of various parameters to energy demands for space and water heating in the residential sectors of four EU countries. The bottom-up approach models the explicit impact of trends in energy efficiency improvement on total energy demand in the EU buildings stock. The two approaches are implemented independently, i.e., the results from the top-down studies do not feed into those from the bottom-up studies or vice versa. The explanatory variables used in the top-down approach are: energy prices; heating degree days, as a proxy for outdoor climate; a linear time trend, as a proxy for technology development; and the lag of energy demand, as a proxy for inertia in the system. In this case, inertia refers to the time it takes to replace space and water heating systems in reaction to price changes. The analysis gives long-term price elasticities of demand as follows: for France, -0.17; for Italy, -0.35; for Sweden, -0.27; and for the UK, -0.35. These results reveal that the price elasticity of demand for space and water heating is inelastic in each of these cases. Nonetheless, scenarios created for the period up to 2050 using these elasticities and an annual price increase of 3 % show that demand can be reduced by more than 1 % per year in France and Sweden and by less than 1 % per year in Italy and the UK. In the bottom-up modelling, varying rates for conversion efficiencies, heating standards for new buildings, end-use efficiency, and fuel mixes are applied in three scenarios. The rates for expansion of floor area and increases in living standards are the same for all the scenarios. The model outputs predict that if energy efficiency remains at the current level, then expansion of the building floor area and other increases in living standards would increase final energy demand in the EU by almost 70 % by 2050. The other two scenarios reveal the levels of improvements in efficiency that are needed to maintain energy demand at current rates or reduce it by 20 %. The results of the modelling provide a conceptual framework for the development of fiscal and regulatory policy decisions in relation to energy prices and various categories of energy efficiency measures, with the overall objective of meeting future demand for energy services of the building sector within the EU in a sustainable manner

Planning a Dublin–Belfast Economic Corridor: Networks, engagement and creating opportunities

Cross-border cooperation on the island of Ireland has a long history, if often a limited scope. The emergence of statutory North/South bodies after the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement of 1998 added a new dynamic. This paper argues that the further development of the Dublin–Belfast Economic Corridor will require key stakeholders to engage widely, not only with a private sector whose rationale will be greater levels of commercial activity along the Corridor but also with others who will bring additional agendas into discussion, including sustainability and quality of life. Political engagement will also be critical to ensure that the top-down support, in terms of investment and alignment with other policy priorities, is present. The framework for this collaboration is already in place, something that was absent in the 1990s

Exploring the role of Transport Infrastructure in a low-carbon World

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Transport infrastructure costs in low-carbon pathways

International audienceThe rate and manner in which transport infrastructure (e.g. roads, railway tracks, airports) is deployed, will play an important role in determining energy demand, greenhouse gas emissions and the economic impact of the transport sector. This paper describes an exercise where the costs of infrastructure deployment for the transport sector have been incorporated into the IMACLIM-R Global E3 IAM. In addition to adding these costs, the modelling of the criteria for the deployment of infrastructure for roads has also been improved. It is found that this model recalibration results in a more accurate baseline as compared to historically observed data (2001–2013) for investments in energy demand, road infrastructure, and passenger kilometers travelled. Regarding macroeconomic effects, it is found that the imposition of a carbon emission trajectory to 2100 cause GDP to decrease relative to the newly calibrated baseline – this is a standard IAM result. However, when the deployment of infrastructure for roads and air travel is further constrained, the GDP loss is less than with a fixed carbon emission trajectory only. This is because early restriction of infrastructure for roads and air travel allows an expansion of public transport infrastructure which is adequate to meet low-carbon transport service demand whereas when less public transport infrastructure is available, more costly mitigation investments must be made in other parts of the economy. This suggests that restricting infrastructure deployment as a complementary policy to carbon pricing, lowers the cost of mitigatio

Modelling the role of Transport Infrastructure in a low-carbon World

International audienc

A top-down approach to modelling national energy demand: example of residential sector space heating

Decomposition and econometrics are used to model future energy demand forresidential sector space heating, in the context of the development of the economy.The objective of this modelling work is to assess the roles of national trendsin personal income, energy prices, carbon taxes, and general energy efficiencyimprovements. The outputs should provide an alternative yet complementaryperspective on the development of energy demand to that obtained from modelsthat focus on bottom-up technologies, se e.g., Chapter 14

A top-down approach to modelling national energy demand: example of residential sector space heating

Decomposition and econometrics are used to model future energy demand forresidential sector space heating, in the context of the development of the economy.The objective of this modelling work is to assess the roles of national trendsin personal income, energy prices, carbon taxes, and general energy efficiencyimprovements. The outputs should provide an alternative yet complementaryperspective on the development of energy demand to that obtained from modelsthat focus on bottom-up technologies, se e.g., Chapter 14