A contribution to evaluate the impact of global value chains

Doutoramento em EconomiaWith globalization, firms changed the way they trade and interact. However, we still look at these flows with statistics of international trade that are considered inadequate or insufficient to understand this new reality. In this context, we contribute to evaluate one of the main aspects of globalization, namely the impact of Global Value Chains (GVCs). Firstly, we make use of the 2013 World Input-Output Database (WIOD) to estimate: (a) the participation of 40 major developed and emerging economies in GVCs between 1995 and 2011; (b) the most significant GVCs worldwide per sector, measured according to the value of the inputs internationally traded; and (c) the impact the international trade of inputs within GVCs in a given economy, both in terms of income and of employment, taking the example of the Portuguese economy. Secondly, we will propose four new indicators to measure the country-impact of GVCs, two related to the income transfer and two related to the labor content of the international trade of inputs, to estimate GVC-embeddedness and GVC-related net gains of countries. We will present the value-added of our indicators when compared to those found in the literature. Thirdly, we will run a pooled-regression model to estimate the main determinants of bilateral outflow stocks of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The regression shows that bilateral FDI inflow stocks are positively associated to the total income transferred between countries due to GVC-related bilateral trade of inputs, taken as a proxy to the degree of the embeddedness of those countries in GVCs, but not to the net gains of “transferred” income, taken as a proxy to an unbalanced participation in GVCs.A globalização causou alterações profundas na forma como as empresas comerciam e interagem. Contudo, continuamos a olhar para esta nova realidade com ferramentas e estatísticas que são inadequadas ou insuficientes para a compreender. Neste contexto, esta tese contribui para analisar um dos aspetos mais relevantes da globalização, designadamente o impacto das Cadeias de Valor Globais (CVG). Em primeiro lugar, fazemos uso da base de dados World Input-Output Database, lançada em 2013, para estimar (a) a participação de 40 economias desenvolvidas e emergentes em CVG entre 1995 e 2011; (b) as CVG mais relevantes a nível mundial, por setor, em termos do valor dos inputs internacionalmente transacionados; e (c) o impacto do comércio internacional de inputs originado por CVG numa determinada economia, quer em termos de rendimento, quer de emprego, tomando o exemplo da economia portuguesa. Em segundo lugar, propomos quatro novos indicadores para medir o impacto-país das CVG: dois relacionados com a transferência de rendimento e dois relacionados com o conteúdo em emprego do comércio internacional de inputs. Os indicadores propostos estimam o grau de inserção dos países em CVG e os ganhos líquidos que delas retiram. A aplicação empírica dos indicadores é acompanhada pela justificação da sua mais-valia face aos principais índices encontrados na literatura. Em terceiro lugar, criamos um modelo de regressão agrupada que estima os determinantes do stock bilateral de saída de Investimento Direto no Estrangeiro (IDE). A regressão mostra que os stocks de IDE estão positivamente associados à transferência total de rendimento gerado pelo comércio bilateral de inputs induzidos pelas CVG, entendida como proxy do grau de inserção nessas cadeias, mas não aos ganhos líquidos de rendimento transferido, entendidos como proxy de uma participação desequilibrada em CVG.N/

The eastern enlargement of the European Union and the cohesion countries: commodity composition of trade in manufactures and trade potential

Mestrado em Economia e Estudos EuropeusIn order to evaluate the trade potential of the Cohesion Countries (CC) with the remaining EU11 countries in the threshold of the eastern enlargement of the European Union, as well as with the CC relations with the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC), we use a gravity model. The manufacturing trade potential related to the twenty-five countries involved in the eastern enlargement of the EU15 is hence calculated from 1999 to 2002. Special attention is paid to this enlargement's effect on the CC within this approach. Relatively to previous studies with this same methodological approach, this dissertation is, to the best of our knowledge, the first combining a trade potential based on the gravity model with the inclusion of a variable related to the Commodity Composition of Trade (CCT) in terms of manufactures. Several CCT variables were tested for the available data, taking into consideration high levels of disaggregation. Finally, having in consideration the latest academic debate in course, we analysed and tested all the methodological contributions recently proposed in the literature as regards to the improvement of the econometric specification of the gravity model, namely making use of the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimator. The refinement of the explanatory variables considered in the analysis, specifically those related to the distance measurement, as well as the introduction of new variables, were also taken into consideration.Com o intuito de avaliar o potencial de comércio existente entre os Países da Coesão e os restantes países membros da UE15 no limiar do alargamento desta última a leste e, de igual forma, entre os PC e os denominados como Países da Europa Central e Oriental (PECO), fazemos uso de um modelo gravitacional. Assim, o potencial de comércio em termos de manufacturas relacionado com os vinte e cinco países envolvidos no processo do alargamento a Leste da UE15 foi calculado, nesta dissertação, no que diz respeito ao período que medeia entre 1999 e 2002. Neste contexto, especial atenção foi colocada nos efeitos específicos deste alargamento nos Países da Coesão. Relativamente aos estudos prévios que fazem uso desta mesma abordagem metodológica, esta dissertação é, segundo a nossa percepção, a primeira a combinar o cálculo do potencial de comércio, tendo por base um modelo gravitacional, com a inclusão, neste último, de uma variável relativa à Composição do Comércio em Manufacturas (CCM). Vários indicadores da CCM foram, a este respeito, testados a partir dos dados disponíveis e fazendo uso de níveis detalhados de decomposição. Finalmente, aprofundar-se-á o debate em curso, quer em termos empíricos, quer em termos académicos, através da análise e teste das mais recentes contribuições propostas no que diz respeito à melhoria da especificação econométrica do modelo gravitacional, nomeadamente com recurso ao Pseudo-estimador de Máxima Verosimilhança do Tipo Poisson. O refinamento das variáveis explicativas consideradas na análise, especificamente aquelas relacionadas com a mensuração da variável distância, e a introdução de novas variáveis foram igualmente abordadas

Ready or not? The ultimate push of Timor-Leste to join ASEAN

A persistent concern raised by member states of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) is that Timor-Leste’s readiness for membership is not enough, as Dili, the smallest economy in Southeast Asia, may not be able to sign and implement key commitments, nor to participate in all ASEAN institutions and work programmes. Since its formal request for membership in 2011, Timor-Leste has recently stepped up its efforts for ASEAN membership, with the initial technical support of the Japan International Cooperation Agency and, particularly, the enhanced support of the Asian Development Bank. In 2019, there has been a step change in momentum towards accession, with clear ASEAN statements signalling progress in this regard. The first ever ASEAN fact-finding mission to Timor-Leste to assess the country’s potential for membership concluded successfully in September 2019. Two more fact-finding missions are planned for 2020. We assess in this paper Timor-Leste’s readiness for membership in the three pillars of the ASEAN community: economic, socio-cultural, and political security. In particular, we assess how recent developments address the concerns historically raised by some ASEAN member states about Timor-Leste’s membership. We conclude that the Cambodian and, particularly, the Indonesian presidencies of the ASEAN in 2022 and 2023 could be an important landmark for Timor-Leste’s accession to the Association.Uma preocupação persistente levantada pelos estados-membros da Associação das Nações do Sudeste Asiático (ASEAN) é que a disponibilidade de Timor-Leste para a adesão não é suficiente, uma vez que Díli, a mais pequena economia do Sudeste Asiático, pode não ser capaz de assinar e implementar compromissos-chave, nem de participar em todas as instituições e programas de trabalho da ASEAN. Desde o seu pedido formal de adesão em 2011, Timor-Leste intensificou recentemente os seus esforços de adesão à ASEAN, com o apoio técnico inicial da Agência de Cooperação Internacional do Japão e, em particular, com o apoio reforçado do Banco Asiático de Desenvolvimento. Em 2019, registou-se uma mudança de ritmo no sentido da adesão, com declarações claras da ASEAN a assinalar progressos a este respeito. A primeira missão de averiguação da ASEAN a Timor-Leste para avaliar o potencial de adesão do país foi concluída com êxito em Setembro de 2019. Estão previstas mais duas missões de apuramento de factos para 2020. Neste documento, avaliamos o grau de preparação de Timor-Leste para se tornar membro dos três pilares da comunidade ASEAN: segurança económica, sócio-cultural e política. Em particular, avaliamos a forma como os recentes desenvolvimentos abordam as preocupações historicamente levantadas por alguns estados-membros da ASEAN sobre a adesão de Timor-Leste. Concluímos que as presidências cambojana e, em particular, indonésia da ASEAN em 2022 e 2023 poderão ser um marco importante para a adesão de Timor-Leste à Associação.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Psicología Analítica

Abstract not availabl

Labour content of international trade in intermediates : the case of Portugal

This paper addresses the job content with regards to Portugal’s participation in the international fragmentation of production. Labour is considered both at the overall level and also by skills (high-skill, medium-skill, and low-skill). The assessment makes use of the World Input Output Database complemented by the Socio Economic Accounts for labour skill-types. The period analysed is the longest possible, bearing in mind the information available in the data bases used. The amount of labour (jobs) required to produce imported intermediates (exported intermediates) is taken as a proxy for the job effect of downward (upward) participation of the country in Global Value Chains. On one hand, we conclude that exports of intermediates were mostly intensive in the use of low-skilled labour, despite the skill upgrading observed over the period analysed. On the other hand, imports of intermediates were proportionally more intensive in the use of skilled labour, predominantly at the medium skill level, which is an expected result from a country where low-skilled labour is abundant. We also concluded that the estimated net job content embodied in the international trade of intermediates at the end of the period under analysis was, globally, negative to the amount of 51,000 jobs. Regional impacts arising from sectoral gains or losses in the job content of ex ported intermediates do not appear to have been relevant. .Este artigo analisa o conteúdo em mão-deobra do comércio português de bens intermédios exportados e importados. A mão de obra, medida em número de empregos, é considerada no seu conjunto e desagregada por níveis de qualificação (alto, médio ou baixo). A análise recorre à primeira versão da base de dados World InputOutput Database, complementada com as SocioEconomic Accounts desagregadas por níveis de qualificação da mão-de-obra. O período da análise é o mais amplo permitido pela base de dados. O número de empregos necessário para produzir bens intermédios importados (exportados) é usado como proxy do efeito na mão-de-obra da participação a jusante (montante) da economia portuguesa em cadeias de valor globais. Concluímos que, no período analisado, a exportação de bens intermédios é em grande medida intensiva em mão-de-obra pouco qualificada, como expectável num país abundante em emprego pouco qualificado, apesar da melhoria observada nos níveis de qualificação. Concluímos também que a importação de bens intermédios é proporcionalmente mais intensiva em mão-de- obra qualificada, predominantemente de nível médio. O conteúdo líquido em mão-de-obra estimado a partir do comércio internacional de bens intermédios foi negativo em 51 mil empregos no final do período analisado. Os impactos regionais na mão-de-obra em Portugal decorrentes da exportação de bens intermédios não parecem ter sido significativos, atendendo aos ganhos e perdas por sector.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Who benefits from the procurement financed by multilateral development banks?

We use a gravity model to inquire about the factors that influence the amount of public procurement awarded by developing countries with funding from Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), based on 169 000 contracts. We reach four main conclusions. First, procurement disproportionately benefits firms of low- and middle-income countries and not those of MDBs' larger shareholders. Second, firms of uppermiddle- income countries can compete successfully with those of developed countries. These two conclusions are in line with MDBs' development mandate. However, we also find that certain MDBs favour domestic firms and that having good diplomatic relations matters when awarding contracts.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Labour content of international trade in intermediates : the case of Portugal

This paper addresses the relation between international trade and employment in Portugal with regard to the labour content of trade in intermediates. It considers both the overall level of employment and labour disaggregated by skills (high-skill, medium-skill and low-skill). The assessment makes use of the newly developed internationally linked inputoutput (IO) database named World Input-Output Database (WIOD), complemented with the Socio-Economic Accounts (SEA) for skill-types of labour. The period analysed – 1995-2009 - is the longest possible taking into account the two databases used. The amount of labour required to produce imported intermediates (exported intermediates) is taken as a proxy to the job effect of downward (upward) embeddedness of the country into Global Value Chains (GVCs). We conclude that intermediates’ exports are basically intensive in low-skilled labour although presenting a tendency to skill-upgrading during the period analysed, while intermediates’ imports are proportionally much more intensive in skilled labour, predominantly of a medium skill level, an expected result in a country of an intermediate level of development. We also concluded that the estimated net labour content of jobs in trade in intermediates in the final year of the period analysed was globally negative in 51 thousand jobs. Main net losses were observed with Brazil, People’s Republic of China and India, while main net gains were observed with Spain and France.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Foreign direct investment determinants revisited in the context of global value chains

In this paper, we aim at contributing to the new field of research that intends to bring up-to-date the tools and statistics currently used to look to the current reality given by Global Value Chains (GVC) in international trade and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Namely, we make use of the most recent data published by the World Input-Output Database to suggest indicators to measure the participation and net gains of countries by being a part of GVC; and use those indicators in a pooled-regression model to estimate determinants of FDI stocks in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)-member countries. We conclude that one of the measures proposed proves to be statistically significant in explaining the bilateral stock of FDI in OECD countries, meaning that the higher the transnational income generated between two given countries by GVC, taken as a proxy to the participation of those countries in GVC, the higher one could expect the FDI entering those countries to be. The regression also shows the negative impact of the global financial crisis that started in 2009 in the world’s bilateral FDI stocks and, additionally, the particular and significant role played by the People’s Republic of China in determining these stocks.Financial support from national funds by FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia) under grant SFRH/BD/71528/2010 and the strategic project UID/ECO/00436/201

Global value chains assessment in the 2000s : an approach with income transfers

In this paper, we make use of recent data published by the World Input-Output Database to (i) measure the degree of total and net “transferred” gains of major Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)-member countries and emerging economies by being part of a Global Value Chain (GVC) with two incomerelated indicators built for this purpose and (ii) capture whether the bilateral degree of GVC insertion of this group of countries, measured with the proposed indicators, contributes to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows in the 2000s. The pooled regression model estimated shows that bilateral FDI inflows, controlling for other possible FDI determinants, are positively associated to the total “transferred” income generated by GVC-induced bilateral trade of inputs, taken as a proxy to the degree of GVC-embeddedness of those countries, while correlation with GVC-associated net gains was not confirmed. The regression also shows the negative impact of the global financial crisis of 2008-9 and the significant role played by the People’s Republic of China on FDI inflowsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Exploring the Interplay between CAD and FreeFem++ as an Energy Decision-Making Tool for Architectural Design

The energy modelling software tools commonly used for architectural purposes do not allow a straightforward real-time implementation within the architectural design programs. In addition, the surrounding exterior spaces of the building, including the inner courtyards, hardly present a specific treatment distinguishing these spaces from the general external temperature in the thermal simulations. This is a clear disadvantage when it comes to streamlining the design process in relation to the whole-building energy optimization. In this context, the present study aims to demonstrate the advantages of the FreeFem++ open source program for performing simulations in architectural environments. These simulations include microclimate tests that describe the interactions between a building architecture and its local exterior. The great potential of this mathematical tool can be realized through its complete system integration within CAD (Computer-Aided Design) software such as SketchUp or AutoCAD. In order to establish the suitability of FreeFem++ for the performance of simulations, the most widely employed energy simulation tools able to consider a proposed architectural geometry in a specific environment are compared. On the basis of this analysis, it can be concluded that FreeFem++ is the only program displaying the best features for the thermal performance simulation of these specific outdoor spaces, excluding the currently unavailable easy interaction with architectural drawing programs. The main contribution of this research is, in fact, the enhancement of FreeFem++ usability by proposing a simple intuitive method for the creation of building geometries and their respective meshing (pre-processing). FreeFem++ is also considered a tool for data analysis (post-processing) able to help engineers and architects with building energy-efficiency-related tasks