Exploring the Relation between Realised Volatility and Trading Volume: Evidence from International Stock Market

Objective: The sequential information theory and mixed distribution hypothesis contends that there exists a bi-directional relation between realised volatility and trading volume. This position has led to the proposition that new information spreads sequentially and reaches market participants at varying times. The purpose of this study was to re-examine these theories. Research Design & Methods: A Granger causality test, Mean Square Error and Mean Average error models were applied to investigate the relationship between realised volatility and trading volume for a sample of five international stock markets from March 5, 2018, to March 5, 2023. Findings: The findings of this study contradict the proposition put forth by the sequential information theory and mixed distribution hypothesis where no meaningful relationship was observed between realised volatility and trading volume except for the CAC 40. Hence, new information rather filters through financial markets at the same time. This finding maybe the explanation for the ever-increasing financial contagion between financial markets. Contribution & Value Added: Traders may need to rely on other indicators and adjust their strategies to incorporate different signals or factors that are more relevant for predicting or identifying market movements. It may become more challenging to gauge the liquidity conditions in the market based solely on volatility. Market participants may need to rely on other liquidity indicators, such as bid-ask spreads, order book depth, or trade size distribution, to assess market liquidity

Evidence of Adaptive Market Hypothesis in International Financial Markets

Objective: Traditional finance emphasises market efficiency and inherent behavioural anomalies in investors. However, the emergence of the adaptive market hypothesis tends to suggest otherwise. The adaptive market hypothesis challenges market efficiency and behavioural finance by contesting that investors and market participants adapt to changing market environment. In essence, investors learn from their mistakes. The purpose of this study was to explore the concept of an adaptive market hypothesis in five international markets, namely, the JSE, CAC 40, NASDAQ, JPX-NIKKEI and DAX. Method: This study used a variance ratio test to explore the adaptive market hypothesis from January 2017 to April 2022. Results: the findings revealed the existence of adaptive markets in the CAC 40 and NASDAQ during the period under review. Conversely, there was no statistical evidence to support the adaptive concept in the JSE, JPX-NIKKEI, and the DAX. Originality/relevance: The implications of these findings is that investors in the CAC 40 and NASDAQ should consider active volatility scaling because of multiple betas, and hence fundamental analysis is worth the time.  This study adds to the literature on adaptive markets hypothesis as well as market efficiency and behavioural finance. Keywords: Adaptive markets; market efficiency; behavioural finance; financial markets; variance ratio

Stock Market Liquidity during Periods of Distress and its Implications: Evidence from International Financial Markets

Traditional market pricing models assume frictionless markets with abundant liquidity. This traditional models also incorporate stock market liquidity as an exogenous cost. However, this paradigm has many shortcomings due to its inability to explain some of the problems associated with security market illiquidity. The aim of this study was to explore the concept of stock market liquidity during periods of financial distress. A Markov switching GARCH model was used to investigate market liquidity in the CAC 40, DAX, JSE, Nasdaq Index and the Nikkei-225 during the 2007-2008 financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. The sample period was January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021 and December 1, 2007 to June 30, 2009. From the findings, some financial markets where still liquid despite the financial crisis with the exception of the Nasdaq index. Conversely, all the financial markets under consideration displayed strong illiquidity during the covid-19 pandemic. In essence, the level of market depth has significantly decreased from the financial crisis to the covid-19 pandemic which may be attributed to increasing margin requirements and information asymmetry as well as price restrictions. There is an urgent need for regulatory authorities to review some of the trading regulations during financial distress

VOLATILITY PERSISTENCE IN INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS IN THE POST COVID-19 ERA

The long-term behaviour of stock markets are of significant importance to asset managers and financial experts due to its direct link with security price valuation. Volatility persistence has a significant impact on the returns of security prices due to its time varying properties. However, there is no real meaningful effect of current volatility on future security prices and returns if the volatility is transitory and not persistent. The aim of this study was to explore conditional volatility properties and determine whether the current volatile environment would persist in the JSE, S&P 500, Nasdaq Index, SSE, CAC 40 and DAX markets. Using a GARCH 1.1 model and a Markov switching model, the findings revealed that volatility would persist in the JSE, S&P 500, Nasdaq Index, SSE, CAC 40, and the DAX from their ARCH and GARCH coefficients, as well as the delay parameters. In addition, the effects of past volatility in the Nasdaq, CAC 40, and DAX would remain in the forecast of variance. A diversified and broader investment approach should be used in the JSE, S&P 500, Nasdaq Index, SSE, CAC 40, and DAX indexes to mitigate risk, and portfolio formation should not concentrate on any sector or asset classes

Detecting the Herding Behaviour in the South African Stock Market and its Implications

Herd mentality is associated with financial market bubbles and crises and is not a new concept. Despite the dotcom bubble in the late 90’s and the recent real estate bubble, investors still have the tendency to see irrational decision as rational. Thus the aim of this study was to investigate the presence of herding in the Johannesburg stock exchange during the Covid-19 pandemic. Studies conducted in other markets have detected the presence of herding which sends strong signal of issues that may arise in financial markets. Using a sample period from 02 January 2020 to 31 December 2021 and a cross sectional absolute deviation as an analysis tool, the findings reveals a significant presence of herding in the Johannesburg stock exchange. The main implications to this finding is that momentum investing strategies is more suitable for the Johannesburg Stock exchange and exploring past price movements may provide valuable insights on expected future price movement

Investigating the weekend anomaly and its implications : evidence from international financial markets

PURPOSE: As contended in prior literature, the weekend anomaly is the tendency for financial markets or security prices to be lower on Mondays than on previous Fridays. The aim of this study was to empirically investigate the weekend anomaly in seven international financial markets namely; NASDAQ Index, CAC 40 Index, DAX Index, JPX-Nikkei Index 400, SSE Index, BIST and JSE Index.METHODOLOGY: This study made use of the F- statistics test for the most recent 5 years August 22, 2017 to August 22, 2022.FINDINGS: Contrary to the findings in the literature, there is no evidence to support the weekend anomaly. This was evident in the pvalues for the F-statistics test in all the financial markets under consideration to be statistically insignificant.ORIGINALITY/VALUE: Although this concept may have existed, it is no longer applicable hence traders and market participants should avoid regular or pure arbitrage strategy as it may result in significant losses. As per the author’s knowledge, this study is the first to empirically investigate the weekend anomaly in seven international markets using the most recent data.peer-reviewe

Investigating causality and market contagion during periods of financial distress and its implications

PURPOSE: A notable observation in the literature of financial markets is the debate on market contagion and causality. During periods of financial distress, global financial markets experience record low market prices partly due to the spread of fear. It was therefore necessary to investigate market contagions using causality relationships during periods of financial distress.METHODOLOGY: A unit root test, Granger causality and Test for equality of means was used as the blueprint. The sample periods where December 1, 2007 to June 30, 2009 and January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021.FINDINGS: Contrary to the perceptions that prevails in most stock markets during distress, there was little empirical evidence to support market contagions. Although very few markets are indeed related.ORIGINALITY/VALUE: The implications of this study extends the efficient market hypothesis concept to market efficiency during periods of financial distress. It is evident that financial markets display greater efficiencies during periods of financial distress. This study is the first to investigate market contagion during periods of distress as per author’s knowledge.peer-reviewe