Accounting for Extreme Events in the Economic Assessment of Climate Change

Extreme events are one of the main channels through which climate and socio- economic systems interact. It is likely that climate change will modify their probability distributions and their consequences. The long-term growth models used in climate change assessments, however, cannot capture the effects of short-term shocks; they thus model extreme events in a very crude manner. To assess the importance of this limitation, a non-equilibrium dynamic model (NEDyM) is used to model the macroeconomic consequences of extreme events. Its conclusions are the following: (i) Dynamic processes multiply the extreme event direct costs by a factor 20; half of this increase comes from short-term processes; (ii) A possible modication of the extreme event distribution due to climate change can be responsible for significant GDP losses; (iii) The production losses caused by extreme events depend, with strong non-linearity, both on the changes in the extreme distribution and on the ability to fund the rehabilitation after each disaster. These conclusions illustrate that the economic assessment of climate change does not only depend on beliefs on climate change but also on beliefs on the economy. Moreover, they suggest that averaging short-term processes like extreme events over the five- or ten-year time step of a classical long-term growth model can lead to inaccurately low assessments of the climate change damages

Making Capitalism Work: Social Capital and Economic Growth in Italy, 1970-1995

Using data on the 20 Italian regions for the period 1970-1995, I examine whether the presence of social capital, as reflected in a number of different measures collected by Putnam (1993), affects economic productivity. I find three types of effects. First, social capital, when treated as an input to regional production, has a positive and significant effect in the South, but a much weaker effect in the North. Second, some forms of social capital can significantly increase regions propensities to make physical capital investments; however, dense networks of association reduce capital investment in both the North and South. Instrumental variables estimates show that social capital affects growth both directly and through affecting investment in physical capital. Third, social capital contributes positively to the rate of total factor productivity growth in the Italian regions

Science, technology, engineering and mathematics enrolment patterns and factors influencing the choice to study science among female secondary school students in Nigeria

Access to education has been listed as one of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG4). Achieving this goal, however, is predicated upon the elimination of widely prevalent gender disparities in education. In this report, we first examine the differences in enrolment in STEM-related courses between the genders then we proceed to explore the factors that may affect the choice of STEM in pre-university female students in Ogun state, Nigeria. Two publicly available datasets, the Joint Admissions Matriculation Board (JAMB) enrolment data for 2012 – 2015 and data on the performance of students enrolled in Covenant University from 2010-2014 were used in this study. A survey of pre-university students in Ogun state, to examine factors that influence career choice was also conducted and used in this study. Our findings showed that men were more likely to be enrolled in a STEM discipline than women. This disparity was, however, not observed for non-STEM disciplines were both genders were equally likely to be enrolled. Responses from our survey of female secondary school students showed that a good number (47.6%) were not confident to take pre-university STEM subjects and were likely to enrol in non-STEM courses at the university. These findings emphasise the need to sensitise junior secondary school level girls to take on more technical courses in a bid to have adequate representation across the STEM disciplines. (Afr J Reprod Health 2021; 25[5s]: 91-97)

Computational models for improving surveillance for the early detection of direct introduction of cassava brown streak disease in Nigeria.

Acknowledgements: We thank Joseph Onyeka for additional assistance collecting survey data on whitefly abundance.Cassava is a key source of calories for smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa but its role as a food security crop is threatened by the cross-continental spread of cassava brown streak disease (CBSD) that causes high yield losses. In order to mitigate the impact of CBSD, it is important to minimise the delay in first detection of CBSD after introduction to a new country or state so that interventions can be deployed more effectively. Using a computational model that combines simulations of CBSD spread at both the landscape and field scales, we model the effectiveness of different country level survey strategies in Nigeria when CBSD is directly introduced. We find that the main limitation to the rapid CBSD detection in Nigeria, using the current survey strategy, is that an insufficient number of fields are surveyed in newly infected Nigerian states, not the total number of fields surveyed across the country, nor the limitation of only surveying fields near a road. We explored different strategies for geographically selecting fields to survey and found that early and consistent CBSD detection will involve confining candidate survey fields to states where CBSD has not yet been detected and where survey locations are allocated in proportion to the density of cassava crops, detects CBSD sooner, more consistently, and when the epidemic is smaller compared with distributing surveys uniformly across Nigeria

From the Theory of the Firm to FDI and Internalisation: A Survey

This paper surveys recent contributions on the Internalisation issue, based on different theories of the firm, to show how the make-or-buy decision, at an international level, has been assessed through the opening up of the black box - traditionally explored by the theorists of the firm and the simultaneous endogenization of the market environment as in the International Economics tradition. In particular, we consider three Archetypes Grossman-Hart-Moore treatment of hold-up and contractual incompleteness, Holmstrom-Milgrom view of the firm as an incentive system, Aghion-Tirole conceptualisation of formal and real authority in organisations and show how they have been embedded in industry and general equilibrium models of FDI to explain the boundaries of global firms