Hydrogeological conceptual model building and testing: A review

© 2018 Elsevier BV. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ This author accepted manuscript is made available following 24 month embargo from date of publication (December 2018) in accordance with the publisher’s archiving policyHydrogeological conceptual models are collections of hypotheses describing the understanding of groundwater systems and they are considered one of the major sources of uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport modelling. A common method for characterizing the conceptual uncertainty is the multi-model approach, where alternative plausible conceptual models are developed and evaluated. This review aims to give an overview of how multiple alternative models have been developed, tested and used for predictions in the multi-model approach in international literature and to identify the remaining challenges. The review shows that only a few guidelines for developing the multiple conceptual models exist, and these are rarely followed. The challenge of generating a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive range of plausible models is yet to be solved. Regarding conceptual model testing, the reviewed studies show that a challenge remains in finding data that is both suitable to discriminate between conceptual models and relevant to the model objective. We argue that there is a need for a systematic approach to conceptual model building where all aspects of conceptualization relevant to the study objective are covered. For each conceptual issue identified, alternative models representing hypotheses that are mutually exclusive should be defined. Using a systematic, hypothesis based approach increases the transparency in the modelling workflow and therefore the confidence in the final model predictions, while also anticipating conceptual surprises. While the focus of this review is on hydrogeological applications, the concepts and challenges concerning model building and testing are applicable to spatio-temporal dynamical environmental systems models in general

Neural network predictions of drawdown from groundwater abstraction in the Egebjerg catchment, Denmark

Results from numerical simulations play a vital role in the decision process of everyday groundwater management. However, these simulations can be time-consuming for large-scale investigations, and it can be necessary to apply approximate methods instead.This study investigates the abilities of a neural network to replicate simulated drawdown from groundwater abstraction in a numerical groundwater model of the Egebjerg catchment, Denmark. We follow a generalised methodology that uses the information within the deterministic numerical model to create a training set for the neural network to learn from and extend the method to work in a 3D Danish groundwater model case. We compare the abilities of the trained neural network with the results of conventional computations in terms of speed and accuracy and argue that this approach has the potential to improve decision support for decision-makers within groundwater management

Endoparasites of the raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) and the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) in Denmark 2009–2012 – A comparative study

Invasive species negatively influence the biodiversity of the ecosystems they invade and may introduce pathogens to native species. Raccoon dogs have very successfully invaded Europe, including, recently, Denmark. This study included analyses of gastrointestinal helminths and Trichinella spp. from 99 raccoon dogs and 384 native red foxes collected from October 2009 to March 2012. The sedimentation and counting method used revealed that raccoon dogs and foxes harboured 9 and 13 different helminth species, respectively, of which several known to be zoonotic. Significantly more nematode and cestode species were found in foxes while raccoon dogs had more trematode species. Rodent transmitted parasites were more prevalent in foxes, while amphibian transmitted parasites were more prevalent in raccoon dogs. One fox was infected with Echinococcus multilocularis (0.3%), while no Trichinella spp. were detected in raccoon dogs or foxes. The trematode Brachylaima tokudai was detected for the first time in Denmark in five of 384 foxes (1.3%). Prevalences of Pygidiopsis summa (3.0% and 3.4%) and Cryptocotyle spp. (15.2% and 15.4%) were comparable in raccoon dogs and foxes, respectively. Four helminth species were more prevalent in foxes than in raccoon dogs: Toxocara canis (60.9% and 13.1%); Uncinaria stenocephala (84.1% and 48.5%); Mesocestoides spp. (42.7% and 23.2%); and Taenia spp. (30.7% and 2.0%), respectively. Three helminth species were more prevalent in raccoon dogs than in foxes: Dipylidium caninum (5.1% and 0.3%); Mesorchis denticulatus (38.4% and 4.2%); and Alaria alata (69.7% and 34.4%), respectively. T. canis was more abundant in foxes while A. alata was more abundant in raccoon dogs. The intestinal distribution of a number of helminth species was comparable between hosts, but highly variable between parasite species. Inherent biological factors and host invasion of new areas might have shaped these marked differences in helminth fauna between the invasive raccoon dog and the native red fox

Tumor-Tissue Expression of the Hyaluronic Acid Receptor RHAMM Predicts Histological Transformation in Follicular Lymphoma Patients

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Histological transformation remains the leading cause of death in patients diagnosed with follicular lymphoma (FL). To date, no clinical nor biological biomarkers have been identified to unequivocally predict patients in high risk of transformation. In this study, we investigated the predictive value of the hyaluronic acid receptors RHAMM and CD44. Expression levels of RHAMM were higher in patients with subsequent transformation and were associated with poorer outcome. ABSTRACT: Histological transformation (HT) remains the leading cause of mortality in follicular lymphoma (FL), underlining the need to identify reliable transformation predictors. The hyaluronic acid receptors CD44 and the receptor for hyaluronan mediated motility (RHAMM, also known as HMMR and CD168), have been shown to be involved in the pathogeneses of both solid tumors and hematological malignancies. In an attempt to improve risk stratification, expression of RHAMM and CD44 were evaluated by immunohistochemistry and digital image analysis in pre-therapeutic tumor-tissue biopsies from FL patients, either without (nt-FL, n = 34), or with (st-FL, n = 31) subsequent transformation, and in paired biopsies from the transformed lymphomas (tFL, n = 31). At the time of initial diagnosis, samples from st-FL patients had a higher expression of RHAMM compared with samples from nt-FL patients (p < 0.001). RHAMM expression further increased in tFL samples following transformation (p < 0.001). Evaluation of CD44 expression showed no differences in expression comparing nt-FL, st-FL, and tFL samples. Shorter transformation-free survival was associated with high tumoral and intrafollicular RHAMM expression, as well as with low intrafollicular CD44 expression (p = 0.002, p < 0.001, and p = 0.034, respectively). Our data suggest that high tumor-tissue RHAMM expression predicts the risk of shorter transformation-free survival in FL patients already at initial diagnosis

Coexisting BRAF-Mutated Langerhans Cell Histiocytosis and Primary Myelofibrosis with Shared JAK2 Mutation

Langerhans cell histiocytosis (LCH) is an infrequent disease, characterized by oligoclonal proliferation of immature myeloid-derived cells. However, the exact pathogenesis remains unknown. In rare cases, LCH is present in patients with concomitant myeloid proliferative neoplasms. Here, we describe a 69-year-old male, who presented with a maculopapular rash covering truncus, face, and scalp. A cutaneous ulcerating lesion on the right cheek led to a biopsy showing LCH. Lesional cells were BRAFV600E and JAK2V617F mutated. A bone marrow aspirate showed no infiltration of Langerhans cells, but alterations consistent with primary myelofibrosis (PMF) and a polymerase chain reaction test were positive for JAK2V617F. Our case highlights an uncommon condition of two hematological malignancies present in the same patient. The identification of the BRAFV600E mutation supports previous findings of this mutation in LCH. Interestingly, a JAK2V617F mutation was found in both LCH and PMF cells, indicating a possible clonal relationship between the two malignancies