Inferring Population Preferences via Mixtures of Spatial Voting Models

Understanding political phenomena requires measuring the political preferences of society. We introduce a model based on mixtures of spatial voting models that infers the underlying distribution of political preferences of voters with only voting records of the population and political positions of candidates in an election. Beyond offering a cost-effective alternative to surveys, this method projects the political preferences of voters and candidates into a shared latent preference space. This projection allows us to directly compare the preferences of the two groups, which is desirable for political science but difficult with traditional survey methods. After validating the aggregated-level inferences of this model against results of related work and on simple prediction tasks, we apply the model to better understand the phenomenon of political polarization in the Texas, New York, and Ohio electorates. Taken at face value, inferences drawn from our model indicate that the electorates in these states may be less bimodal than the distribution of candidates, but that the electorates are comparatively more extreme in their variance. We conclude with a discussion of limitations of our method and potential future directions for research.Comment: To be published in the 8th International Conference on Social Informatics (SocInfo) 201

Aggregation and Representation in the European Parliament Party Groups

While members of the European Parliament are elected in national constituencies, their votes are determined by the aggregation of MEPs in multinational party groups. The uncoordinated aggregation of national party programmes in multinational EP party groups challenges theories of representation based on national parties and parliaments. This article provides a theoretical means of understanding representation by linking the aggregation of dozens of national party programmes in different EP party groups to the aggregation of groups to produce the parliamentary majority needed to enact policies. Drawing on an original data source of national party programmes, the EU Profiler, the article shows that the EP majorities created by aggregating MEP votes in party groups are best explained by cartel theories. These give priority to strengthening the EP’s collective capacity to enact policies rather than voting in accord with the programmes they were nationally elected to represent

The mobilising effect of political choice

Political choice is central to citizens’ participation in elections. Nonetheless, little is known about the individual-level mechanisms that link political choice and turnout. It is argued in this article that turnout decisions are shaped not only by the differences between the parties (party polarisation), but also by the closeness of parties to citizens’ own ideological position (congruence), and that congruence matters more in polarised systems where more is at stake. Analysing cross-national survey data from 80 elections, it is found that both polarisation and congruence have a mobilising effect, but that polarisation moderates the effect of congruence on turnout. To further explore the causal effect of political choice, the arrival of a new radical right-wing party in Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), is leveraged and the findings show that the presence of the AfD had a mobilising effect, especially for citizens with congruent views

ADAM17-Mediated Processing of TNF-α Expressed by Antiviral Effector CD8+ T Cells Is Required for Severe T-Cell-Mediated Lung Injury

Influenza infection in humans evokes a potent CD8+ T-cell response, which is important for clearance of the virus but may also exacerbate pulmonary pathology. We have previously shown in mice that CD8+ T-cell expression of TNF-a is required for severe and lethal lung injury following recognition of an influenza antigen expressed by alveolar epithelial cells. Since TNF-a is first expressed as a transmembrane protein that is then proteolytically processed to release a soluble form, we sought to characterize the role of TNF-a processing in CD8+ T-cell-mediated injury. In this study we observed that inhibition of ADAM17-mediated processing of TNF-a by CD8+ T cells significantly attenuated the diffuse alveolar damage that occurs after T-cell transfer, resulting in enhanced survival. This was due in part to diminished chemokine expression, as TNF-aprocessing was required for lung epithelial cell expression of CXCL2 and the subsequent inflammatory infiltration. We confirmed the importance of CXCL2 expression in acute lung injury by transferring influenza-specific CD8+ T cells into transgenic mice lacking CXCR2. These mice exhibited reduced airway infiltration, attenuated lung injury, and enhanced survival. Theses studies describe a critical role for TNF-a processing by CD8+ T cells in the initiation and severity of acute lung injury, which may have important implications for limiting immunopathology during influenza infection and other human infectious or inflammatory diseases

CD(8+ )T lymphocytes in lung tissue from patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

BACKGROUND: Several studies have implicated a role of inflammation in the pathogenesis of lung damage in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Parenchymal lung damage leads to defects in mechanics and gas exchange and clinically manifests with exertional dyspnea. Investigations of inflammatory cells in IPF have shown that eosinophils, neutrophils and CD(8+ )TLs may be associated with worse prognosis. We wished to investigate by quantitative immunohistochemistry infiltrating macrophages, neutrophils and T lymphocytes (TLs) subpopulations (CD(3+), CD(4+ )and CD(8+)) in lung tissue of patients with IPF and their correlation with lung function indices and grade of dyspnoea. METHODS: Surgical biopsies of 12 patients with IPF were immunohistochemically stained with mouse monoclonal antibodies (anti-CD(68 )for macrophages, anti-elastase for neutrophils, and anti-CD(3), anti-CD(4), anti-CD(8 )for CD(3+)TLs, CD(4+)TLs, and CD(8+)TLs respectively). The number of positively stained cells was determined by observer-interactive computerized image analysis (SAMBA microscopic image processor). Cell numbers were expressed in percentage of immunopositive nuclear surface in relation to the total nuclear surface of infiltrative cells within the tissue (labeling Index). Correlations were performed between cell numbers and physiological indices [FEV(1), FVC, TLC, DLCO, PaO(2), PaCO(2 )and P(A-a)O(2))] as well as dyspnoea scores assessed by the Medical Research Council (MRC) scale. RESULTS: Elastase positive cells accounted for the 7.04% ± 1.1 of total cells, CD(68+ )cells for the 16.6% ± 2, CD(3+ )TLs for the 28.8% ± 7, CD(4+ )TLs for the 14.5 ± 4 and CD(8+ )TLs for the 13.8 ± 4. CD(8+)TLs correlated inversely with FVC % predicted (r(s )= -0.67, p = 0.01), TLC % predicted (r(s )= -0.68, p = 0.01), DLCO % predicted (r(s )= -0.61, p = 0.04), and PaO(2 )(r(s )= -0.60, p = 0.04). Positive correlations were found between CD(8+)TLs and P(A-a)O(2 )(r(s )= 0.65, p = 0.02) and CD(8+)TLs and MRC score (r(s )= 0.63, p = 0.02). Additionally, CD(68+ )cells presented negative correlations with both FVC % predicted (r(s )= -0.80, p = 0.002) and FEV(1 )% predicted (r(s )= -0.68, p = 0.01). CONCLUSION: In UIP/IPF tissue infiltrating mononuclear cells and especially CD(8+ )TLs are associated with the grade of dyspnoea and functional parameters of disease severity implicating that they might play a role in its pathogenesis

Discovering manipulated social choices: The coincidence of cycles and manipulated outcomes

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/45514/1/11127_2004_Article_BF00128879.pd

Effects of Low-Dose Drinking Water Arsenic on Mouse Fetal and Postnatal Growth and Development

© The Author(s), 2012. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in PLoS One 7 (2012): e38249, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0038249.Arsenic (As) exposure is a significant worldwide environmental health concern. Chronic exposure via contaminated drinking water has been associated with an increased incidence of a number of diseases, including reproductive and developmental effects. The goal of this study was to identify adverse outcomes in a mouse model of early life exposure to low-dose drinking water As (10 ppb, current U.S. EPA Maximum Contaminant Level). C57B6/J pups were exposed to 10 ppb As, via the dam in her drinking water, either in utero and/or during the postnatal period. Birth outcomes, the growth of the F1 offspring, and health of the dams were assessed by a variety of measurements. Birth outcomes including litter weight, number of pups, and gestational length were unaffected. However, exposure during the in utero and postnatal period resulted in significant growth deficits in the offspring after birth, which was principally a result of decreased nutrients in the dam's breast milk. Cross-fostering of the pups reversed the growth deficit. Arsenic exposed dams displayed altered liver and breast milk triglyceride levels and serum profiles during pregnancy and lactation. The growth deficits in the F1 offspring resolved following separation from the dam and cessation of exposure in male mice, but did not resolve in female mice up to six weeks of age. Exposure to As at the current U.S. drinking water standard during critical windows of development induces a number of adverse health outcomes for both the dam and offspring. Such effects may contribute to the increased disease risks observed in human populations.This work was supported by National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences at the National Institutes of Health grants 1F32 ES019070 (CDK-H) and P42 ES007373 (BPJ, JWH, RIE and CDK-H, Dartmouth Superfund Research Program Project Grant, Project 2 and Pilot Project)