An assessment of PenSim2

The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP)’s Pensim2 model is a dynamic microsimulation model. The principal purpose of this model is to estimate the future distribution of pensioner incomes, thus enabling analysis of the distributional effects of proposed changes to pension policy. This paper presents the results of an assessment of Pensim2 by researchers at the IFS. We start by looking at the overall structure of the model, and how it compares with other dynamic policy analysis models across the world. We make recommendations at this stage as to how the overall modelling strategy could be improved. We then go on to analyse the characteristics of most of the individual modules which make up Pensim2, examining the data used and the regression and predictions used in each step. The results from this examination are used to formulate a set of short and medium-term recommendations for developing and improving the model. Finally, we look at what might become possible for the model over a much longer time frame – looking towards developing a ‘Pensim3’ model over the next decade or so

Can we estimate the impact of the choices package in pathways to work?

The Pathways to Work programme is an important policy innovation in Britain. It provides greater support, obligations and incentives for claimants of incapacity benefits with the goal of encouraging employment. The programme has various components, including a 'Choices' package. 'Choices' is the collective name for a variety of voluntary schemes intended to improve labour market readiness and opportunities. Previous quantitative research has focused on the overall impact of Pathways to Work while this study was designed to look at the impact of the Choices component

Early quantitative evidence on the impact of the pathways to work pilots

Since October 2003 the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) has been piloting reforms in England, Scotland and Wales which provide greater support alongside greater obligations to encourage many new claimants of incapacity benefits to move into paid work. The Pathways to Work package of reforms includes: a series of usually mandatory workfocused interviews; programmes designed to boost claimants' prospects of being able to work; and increased financial incentives for individuals to enter paid employment. As part of a quantitative assessment of the impact of the programme, a telephone survey of those making an initial enquiry to Jobcentre Plus about claiming incapacity benefits was conducted in both pilot and comparison areas before and after the pilots were implemented. This report focuses on the differences in some early quantitative outcomes between Pathways and non-Pathways areas. Two empirical techniques are used to investigate the early impact of the pilots on employment, earnings, receipt of incapacity benefits, and a potential indicator of the extent to which individuals' health affects their everyday activities. The analysis was undertaken by researchers at the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the telephone interviews were undertaken by the National Centre for Social Research. All these findings are preliminary: more comprehensive analysis will be conducted in later stages of the evaluation. This report analyses outcomes at a time shortly after the pilots started. Further analysis of outcomes will assess Pathways to Work using survey and administrative data from a later cohort and will examine outcomes over a longer period of time

Pensioner poverty over the next decade: what role for tax and benefit reform?

Recent falls in poverty amongst those aged 65 and over are unlikely to continue after 2007-08, even after the implementation of the proposals outlined in the Government's Pensions White Paper. This report looks at the prospects for pensioner poverty in England over the next decade. The authors find that that the proportion of those aged 65 and over living in poverty is set to remain at its current level - around one-in-five - between 2007-08 and 2017-18. This is despite the overall increase in the generosity of state pensions arising from the Pensions White Paper, and the fact that younger cohorts are expected to have more private pension income and higher employment rates at older ages than those preceding them

Featured Department: Department of Veterinary Obstetrics and Radiology

Since there are two specialties represented in the Department of Obstetrics and Radiology, and since the interests of readers vary, this article will be divided into Obstetrics and Radiology to conserve the time of those interested in one or the other. Under each of these two headings will be discussed a brief historical background, personnel, pedagogical activities, equipment and facilities, research and plans for the future

A cost-benefit analysis of pathways to work for new and repeat incapacity benefits claimants

This latest research forms part of a comprehensive independent evaluation of Pathways to Work. The report is based on a cost-benefit analysis conducted by a consortium of researchers from the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the University of Maryland, Baltimore County and the Policy Studies Institute. It examines whether the financial benefits from Pathways are larger or smaller than its costs and the generalisability of some of the quantitative findings. The estimates of costs and benefits relate to new and repeat incapacity benefits claimants in the seven original Jobcentre Plus districts. The overall findings provide a favourable impression of the financial benefits of the Pathways to Work for new and repeat incapacity benefits claimants, for the Exchequer and hence, for society as a whole

Long-term effects of adolescent stress on neophobic behaviors in zebra finches are modulated by social context when in adulthood

Funding was provided by a BBSRC Research Fellowship to KAS and a University of St Andrews postgraduate scholarship to MGE.Experiencing stress during adolescence can increase neophobic behaviors in adulthood, but most tests have been conducted in the absence of conspecifics. Conspecifics can modulate responses to stressors, for example by acting as ‘social buffers’ to attenuate the aversive appraisal of stressors. Here, we investigate the long-term effects of adolescent stress on the behavioral responses to novel stimuli (a mild stressor) across social contexts in an affiliative passerine bird, the zebra finch. During early (days 40–60) or late (days 65–85) adolescence the birds (n = 66) were dosed with either saline or the hormone corticosterone (CORT). CORT was given in order to mimic a physiological stress response and saline was given as a control. In adulthood, the birds' behavioral responses to a novel environment were recorded in both the presence and absence of conspecifics. An acute CORT response was also quantified in adolescence and adulthood. Our findings show clear evidence of social context mediating any long-term effects of adolescent stress. In the presence of familiar conspecifics no treatment effects were detected. Individually, birds dosed with CORT in early adolescence were slower to enter a novel environment, spent more time perching in the same novel environment, and, if female, engaged in more risk assessment. Birds dosed in late adolescence were unaffected. No treatment effects were detected on CORT, but adolescents had a higher CORT concentration than adults. Our results are the first to suggest that familiar conspecifics in adulthood can buffer the long-term effects of stress that occurred during early adolescence.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe