Spatial Heterogeneity Association of HIV Incidence with Socio-economic Factors in Zimbabwe

This study examined the spatial heterogeneity association of HIV incidence and socio-economic factors including poverty severity index,permanently employed females and males, unemployed females, percentage of poor households i.e., poverty prevalence, night lights index, literacy rate,household food security, and Gini index at district level in Zimbabwe.A mix of spatial analysis methods including Poisson model based on original log likelihood ratios (LLR), global Moran’s I, local indicator of spatial association - LISA were employed to determine the HIV hotspots.Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression (GWPR) and semi-parametric GWPR (s-GWPR) were used to determine the spatial association between HIV incidence and socio-economic factors. HIV incidence (number of cases per 1000) ranged from 0.6 (Buhera district) to 13.30 (Mangwe district). Spatial clustering of HIV incidence was observed (Global Moran’s I = - 0.150; Z score 3.038; p-value 0.002). Significant clusters of HIV were observed at district level. HIV incidence and its association with socioeconomic factors varied across the districts except percentage of females unemployed. Intervention programmes to reduce HIV incidence should address the identified socio-economic factors at district level

An adaptation of a macroscale methodology to assess the direct economic losses caused by Tropical Cyclone Idai in Zimbabwe

Tropical cyclones are among the costliest disasters in the world, with reported losses amounting to billions of US dollars on an annual basis. To reduce the impact of disasters including cyclones, Zimbabwe signed the Sendai Framework whose Target C is aimed at reducing the direct economic losses of disasters. Under the direction of the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), an open-ended intergovernmental expert working group (OIEWG) developed a simple methodology for estimating direct disaster-economic loss. Therefore, this study tested the applicability of the OIEWG methodology in assessing the direct economic losses induced by Tropical Cyclone Idai (TCI) in Zimbabwe. The results revealed that TCI inflicted huge losses in most sectors of the economy, notably the housing, agriculture and the critical infrastructure. The sectoral analysis approach of the OIEWG methodology worked well in distinguishing direct and indirect loses as well as in underlining the need to adopt and effectively implement adequate risk reduction strategies in the built environment. Strengthening such strategies such as the ‘build back better’ principle, cyclone forecasting and warning systems and constructing cyclone-resilient infrastructure is critical in order to minimise direct losses attributed to cyclones

A composite inherent resilience index for Zimbabwe:An adaptation of the disaster resilience of place model

Building resilience to disasters has become a strategic goal of many risk reduction programs across the globe. This is because resilience ensures that communities develop capacities which prevent or minimise loses to disasters. In view of this, there is need to develop a baseline that tracks changes in resilience through time. This study responded to this gap in Zimbabwe by developing composite resilience indices (CRI) using 26 variables that reflected 5 subdomains of resilience: community capital, economic, infrastructure, social and health. The CRI were then used to map the spatial variation of resilience across 91 districts. The results show that the majority of the districts with below moderate resilience are mainly rural and marginalised, while the most resilient districts emerged in urban areas where service provision and infrastructure are better developed. These findings were further subjected to factor analyses which deconstructed the overall CRI and identified six latent factors behind resilience: infrastructure, health, household head, and income, access to maize and fortified food. These factors were mapped in a GIS environment to show their geographic variation in the country. Furthermore, Moran's Index and the Getis Ord Gi* statistical tests were applied to determine clusters of resilience across space. Results confirmed the spatial clustering of CRI. The results are therefore, useful in planning mitigation, response and preparedness measures across the country

Perceived impacts of climate variability and change:an exploration of farmers’ adaptation strategies in Zimbabwe’s intensive farming region

Climate variability and change (CVC) affect many economic sectors including agriculture. In order to alleviate the negative impact of CVC on food production, farmers must adopt a range of strategies. However, the strategies will be less effective if farmers’ perceptions on CVC are not considered. This study therefore, examined the perceptions of commercial farmers on CVC and their adaptation strategies to the perceived impacts. It used a cross-sectional survey involving 365 farmers in the intensive farming region of Zimbabwe. Results showed that farmers’ perceptions on increasing temperatures and decreasing rainfall amounts were cognate with climate data from the meteorological office. The findings also demonstrated that farmers were well aware of the CVC impacts on their livelihoods. These include increases in the frequency and severity of drought, and a shortening of the length of the rainy season. However, the most significant changes were observed among the natural and economic capitals including soil salinization, reduction in grazing pastures, fodder and crop yields in addition to increases in food prices. In response to the perceived impacts of local CVC, the farmers were adopting crop and land use management strategies that include planting rotation, cultivating short-season varieties and drought tolerant crops, crop and farm diversification, intensified irrigation, agroforestry, soil moisture conservation and mixed farming. The study concludes that farmers are active observers of local CVC. Therefore, they should modify their agricultural calendar and diversify their farming systems so as to better meet current and future risks from CVC

Building resilience to food insecurity in rural communities: Evidence from traditional institutions in Zimbabwe

Many rural communities that depend on smallholder farming face food insecurity induced by climate-related disasters. In response, some communities are taking the initiative to cope and adapt to climate-related disasters. Using case study material from the Zambezi Valley, Zimbabwe, this article examines how traditional institutions are enhancing resilience to food insecurity in rural areas. The data were collected through interviews and focus groups involving traditional leaders, ward councillors, village civil protection members and villagers selected in the valley. The findings point to how the Zunde raMambo informal safety net, nhimbe form of collective work and the practice of share-rearing arrangement to access draught power help save lives and alleviate food insecurity induced by flood or drought disasters. The study concludes that the three schemes are evidence of community reorganisation or change in response to food insecurity. They are a form of absorptive capacities enabling the community to cope with food insecurity

Assessing Progress in Reducing the Number of Disaster-affected People: Insights from Zimbabwe

In 2015, 187 countries appended their signatures to the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. This framework has seven global targets which need to be monitored both at national and global levels. In order to promote the monitoring and reporting on progress in attaining the global targets, the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction provided some technical guidance notes and methodologies. Using the case study of Zimbabwe, this study used the technical guidance notes and methodologies to assess the country’s progress in reducing the number of people affected by disasters. Quantitative data for this assessment came from public sources published by the Government of Zimbabwe spanning the period 1990 to 2019. This data was analysed using 3-year and 5-year moving averages. In addition, the study used qualitative interviews to explain the trends in the number of people affected by disasters. Results showed slight decreases in the number of people affected by both aggregated and disaggregated disasters. Drought disasters emerged as the only one that affected millions of people yearly. However, storms and epidemics were sporadic and characterised by big spikes. The study concluded that Zimbabwe is slowly attaining Target B. The study further offered three policy implications that are meant to significantly reduce the number of people affected by disasters. This includes the need to strengthen drought preparedness/mitigation, and disease surveillance and control systems

An approach for measuring social vulnerability in context: The case of flood hazards in Muzarabani district, Zimbabwe

Understanding the complexity of vulnerability to disasters, including those triggered by floods, droughts and epidemics is at the heart of disaster risk reduction. Despite its importance in disaster risk reduction, there remains a paucity of approaches that contribute to our understanding of social vulnerability that is hidden in dynamic contextual conditions. The study demonstrates an accessible means to assessing the spatial variation of social vulnerability to flood hazards and related for the context of Muzarabani district in northeast Zimbabwe. The study facilitated local identification with residents of variables contributing to social vulnerability and used the principal component analysis (PCA) technique to develop a social vulnerability index (SoVI). Using ArcMap10.2 geographic information systems (GIS) tool, the study mapped composite SoVI at the ward level. The results showed that Muzarabani district is socially vulnerable to hazards. The social vulnerability is influenced by a variety of economic, social and institutional factors that vary across the wards. Quantifying and visualising social vulnerability in Muzarabani provides useful information for decision makers to support disaster preparedness and mitigation programmes. The approach shows how spatially distributed multivariate vulnerability, as grounded in interpretations at local level, can be quantitatively derived for contexts such as those of Muzarabani. The study findings can inform disaster risk reduction communities and cognate disciplines on quantitative assessments for managing hazard vulnerability where these have hitherto not been developed

Adaptation to drought in arid and semi-arid environments: Case of the Zambezi Valley, Zimbabwe

Small-scale rain-fed agriculture is the main livelihood in arid to semi-arid regions of subSaharan Africa. The area is characterised by erratic rainfall and frequent droughts, making the capacity for coping with temporal water shortages essential for smallholder farmers. Focusing on the Zambezi Valley, Zimbabwe, this study investigates the impact of drought on food security and the strategies used by smallholder farmers to cope with drought. We used meteorological data and interviews to examine the rainfall variability in the study area and the drought-coping mechanisms employed by smallholder famers respectively. The results show that there are various strategies used by smallholder farmers to cope with the impact of drought. These strategies include drought-tolerant crop production, crop variety diversification, purchasing cereals through asset sales, non-governmental organisations’ food aid and gathering wild fruit. However, consecutive droughts have resulted in high food insecurity and depletion of household assets during droughts. Smallholder farmers in the valley have also resorted to a number of measures taken before, during and after the drought. Still, these strategies are not robust enough to cope with this uncertaint