Energy, knowledge, and Demo-Economic Development in the Long-Run : A Unified Growth Model: Cahiers de l'Economie, Série Recherche, n° 134

Because energy is usually absent from modern growth analysis, Unified growth models designed to study the economic take-off process have tended to focus on the role of human capital accumulation and its interaction with technical change. However, prominent economic historians claim that the transition to coal and its use in steam engines was the main driver of the Industrial Revolution. In order to try to reunite these diverging point of views, we provide in this article a quantitative analysis of the role of energy in long-term growth, accounting for the interaction between human capital accumulation and technological change. To do so, we design a unified growth model featuring fertility and educational choices, energy resources extraction, directed technical change, and endogenous general purpose technologies (GPTs) diffusion. The associated energy transition results from the endogenous shortage in the availability of renewable resources (wood), and the arrival of new GPTs that, together, redirect technical change towards the exploitation of previously unprofitable exhaustible energy (coal). A calibrated version of the model replicates the historical episode of the British Industrial Revolution, for which counterfactual simulations are performed to characterize the impact of the energy transition on the timing and magnitude of the economic take-off. Another numerical exercise provides a comparative analysis of Western Europe and Eastern Asia, emphasizing the relevance of discrepancies in terms of energy resources accessibility to explain the diverging dynamics of thesetwo world regions. Our findings show that, whenever demographic dynamics and human capital accumulation are accounted for, energy use appears as a vital catalyst for the economic take-off process

Croissance économique, utilisation de l'énergie et changement climatique

La transition énergétique nécessite une évolution des structures productives et financières afin de développer, financer et déployer des actifs peu intensifs en carbone. S’appuyant sur une approche historique et prospective, cette thèse propose quatre essais contribuant à l’analyse de la soutenabilité d’une telle transition sous une approche structurelle. Le premier chapitre se concentre sur le rôle de l’énergie dans la croissance à long terme lors de la révolution industrielle. Nous montrons qu’une fois pris en compte le capital humain, le progrès technique et la démographie, l’énergie apparaît davantage comme un catalyseur que comme une cause profonde de la croissance moderne. Ces résultats suggèrent qu’une croissance économique non dépendante des ressources fossiles serait réalisable, mais qu’elle pourrait présenter des coûts de transition importants, notamment en raison de la dépendance au sentier technologique. Les deux chapitres suivants portent sur l’arbitrage entre stabilité financière et soutenabilité climatique au niveau mondial. Nous montrons qu’un paquet de politiques climatiques volontaristes est nécessaire pour atteindre un sentier de croissance équilibré maitrisant ces deux risques. Le dernier chapitre traite de l’attitude des citoyens à travers l’étude du financement participatif des énergies renouvelables en France. Nous montrons que le cadre d’action politique est essentiel pour le succès d’un tel instrument, qui est pertinent pour diversifier et sensibiliser la base d’investisseurs. Ces derniers seraient avant tout guidés par leurs opinions sur la durabilité du secteur, la transparence des opportunités d’investissement et la perception des risques.Achieving the energy shift requires an evolution of the structural and financial structures to develop, finance, and deploy low-carbon assets. Based on a historical and prospective approach, this PhD thesis develops four essays devoted to an analysis of the viability of the energy shift within the framework of a structural approach. The first chapter focuses on the role of energy in long-term growth focusing on the industrial revolution. We show that, once human capital, technical progress and demography are taken into account, energy appears more as a catalyst than as a root cause of modern economic growth. These results suggest that non-fossil fuel-dependent growth may be possible, but that it may have potentially large transition costs, particularly because of the dependence on technological pathways. The second and third chapters address the trade-off between financial and climate sustainability at the global level. We show that a comprehensive and proactive set of climate policies is needed to achieve a balanced growth path and to control both risks. The last chapter deals with citizens’ attitudes towards renewable energy financing through the case of crowdfunding in France, a relevant instrument to diversify the investor base and raise awareness. We show that the policy framework is essential for the success of such instruments, as investors are mainly guided by their views on the sustainability of the sector, the transparency of investment opportunities and the perception of risks

Financial impacts of climate change mitigation policies and their macroeconomic implications: a stock-flow consistent approach

International audienceTo what extent can worldwide carbon pricing foster the transition towards a low-carbon economy and mitigate the effects of global warming? We address this question by assessing the financial impacts and macroeconomic implications of carbon pricing and public subsidies. More specifically, we evaluate the extent to which such policies are sustainable by computing the probability of remaining below two thresholds that we argue to be indicative of the stability of our current economy and climate: (1) a temperature anomaly above +2°C (a commonly acknowledged target, including in the 2015 Paris Agreement, to potentially avoid nonlinearities in the climate system) and (2) a large global debt-to-output ratio of 270%

Energy, knowledge, and demo-economic development in the long run: a unified growth model

This article provides a knowledge-based and energy-centred unified growth model of the transition from limited to sustained economic growth. We model the transition between: (i) a pre-modern organic regime defined by limited growth in per capita output, high fertility, low levels of human capital, technical change generated by learning-by-doing, and rare general purpose technology (GPT) arrivals; and (ii) a modern fossil regime characterized by sustained growth in per capita output, low fertility, high levels of human capital, technical change generated by profit-motivated R&D, and increasingly frequent GPT arrivals. The associated energy transition results from the endogenous shortage in the availability of renewable resources, and the arrival of new GPTs that, together, redirect technical change towards the exploitation of previously unprofitable exhaustible energy. A calibrated version of the model replicates the historical experience of Great Britain from 1700 to 1960. Counterfactual simulations are performed to characterize the impact of the energy transition on the timing and magnitude of the British economic take-off. Another simulation exercise compares the different trajectories of Western Europe and Eastern Asia to determine which parameters of our model are the most crucial to reflect the diverging dynamics of these two world regions