Combining serological and contact data to derive target immunity levels for achieving and maintaining measles elimination

AbstractBackgroundVaccination has reduced the global incidence of measles to the lowest rates in history. However, local interruption of measles virus transmission requires sustained high levels of population immunity that can be challenging to achieve and maintain. The herd immunity threshold for measles is typically stipulated at 90–95%. This figure does not easily translate into age-specific immunity levels required to interrupt transmission. Previous estimates of such levels were based on speculative contact patterns based on historical data from high-income countries. The aim of this study was to determine age-specific immunity levels that would ensure elimination of measles when taking into account empirically observed contact patterns.MethodsWe combined estimated immunity levels from serological data in 17 countries with studies of age-specific mixing patterns to derive contact-adjusted immunity levels. We then compared these to case data from the 10 years following the seroprevalence studies to establish a contact-adjusted immunity threshold for elimination. We lastly combined a range of hypothetical immunity profiles with contact data from a wide range of socioeconomic and demographic settings to determine whether they would be sufficient for elimination.ResultsWe found that contact-adjusted immunity levels were able to predict whether countries would experience outbreaks in the decade following the serological studies in about 70% of countries. The corresponding threshold level of contact-adjusted immunity was found to be 93%, corresponding to an average basic reproduction number of approximately 14. Testing different scenarios of immunity with this threshold level using contact studies from around the world, we found that 95% immunity would have to be achieved by the age of five and maintained across older age groups to guarantee elimination. This reflects a greater level of immunity required in 5–9 year olds than established previously.ConclusionsThe immunity levels we found necessary for measles elimination are higher than previous guidance. The importance of achieving high immunity levels in 5–9 year olds presents both a challenge and an opportunity. While such high levels can be difficult to achieve, school entry provides an opportunity to ensure sufficient vaccination coverage. Combined with observations of contact patterns, further national and sub-national serological studies could serve to highlight key gaps in immunity that need to be filled in order to achieve national and regional measles elimination.</jats:sec

Outbreak of beriberi among African union troops in Mogadishu, Somalia

Context and Objectives: In July 2009, WHO and partners were notified of a large outbreak of unknown illness, including deaths, among African Union (AU) soldiers in Mogadishu. Illnesses were characterized by peripheral edema, dyspnea, palpitations, and fever. Our objectives were to determine the cause of the outbreak, and to design and recommend control strategies. Design, Setting, and Participants: The illness was defined as acute onset of lower limb edema, with dyspnea, chest pain, palpitations, nausea, vomiting, abdominal pain, or headache. Investigations in Nairobi and Mogadishu included clinical, epidemiologic, environmental, and laboratory studies. A case-control study was performed to identify risk factors for illness. Results: From April 26, 2009 to May 1, 2010, 241 AU soldiers had lower limb edema and at least one additional symptom; four patients died. At least 52 soldiers were airlifted to hospitals in Kenya and Uganda. Four of 31 hospitalized patients in Kenya had right-sided heart failure with pulmonary hypertension. Initial laboratory investigations did not reveal hematologic, metabolic, infectious or toxicological abnormalities. Illness was associated with exclusive consumption of food provided to troops (not eating locally acquired foods) and a high level of insecurity (e.g., being exposed to enemy fire on a daily basis). Because the syndrome was clinically compatible with wet beriberi, thiamine was administered to ill soldiers, resulting in rapid and dramatic resolution. Blood samples taken from 16 cases prior to treatment showed increased levels of erythrocyte transketolase activation coefficient, consistent with thiamine deficiency. With mass thiamine supplementation for healthy troops, the number of subsequent beriberi cases decreased with no further deaths reported. Conclusions: An outbreak of wet beriberi caused by thiamine deficiency due to restricted diet occurred among soldiers in a modern, well-equipped army. Vigilance to ensure adequate micronutrient intake must be a priority in populations completely dependent upon nutritional support from external sources

Combining serological and contact data to derive target immunity levels for achieving and maintaining measles elimination.

BACKGROUND: Vaccination has reduced the global incidence of measles to the lowest rates in history. However, local interruption of measles virus transmission requires sustained high levels of population immunity that can be challenging to achieve and maintain. The herd immunity threshold for measles is typically stipulated at 90-95%. This figure does not easily translate into age-specific immunity levels required to interrupt transmission. Previous estimates of such levels were based on speculative contact patterns based on historical data from high-income countries. The aim of this study was to determine age-specific immunity levels that would ensure elimination of measles when taking into account empirically observed contact patterns. METHODS: We combined estimated immunity levels from serological data in 17 countries with studies of age-specific mixing patterns to derive contact-adjusted immunity levels. We then compared these to case data from the 10 years following the seroprevalence studies to establish a contact-adjusted immunity threshold for elimination. We lastly combined a range of hypothetical immunity profiles with contact data from a wide range of socioeconomic and demographic settings to determine whether they would be sufficient for elimination. RESULTS: We found that contact-adjusted immunity levels were able to predict whether countries would experience outbreaks in the decade following the serological studies in about 70% of countries. The corresponding threshold level of contact-adjusted immunity was found to be 93%, corresponding to an average basic reproduction number of approximately 14. Testing different scenarios of immunity with this threshold level using contact studies from around the world, we found that 95% immunity would have to be achieved by the age of five and maintained across older age groups to guarantee elimination. This reflects a greater level of immunity required in 5-9-year-olds than established previously. CONCLUSIONS: The immunity levels we found necessary for measles elimination are higher than previous guidance. The importance of achieving high immunity levels in 5-9-year-olds presents both a challenge and an opportunity. While such high levels can be difficult to achieve, school entry provides an opportunity to ensure sufficient vaccination coverage. Combined with observations of contact patterns, further national and sub-national serological studies could serve to highlight key gaps in immunity that need to be filled in order to achieve national and regional measles elimination

Viral shedding in patients infected with pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in Kenya, 2009

Understanding shedding patterns of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) (pH1N1) can inform recommendations about infection control measures. We evaluated the duration of pH1N1 virus shedding in patients in Nairobi, Kenya. Nasopharyngeal (NP) and oropharyngeal (OP) specimens were collected from consenting laboratory-confirmed pH1N1 cases every 2 days during October 14-November 25, 2009, and tested at the Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention-Kenya by real time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR). A subset of rRT-PCR-positive samples was cultured. Of 285 NP/OP specimens from patients with acute respiratory illness, 140 (49%) tested positive for pH1N1 by rRT-PCR; 106 (76%) patients consented and were enrolled. The median age was 6 years (Range: 4 months-41 years); only two patients, both asthmatic, received oseltamivir. The median duration of pH1N1 detection after illness onset was 8 days (95% CI: 7-10 days) for rRT-PCR and 3 days (Range: 0-13 days) for viral isolation. Viable pH1N1 virus was isolated from 132/162 (81%) of rRT-PCR-positive specimens, which included 118/125 (94%) rRT-PCR-positive specimens collected on day 0-7 after symptoms onset. Viral RNA was detectable in 18 (17%) and virus isolated in 7/18 (39%) of specimens collected from patients after all their symptoms had resolved. In this cohort, pH1N1 was detected by rRT-PCR for a median of 8 days. There was a strong correlation between rRT-PCR results and virus isolation in the first week of illness. In some patients, pH1N1 virus was detectable after all their symptoms had resolved

Signs and Symptoms associated with pH1N1 rRT-PCR-positive test results.

<p>*This information was not obtained from patients <5 years old.</p

Kaplan Meier plot showing the probability of rRT-PCR-positive pH1N1 test result by day after symptom onset.

<p>Kaplan Meier plot showing the probability of rRT-PCR-positive pH1N1 test result by day after symptom onset.</p

Demographic characteristics of 285 patients with acute respiratory illness who presented to Kibera Clinic, Nairobi, Kenya and had specimens collected, Oct–Nov 2009.

<p>*16 people were tested for HIV.</p

Results of case control study conducted August 19–21, 2009 in Mogadishu, Somalia.

<p>*Statistically significant (p<0.05).</p

Number of surveillance participants and exclusions from study analysis – Kibera and Lwak, Kenya, 2009–2010.

<p>Number of surveillance participants and exclusions from study analysis – Kibera and Lwak, Kenya, 2009–2010.</p