Probability of lek collapse was calculated using Bayesian binomial probability from 2001–2013 in Wyoming based on leks located 1.61 km (1 mi), 4.83 km (3 mi) outside Core Areas and the Core-Core Area.

<p>All probabilities are independent probabilities of collapse; however probabilities have been displayed as continuous for easier viewing. The vertical line at 2008 indicates the year in which the SGEO was enacted. The 95% credibility intervals have not been included, but all CI’s overlap.</p

Predicted percent change in Core Area lek attendance as a function of oil and gas development adjacent to Core Area boundaries.

<p>We used the linear model from the regression of Core Area lek attendance for leks within 1.61 km and 4.83 km of the Core Area boundary against oil and gas development density within 1.61 km and 4.83 km outside of the Core Area boundary to predict the percent decline in lek attendance of Core Area leks.</p

Probability of lek collapse was calculated independently for each year using a Bayesian binomial probability function of the Core Area leks and non-core area leks in Wyoming, 2001–2013.

<p>All probabilities are independent probabilities of collapse, however probabilities have been displayed as continuous for easier viewing. The vertical line at 2008 indicates the year in which the SGEO was enacted. The 95% credibility interval is given for each year.</p

Summary statistics of male lek counts for greater sage-grouse in Wyoming, USA, 1999–2013.

<p>Summary statistics of male lek counts for greater sage-grouse in Wyoming, USA, 1999–2013.</p

Observed population trends from male lek counts inside and outside of Core Areas, by year, from 2001–2013 in Wyoming.

<p>The vertical line at 2008 indicates the year in which the SGEO was enacted.</p

Probability of lek collapse is lower inside sage-grouse Core Areas: Effectiveness of conservation policy for a landscape species - Fig 1

<p><b>(A) Wyoming in relation to the United States. (B) Density of average oil and gas wells per km</b>^<b>2</b><b>(C) 31 sage-grouse Core Areas designated by The State of Wyoming SGEO (version 3) within the distribution of sage-grouse (D) Locations of 2,382 leks archived within the lek database.</b><i>For our</i> study, only leks surveyed from 1999 to 2013 were used. Collectively, these were the data sets that were used to conduct our analysis.</p

Linear regression results of probability of lek collapse within Core Areas versus oil and gas well development densities (DD) outside of Core Area in Wyoming, USA, 2001–2013.

<p>Linear regression results of probability of lek collapse within Core Areas versus oil and gas well development densities (DD) outside of Core Area in Wyoming, USA, 2001–2013.</p