Derivative Exposure and the Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Risks of U.S. Banks

This paper estimates the interest rate and exchange rate risk betas of fifty-nine large U. S. commercial banks for the period of 1975-1992, as well as the bank-specific determinants of these betas. The estimation procedure uses a modified seemingly unrelated simultaneous method that recognizes cross-equation dependencies and adjusts for serial correlation and heteroskedasticity. Overall, the exchange rate risk betas are more significant than the interest rate risk betas. More importantly, we find a link between the scale of a bank's interest rate and currency derivative contracts and the bank's interest rate and exchange rate risks. Particularly noteworthy is the influence of currency derivatives on exchange rate betas.Off-balance sheet, Bank risk Derivatives, Interest rate risk, Exchange risk exposure JEL classification: G2, Gl, F3

Cost of Debt and Federal Home Loan Bank Funding at U.S. Bank and Thrift Holding Companies

We investigate the relationship between the cost of debt issued by bank holding companies (BHCs) and thrift holding companies (THCs) and their use of Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) advances. Cost of debt is used as a measure of bank riskiness for the first time in a FHLB study. A two-equation model of FHLB advances and cost of debt is estimated. Three main results are obtained. First, greater reliance on advances by BHCs and THCs is associated with lower cost of debt in the pre-crisis period, and more strongly so during the crisis, because granting of advances sends a positive signal to the market about FHLB’s support. Second, greater holding company (HC) cost of debt, as an explanatory variable, is associated with smaller advances as FHLBs restrict advances to riskier HCs. Third, we find no separate effect on the cost of debt from FHLB membership. Our results are robust to 3SLS estimation, used to address endogeneity, and to alternative model specifications. The negative association between cost of debt and advances suggests that BHCs and THCs do not use advances to make riskier loans and that FHLB policies and services have some risk-reducing effects which more than offset the effect of potential moral hazards

Federal Home Loan Bank Advances and Bank and Thrift Holding Company Risk: Evidence From the Stock Market

Using bivariate GARCH models of stock portfolio returns and risk, we find that bank and thrift holding companies that relied the most on Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) advances exhibited less total risk and market risk than those that relied on them the least between 2001 and 2012. When we control for differences in holding company size, stock trading volume, residential mortgage lending, and holding company type (bank vs. thrift), the most FHLB-reliant holding companies sustain the aforesaid risk advantages except during the crisis of 2007–2009, when they exhibit greater idiosyncratic risk. The latter finding suggests that investors perceived the high reliance of the borrowing institutions on advances as a sign of distress. Portfolios that consist of only bank holding companies show qualitatively similar results

Real Estate Investment by Bank Holding Companies and Their Risk and Return: Nonparametric and GARCH Procedures

We investigate the association between real estate investment by US Bank Holding Companies (BHCs) and their return, risk and risk-adjusted returns. Three portfolios are formed of BHCs according to whether they do or do not invest in real estate, strictness of the regulation on real estate investment and the ratio of real estate investment to assets. Wilcoxon tests of differences in portfolio returns, risk, risk-adjusted returns and value at risk between each pair of portfolios are conducted to determine how engagement in real estate, stricter regulation and increased real estate investment affect BHC performance. These effects are also investigated within a GARCH framework. Wilcoxon tests indicate that real estate investment or operating under lenient rules lower return and risk-adjusted returns and raise risk. Within GARCH, increases in real estate investment are associated with lower returns and greater systematic risk for BHCs with higher real estate shares in assets. These results indicate that benefits from real estate investment by banks are outweighed by greater variability of real estate prices and BHCs’ lack of expertise in the field. BHCs in the sample invested no more than 4.54% of their assets in real estate, leaving open the possibility that a higher threshold exists, beyond which performance improvements would be manifested

Large capital infusions, investor reactions, and the return and risk performance of financial institutions over the business cycle and recent finanical crisis

The authors examine investors' reactions to announcements of large seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) by U.S. financial institutions (FIs) from 2000 to 2009. These offerings include market infusions as well as injections of government capital under the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). The sample period covers both business cycle expansions and contractions, and the recent financial crisis. They present evidence on the factors affecting FI decisions to issue capital, the determinants of investor reactions, and post-SEO performance of issuers as well as a sample of matching FIs. The authors find that investors reacted negatively to the news of private market SEOs by FIs, both in the immediate term (e.g., the two days surrounding the announcement) and over the subsequent year, but positively to TARP injections. Reactions differed depending on the characteristics of the FIs, stage of the business cycle, and conditions of financial crisis. Larger institutions were less likely to have raised capital through market offerings during the period prior to TARP, and firms receiving a TARP injection tended to be larger than other issuers. The authors find that while TARP may have allowed FIs to increase their lending (as a share of assets) in the year after the issuance, they took on more credit risk to do so. They find no evidence that banks' capital adequacy increased after the capital injections.Securities ; Financial services industry ; Banks and banking

International interdependence of an emerging market: the case of Iran

In this study the interdependence between Iran, its major trading partners and the United States is investigated using vector autoregression, generalized impulse response function and generalized variance decomposition techniques, introduced by Pesaran and Shin (1998). These techniques have an advantage over the commonly used impulse response and variance decomposition procedures in that they are insensitive to the ordering of the countries considered and hence, they produce more reliable results. The countries included in the sample, besides Iran are, France, Germany, Spain, Japan, South Korea, Brazil, Italy and the United States. The direction, strength, durability and stability of the effect of shocks in one market on the return patterns of the other markets are examined. The findings are 4-fold. First, the effect of past own market shocks on current behaviour is significant, beyond the first month, in most cases. Second, the own effect is stronger for the emerging markets such as Iran and Brazil, than the industrialized countries. Third, cross-country effects are short-lived for Brazil, Korea and Japan, but durable in the case of Iran, Germany, Spain and the United States. Fourth, in terms of breadth and strength, cross-country effects exhibit differential degrees of interdependence and asymmetry. The observed lack of integration between the Iranian market and the industrialized world makes it less vulnerable to the effect of shocks in the latter countries but it also deprives it from the flow of funds that could spur economic development and growth

Determinants of corporate cash holdings: An application of a robust variable selection technique

US firm cash holdings have become increasingly concentrated over time withering shareholder returns and heightening agency problems associated with free cash flows. We investigate the determinants of corporate cash holdings using a robust regression technique (the Least Absolute Deviation Regression, LAD) and a state-of-the-art variable selection procedure (The Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator, LASSO). This framework identifies a sparse model which is also resistant to outliers. We obtain several results. First, the median absolute errors of the LAD-LASSOselected variables is significantly lower than the corresponding values of the basic determinants commonly used in the literature, in both in-sample and out-of-sample schemes. Second, financial leverage is a key determinant of cash holdings, indicating that cash and debt policies are tightly related (debt-cash substitutability). Third, none of the corporate governance proxies identified in the literature as a corporate cash holding determinant (managerial ownership, board independence, CEO duality, board size, and institutional ownership) is selected by the LAD-LASSO method, challenging the potency of governance mechanism in corporate cash management. Fourth, the financial crisis of 2008 dramatically changed the selected predictors for cash holdings as well as requiring additional predictors for the period, though their number was heavily curtailed after the period. Fifth, the money demand function is different between financially constrained and unconstrained firms, in both combination and number of influential variables. Finally, prediction error of the LAD-LASSO-based cash model is smaller than that of the principal components regression in both in-sample and out-ofsample prediction. Our findings are of importance to corporate cash managers, shareholders, monetary policy authorities, and scholars on the issues such as adjustment speed of cash holdings and valuation of excess cash reserves, which are based on the fitted values from the cash model