Behavioral results.

<p>Left panel: Mean causal judgments across the four 64-trial blocks, for the two uncertainty conditions (MaxU; MidU). Right panel: Probability of a positive prediction (“the outcome will occur”) in the presence and the absence of the cue, averaged across trials, for each 32-trial sub-block and the two uncertainty conditions. Error bars denote standard errors of the mean.</p

Fitting-quality parameters, for the models of co-activation identified by SEM analysis¹, and the two uncertainty conditions.

1<p>NPAR, number of parameters in the model,;AIC, Akaike Information Criterion; CMIN, Chi-square; NFI, (Bentler-Bonett) normed fit index; PNFI, parsimony normed fit index; RMSEA, root mean square error of approximation.</p

Timing of the events in each trial of the HCL learning task.

<p>Timing of the events in each trial of the HCL learning task.</p

Graphical depiction of SEM results: brain networks for uncertainty and expectancy.

<p>Best-fitting models accounting for co-activation in the MaxU (top panel) and the MinU (bottom panel) conditions, according to the structural equation model (SEM) analysis. All the solid arrows are significant at <i>p</i><.03. Dashed arrows, Model 1 <i>p</i> = .08, Model 2 <i>p</i> = .18.</p

Brain locations in which current source density was significantly correlated (<i>R</i>²) with SPN-Outcome score, at least in one of the two uncertainty conditions (MaxU, MinU).

<p>Note: *<i>p</i><.05. BA: Brodmann area. X, Y, and Z coordinates are in MNI space for the voxel with the maximal relationship with SPN-Outcome score (<i>R</i>²). k is the cluster size in voxels.</p